Key opposition leaders yesterday formally announced a coalition aimed at unseating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027, but several unanswered questions linger. Observers are asking how leaders with differing ideologies, ambitions, and party affiliations can work together to fulfil their promise to Nigerians.

Historically, Nigerian electoral victories have often resulted from marriages of convenience rather than ideological unity. Political alliances and coalitions are typically formed out of necessity, driven by the need to secure power. While some have succeeded, many have collapsed due to internal disagreements and power struggles.

What do past coalitions look like?

In the First Republic, the United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) was formed in 1964 as a coalition of opposition parties, including the Action Group (AG) and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC), to challenge the ruling Northern People?s Congress (NPC). The alliance ultimately failed to achieve its goal.

However, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and the Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) formed a strategic alliance in 1979, allowing the NPN to secure a parliamentary majority and form a government.

In 2003, opposition parties such as the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) attempted alliances against the ruling People?s Democratic Party (PDP) but failed to consolidate power.

The most successful coalition in Nigeria?s political history emerged in 2013 when the Action Congress of Nigeria (CAN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and the new PDP (nPDP) merged to form the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This coalition defeated the PDP in the 2015 presidential election, marking the first time an opposition party unseated an incumbent government.

Since then, several efforts have been made to replicate that feat, but all have fallen short.

Opposition announces alliance to sack Tinubu

Thus, when former Vice President Atiku Abubakar on Thursday announced the formation of a coalition of opposition political parties aimed at removing President Tinubu in 2027, the move was met with scepticism.

Atiku made the declaration during a press conference in Abuja, attended by several opposition politicians, including former APC members who had since defected.

Among those present were Peter Obi?s representative, Dr Yunusa Tanko; Babachir David Lawal; Nasir El-Rufai; Segun Sowunmi; Soni Monidafe; Dr Salihu Lukman; Chief Peter Ameh; and Adamu Maina Waziri.

The event was Initially convened to address President Tinubu?s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State over the political crisis there. However, when asked whether the emerging coalition would serve as the main opposition against the APC in the 2027 elections, Atiku confirmed: ?Yes, this is the birth of the coalition of opposition ahead of 2027.?

His statement signalled a significant political realignment, with opposition forces preparing to challenge the APC?s dominance.

President can?t be distracted by sore losers ? Onanuga

Reacting, presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga said the president cannot be distracted by ?the so-called coalition of politicians? he described as ?sore losers?.

In a chat with Daily Trust, Onanuga said ?President Tinubu is focused on governance to build a prosperous country. He is on the way to achieving this. Two months to his midterm, he has many solid achievements to showcase. Intractable problems are being tackled headlong.

?He cannot be distracted by the so-called coalition of politicians. They are not politicians after the public Good. It?s all about their self-interest.?

?They are disgruntled. They are a frustrated lot. The leaders are sore losers. The coalition is an amalgam of Tinubu haters. Their agenda is to stop Tinubu,? he added.

On his part, APC spokesman Felix Morka could not be reached for comment. However, sources within the party indicated that an official response would be issued today (Friday).

But in an earlier reaction to Atiku?s call for opposition leaders to unite in order to ?save? Nigeria?s democracy, Morka had dismissed Atiku?s assertions as ?laughable? and questioned his credibility.

Morka also criticised Atiku, alongside other opposition figures like Obi and El-Rufai, for suggesting that the ruling party was responsible for the internal challenges facing opposition groups.

Atiku, El-Rufai or Obi: Who leads the coalition?

Since losing the 2023 presidential election to Tinubu by about two million votes, Atiku has been at the forefront of calls for an opposition coalition, even alleging that the ruling party aims to establish a one-party state.

An analysis of the 2023 election results suggests that if Atiku and Obi had combined their votes, they could have defeated Tinubu. Tinubu won with 8,794,726 votes (36.61%), while Atiku secured 6,984,520 (29.07%) and Obi got 6,101,533 (25.40%).

In 2019, when Atiku and Obi were on the PDP ticket together, they secured 11,262,978 votes against then incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari?s 15,191,847.

While Atiku has pushed for a coalition since 2023, it was the recent defection of former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) that reignited discussions. After his defection, El-Rufai called on opposition leaders, including Atiku, Obi, and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People?s Party (NNPP), to unite. Kwankwaso finished a distant fourth in the 2023 elections with 1,496,671 votes.

However, Atiku?s ally, former Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido, dismissed the idea, raising questions about Atiku?s stance.

Obi, meanwhile, had repeatedly stated that he was uninterested in a coalition solely focused on defeating the ruling party. However, his recent visit to Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed, where they pledged to collaborate ahead of 2027, altered the political landscape.

With Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai now in the coalition, observers are asking: Who will take the lead?

?With the three of them seen as leaders in their own rights, the question is who the leader is. The main reason they are forming a coalition is that they recognise the need to unite to effectively challenge the APC,? said political analyst, Dr Aminu Hayatu.

However, he noted that while the coalition may not necessarily change government policies, ?the opposition?s presence might deter certain government actions due to fear of criticism.?

How this coalition differs

Unlike past mergers, where political parties dissolved into a single entity, Atiku and his allies currently favour a coalition model. This approach allows them to remain in their respective parties while working towards a shared objective; unseating Tinubu in 2027.

Professor Kamilu Sani Fage, a renowned political analyst, explained that mergers require parties to collapse into one, whereas coalitions allow individuals or parties to collaborate without dismantling their structures.

He noted that the key players likely recognised the challenges of a merger, given the current state of their parties. For Atiku and Obi, their parties (PDP and LP) seem to be at odds with their ambitions. Meanwhile, El-Rufai?s new party, the SDP, has ruled out any merger, insisting it will remain a third force in the 2027 elections.

Approach different from how we defeated Jonathan

A prominent member of the 8th Senate, who was part of the coalition that ousted former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, said that the recent realignments in the political space might not work.

The source, who does not want to be quoted, said: ?The first problem is that they are talking about forming a coalition and not a merger to form a strong political party. This is not what happened ahead of 2015 general election and based on my understanding, this will not work.

?Secondly, for you to remove a sitting president like Tinubu, you need to have a strong leadership, just like what happened in 2013 ahead of the merger when despite our differences we all agreed from the onset that Muhammadu Buhari will be the leader and our potential presidential candidate.

?We all worked along that direction and in the movement, we have strong people including serving governors, technocrats and other people with serious influence in the society,? the source said.

He said after projecting themselves as a single force with firm control over their political parties, they approached the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the registration of APC.

?We achieved all these ahead of the 2015 election and during the primaries, Buhari emerged as the candidate of the APC and we collectively mobilised resources and confronted Jonathan and we defeated him with the massive support from Nigerians.

?Unfortunately, the people that are working to have a coalition now are racing against time, they mostly have personal ambitions. They are also coming on the back of their various political parties. I wonder how this will work in their favour. It is very unlikely to defeat Tinubu with this arrangement.

?Look at how he worked his way ahead of 2023 to get the APC ticket. Now that he has access to enormous resources and the instrument of authority, it will take more than a coalition to defeat him,? he said.

Can the coalition succeed?

But Dr Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, believes opposition leaders do not necessarily need to control a political party to succeed.

He, however, admitted that the coalition is ?faced with great odds because they are dealing with a president who is in full control of the major opposition parties.

?But the secret for success is two-fold. First, they need to respond to the aspirations of needs in choosing a presidential candidate, not to impose themselves. Two, they need to begin to quickly respond and mobilise Nigerians in a showdown with the ruling party and its supporting opposition parties,? he said.

Professor Fage added that the coalition must address a fundamental question; who will be the presidential candidate, and how will that decision be made? He warned that if key figures fail to set aside personal ambitions for the collective goal, the coalition could collapse before 2027.

Dr Hayatu further pointed out that power-sharing within the coalition could be a major hurdle.

?If they remain in their respective parties while working together for elections, how will they decide on candidacy? Each of these leaders has presidential ambitions. Who will step aside for the other? Will the? distribute positions in advance, or will they repeat the 2023 scenario where none was willing to step down?? he asked.

The APC?s likely countermeasures

Both Fage and Hayatu believe the ruling APC will intensify efforts to undermine the opposition including further penetration of the opposition parties.

?The party in power has historically used government resources to maintain electoral dominance. We are already seeing this with strategic political appointments. Kano, for example, has seen a wave of federal appointments aimed at strengthening the APC?s grip on the state,? Hayatu noted.

The analysts concluded that with the 2027 elections still years away, the success of the Atiku-led coalition will depend on whether opposition leaders can overcome their internal differences and present a united front. Otherwise, history may repeat itself, with the ruling party capitalising on their divisions. (Daily Trust)

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