A report by SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused security intel gathering and consulting firm, has said the Middle Belt security crisis must be handled strategically to avert national instability.

It said for over a decade, Nigeria had grappled with an increasingly violent pastoral conflict that had evolved from localised grazing disputes into a complex national security crisis.

The report stated, ?What began as occasional clashes between nomadic herders and settled farmers have transformed into multi-faceted threats to the country?s stability, food security and social fabric, with particularly devastating consequences in the Middle Belt region.

?The roots of this crises lie in environmental pressures in Nigeria?s northern regions, where progressive desertification and shrinking grazing reserves have forced Fulani pastoralists to move their cattle southward into the fertile Middle Belt, the nation?s agricultural heartland.

?This migration brought them into inevitable conflict with farming communities, especially in states like Benue, Plateau and Nasarawa.?

The intelligence gathering group stressed that by 2015, clear patterns of systematic violence had emerged, including deliberate destruction of crops and food stores and a disturbing strategy of land appropriation, where herders would occupy abandoned farmlands after displacing local populations through violence.

The situation, the group said, deteriorated markedly between 2017 and 2018, as the conflict spread southward while becoming significantly more lethal.

SBM said the nature of violence had now changed fundamentally, as sophisticated weaponry flooded the region and disputes once settled with sticks and machetes now involved AK-47s and military-grade firearms, completely overwhelming traditional conflict resolution mechanisms.

It stated, ?In Benue State, the epicentre of the crisis, the conflict has taken on additional complexities. Beyond the actions of Fulani herdsmen, there are troubling reports of internal complicity, with some residents allegedly providing intelligence to attackers in exchange for financial compensation.

?This dynamic has significantly complicated efforts to curb the violence and identify those orchestrating attacks. The political response has to identify those orchestrating attacks. The political response has also been inconsistent.

?While the previous administration under Governor Samuel Ortom was vocal in its opposition to the violence, often clashing with the federal government, the current state government has adopted a more cautious approach, likely due to its alignment with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Several interlocking factors continue to drive this escalation.?

According to SBM, climate change has further accelerated desertification in the north, while population growth puts pressure on dwindling land resources, in addition to weak governance and inconsistent responses that have failed to establish workable solutions, and the proliferation of arms, which has transformed local disputes into massacres.

Perhaps, most damaging, according to the group, is that the conflict has become dangerously politicised along ethnic and religious lines, with accusations of ?Fulanisation? poisoning inter-communal relations across.

It stated, ?The humanitarian consequences have been catastrophic. Entire communities have been displaced, with over 2.2 million people forced from their homes nationwide and more than 300,000 crowded into makeshift camps in Benue State alone.?

As a result of the conflict, SBM stated that Nigeria?s agricultural output had suffered dramatically, particularly in the Middle Belt, which produced much of the country?s food, contributing to dangerous levels of food price inflation across the country.

It said the conflict had also become entangled with other criminal activities, including cattle rustling and kidnapping for ransom, creating a security nightmare that defies simple solutions.

Despite government interventions, like the National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP) and anti-open grazing laws in several states, the report stated that sustainable solutions remained elusive, while implementation had been patchy at best.

The report said displacement figures had kept growing while food insecurity worsened, with the geographical spread of attacks ? now reaching southern states, like Edo and Ondo ? demonstrating the conflict?s relentless expansion.

The intelligence group stated, ?Addressing this crisis requires a coordinated, multi-faceted approach that goes beyond temporary military solutions.

?Land use reforms must establish clear guidelines for grazing reserves and farmland protection, while the security sector needs an urgent overhaul to control arms proliferation and improve community policing.

?Climate adaptation programmes could help reduce resource competition by supporting alternative livelihoods.

?Most crucially, there must be genuine political will to address root causes rather than symptoms, including governance failures and ethnic divisions.

?Nigeria?s pastoral conflict will continue destabilising the country without decisive, impartial action, with consequences extending far beyond its agricultural heartlands.

?What began as disputes over grazing rights has become one of the most significant threats to Nigeria?s unity and stability in the 21st century.

?The time for comprehensive, coordinated action is not just overdue ? with each passing year of inaction, the path to peaceful resolution becomes more difficult to discern.? (THISDAY)

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