Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Governors? Forum, Bala Mohammed, and the Fourth Republic Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, have continued to shape the political schemes in the Northeast geopolitical zone. As the two leaders try to lionise their political fortunes, a lot depends on what eventually becomes of the PDP structure in the zone, LEO SOBECHI and RAUF OYEWOLE report.

Recently, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar had to denounce a false letter of resignation regarding his membership in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While Atiku?s refutation of any plans to leave the party was making the rounds in the polity, the former Vice President?s son, Aliu Abubakar, who is Turakin Adamawa; came under attacks for his visit to the Emir of Fufore, Muhammad Sani Ribadu, who is brother to the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu.

Aliu?s visit to the Emir gained political colouration because prior to his appointment as NSA, Ribadu had not only aspired to be President of Nigeria but also sought to be the governor of their home state, Adamawa.

And, although Turakin (Aliu) is married to the NSA?s daughter, the fact that Governor Ahmadu Fintri?s creation of the Fufore Emirate was seen as an attempt to lower the influence of the Lamido of Adamawa, Dr. Muhammadu Barkindo Mustapha, and therefore displace Atiku?s traditional title of Wazirin Adamawa.

Explaining that he was more of a social rather than political visit, Aliu regretted that some commentators went as far as describing his visit ?as an endorsement of the newly created Future Emirate.? He underscored that ?the new emir is an uncle to my dear wife.?

Aliu?s position was further complicated by his father?s subdued angst that Governor Fintri had to carry out the surgical operation on the Emirate without as much as a whisper to him. And, as the calculations for the 2027 general election cycle draws near, the two families are seen as potential major players.

While NSA is being associated with a possible running mate position to President Bola Tinubu, the former Vice President has not been forthcoming as to whether he would seek another shot at the presidency or not.

But, as Atiku sustained his ambivalent postures, his moves and supporters leave tell-tale signs that will stop at nothing to re-contest. The former Vice President had once disclosed that as long as he remains in good health, he would not recoil from any opportunity to serve Nigeria and its people.

Worries, social versus political

Nonetheless, the recent social altercation between AAA?s supporters and his son, Aliu, gained currency as part of the wind blowing against the former Vice President?s future political interests.

For instance, in a pragmatic effort to ensure that he does not lose his immediate political base of Adamawa, Atiku had not long ago paid a social visit to the 2023 gubernatorial candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed.

Recall that Binani, as all and sundry fondly call her, defeated the NSA and Jibril Bindow to pick the party?s governorship ticket after representing Adamawa Central Senatorial District in the Senate from 2019 through 2023.

Supporters of the former Vice President reckon that Governor Fintri may have finalised plans to support Bindow, who joined him in PDP after losing the APC ticket, to succeed him in 2027. With the NSA?s larger-than-life image in the APC, the former Vice President is said to be working on the possibility of Binani joining his group preparatory to contesting the governorship as the coalition?s compromise cum consensus choice.

However, while the former vice president is making sure his stronghold is maintained, another strong frontier for political fencing continues to expand in his political platform, the PDP. The internal challenge for Atiku was accentuated not long ago when the Bauchi State governor qualified his purported presidential aspiration by announcing his readiness to align with the 2023 Presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr. Peter Obi.

PDP insiders interpreted Bala Mohammed?s statement as a declaration of his bold determination to retire the Wazirin Adamawa from presidential politics. Others, however, accused the Bauchi governor of punching above his weight, stressing that he misunderstands the leverage afforded him by the leadership of PDP governors as a transcript of national acceptability.

Advantaging incumbency

Atiku versus Bala scheming is not a recent affair. Prior to his advent as the Chairman of PDPGF, the Bauchi State governor had pointedly told the former Vice President to ?go and rest, allow the younger ones? to vie for the presidential post.

Although the governor laid the charge on Atiku when he invited the former number two man to commission a road in 2021, watchers of Northeast politics said Senator Bala?s handling of the PDP Governors? Forum was to advantage himself as a potential presidential flag bearer of the party in 2027.

It is also alleged that the governor fell out with the FCT Minister and former Rivers State Governor, Nyeson Wike, as part of the broader ambition to control PDP at the national level and enjoy a likely right of first refusal for the presidential ticket.

In continuation of the dress rehearsal for national political ascendance, Mohammed has taken his criticism of the Federal Government?s economic policies as a form of strategic positioning. He is said to be working in the quiet confidence that his political nest is already well-feathered as a voice of the North and coming from the Northeast.

That strategy informed his television appearances, particularly mobilising opposition to APC?s policies like the controversial Tax Reform Bill. The governor had alleged that the legislation was aimed at further impoverishing the North, stressing that if the bill sails through, northern states won?t afford to pay salaries.

But, within the fold of PDPGF, Mohammed was accused of installing his associate and media consultant, Emma Agu, a former editor at Daily Times as the Director General of the Governors? Forum.

Also, during the just concluded Northeast Congress, held inside Bauchi State Government House, one of the governor?s loyalists and contractor, Arc. Festus Okoye, was the Chairman Electoral Committee that produced new zonal executives.

Perhaps, in a bid to avoid frontal confrontation with the governor, the former Vice President has not been taking active part in the activities of North East PDP. Some of these instances include, the party?s caucus meeting held in Bauchi in January, and the region?s Congress where new executive members were elected.

PDP stalwarts that attended included PDP governors of Adamawa (Ahmadu Fintiri), Taraba (Kefas Agbu) and the host, Bala Mohammed. The governors left signs that their anointed candidates have been penciled, even as the scheming raised concerns about the waning influence of Atiku and the agenda of retiring the Wazirin Adamawa from active politics.

In furtherance of that single assignment, not long ago, the governor of his home state, Fintiri, stripped him of his popular traditional title, ?Wazirin Adamawa? through the creation of more emirates and chiefdoms. Without batting an eyelid, Governor Fintri declared that ?holding the title of a balkanised emirate is needless.? He expunged the title and that no doubt, affected the former Vice President?s composure as well as those of others affected.

Suing for regional interest

Although he has been vying for the position of president even before 1999, Alhaji Atiku seems to have refined his politics by canvassing for emergence of a President of Northeast extraction, arguing that the region has never produced a President. Of course, after the 2023 election, the former Vice President was likened to a giraffe, which stands as a towering giant, but has his eyes far from the ground around it (North East).

Commenting on the underlying political machinations, a Public Affairs analyst, Comrade Sabo Mohammed, affirmed that although the Northeast is lagging behind and despite Atiku?s experience in national politics, ?he has not been able to actually understand the political environment in which he is operating.?

Sabo stated: ?He is from the Northeast. He needs to actually galvanise the Northeast to actually exert his influence in the Northeast for him to draw support from other regions. That has been his major problem.

?Then for Bala Mohammed, he comes as a strategic politician, who is positioning himself for eventual contest. But, his major problem is his political party, the PDP. If you look at the squabble within PDP and the stipulations of its constitution, they actually acknowledged zoning.

?And, now that it is the turn of the South, how is he going to actually overcome to emerge? This squabble is even a very serious issue, because it actually affects the former vice president Atiku. We already have an incumbent President from the South and certainly the South will ask for eight years.

?So, this is one of the major problems, but I know he can be useful. He can actually align to be vice president for any candidate from the south. If that works in 2027, fine. And if it failed, he could still strategise for 2031.?

Sabo extolled Senator Mohammed?s performance in office, stressing that the governor?s strengths lie through his inclusive leadership style and quality of infrastructure projects.

?Take it or leave it, he has brought young people into his cabinet, which is very novel in Bauchi State. ?In the past, we used to have very old people who were not in tune with reality as the cabinet members. He has also distinguished himself in infrastructure development, especially roads. What is very amazing to me is the quality of roads irrespective of the cost. So these are two areas that he can actually take advantage of and blow his trumpet for the presidency.?

Also speaking on the scheming by the two leaders, Usman Babagana, a social affairs analyst, noted that Atiku is not happy within PDP, particularly due to the intrigues that defined the 2023 general elections.

?Perhaps he is thinking of either forming another political party or trying to affiliate with other parties. In PDP, his chances are very slim taking into account the fact that the likes of Bala Mohammed have taken over.

?And, state governors are very powerful in PDP. They seem to be speaking in one voice in and on their own. So, come 2027, they will prefer a former governor than the former vice president.

?That is the attitude of the governors irrespective of the party affiliation. So, Bala is very strategic and then he is going to give a very good fight to Atiku. I can tell you for a fact that if eventually he decides to quit PDP, he will be creating a bigger chance for the likes of Bala Mohammed.

?Generally speaking, I am of the opinion that these old breeds should actually create space for younger people.? (The Guardian)

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