President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, yesterday, intervened in the political logjam in Rivers State to avert threats to the nation?s economic assets, particularly as the country faces a $35.3m daily loss through pipeline explosion that could keep oil yields low and worsen revenue earnings.

The major protagonists in the crisis, namely, Governor Siminalayi Fubara and the entire membership of the state Legislature, were suspended for six months in the first instance.

?The latest security reports made available to me show that between yesterday and today there have been disturbing incidents of vandalization of pipelines by some militant without the governor taking any action to curtail them. I have, of course, given stern order to the security agencies to ensure the safety of lives of the good people of Rivers State and the oil pipelines.

?No good and responsible President will standby and allow the grave situation to continue without taking remedial steps prescribed by the Constitution to address the situation in the state, which no doubt requires extraordinary measures to restore good governance, peace, order and security,? the President stated.

The declaration of State of Emergency in the oil-rich Niger Delta came as the culmination of a series of unsavoury events that continued to threaten, not only governance but also the country?s socio-economic activities and democracy in the state.

In a swift response to executing the order, truckloads of military personnel have been mobilised to corners of the state. By the latest action, President Tinubu joins the rank of Nigerian Presidents that uprooted democratic structures, including Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, (Plateau, 2004, Ekiti, 2006) and Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, (Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, respectively in 2013).

In the place of the suspended governor and his deputy, the president nominated Vice Admiral Ibok Ette Ibas (Rtd) as Administrator to take charge of the affairs of the state, saying that the Administrator would not make new rules.

Announcing the proclamation of State of Emergency in the state during a nationwide broadcast aired by the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), the President explained that he acted in line with the stipulations of section 305(5) of the 1999 Constitution, as amended. He disclosed that a copy of the declaration, which has been published in the Federal Gazette, has been forwarded to the National Assembly in accordance with the Constitution.

While noting his concerns and those of other well-meaning Nigerians over the political impasse in Rivers State, the President declared: ?In the circumstance, having soberly reflected on and evaluated the political situation in Rivers State and the Governor and Deputy Governor of Rivers State having failed to make a request to me as President to issue this proclamation as required by section 305(5) of the 1999 Constitution as amended, it has become inevitably compelling for me to invoke the provision of section 305 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 as amended, to declare a state of emergency in Rivers State with effect from today, 18th March, 2025 and I so do.

?By this declaration, the Governor of Rivers State, Mr Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, Mrs Ngozi Odu and all elected members of the House of Assembly of Rivers State are hereby suspended for an initial period of six months.

?In the meantime, I hereby nominate Vice Admiral Ibokette Ibas (Rtd) as Administrator to take charge of the affairs of the state in the interest of the good people of Rivers State. For the avoidance of doubt, this declaration does not affect the judicial arm of Rivers State, which shall continue to function in accordance with their constitutional mandate.

?The Administrator will not make any new laws. He will, however, be free to formulate regulations as may be found necessary to do his job, but such regulations will need to be considered and approved by the Federal Executive Council and promulgated by the President for the state.?

President Tinubu expressed the ?hope that this inevitable intervention will help to restore peace and order in Rivers State by awakening all the contenders to the constitutional imperatives binding on all political players in Rivers State in particular and Nigeria as a whole.?

However, no sooner had the President rounded off his broadcast than Nigerians began to interrogate the propriety of dismissing elected representatives as well as the constitutional implications for Nigeria?s democracy.

President Tinubu?s action became inevitable when militants started blowing up pipelines, more so as the attacks were likely to cut crude oil production by 450,000 barrels per day (bpd), worsening Nigeria?s struggle to meet its budgetary oil production targets.

Recall that Nigeria had set a production benchmark of 2.06 million bpd to finance its N54.99 trillion 2025 budget, with a projected oil price of $75 per barrel.

However, with production already declining to 1.4 million bpd in February, the latest disruption could reduce output to nearly 1 million bpd. This shortfall may worsen Nigeria?s foreign exchange crisis, as oil exports remain the primary source of foreign revenue.

In a statement captioned ?Political Manipulation, Disgraceful,? former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, noted that President Tinubu has been playing the role of a partial arbiter.

Reacting in a statement, Tuesday night, Atiku described Tinubu?s declaration as disgraceful, stressing that the President ?cannot evade responsibility for the chaos his administration has either enabled or failed to prevent in Rivers State.?

While contending that the declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State reeks of political manipulation and outright bad faith, Atiku stated: ?It is an unforgivable failure that under Tinubu?s watch, the Niger Delta has been thrown back into an era of violent unrest and instability ? undoing the hard-won peace secured by the late President Umaru Yar?Adua. Years of progress have been recklessly erased in pursuit of selfish political calculations.

?If federal infrastructure in Rivers has been compromised, the President bears full responsibility. Punishing the people of Rivers State just to serve the political gamesmanship between the governor and Tinubu enablers in the federal government is nothing less than an assault on democracy and must be condemned in the strongest terms.?

The frontline opposition leader maintained that ?anyone paying attention to the unfolding crisis knows that Bola Tinubu has been a vested partisan actor in the political turmoil engulfing Rivers. His blatant refusal or calculated negligence in preventing this escalation is nothing short of disgraceful.

?Beyond the political scheming in Rivers, the brazen security breaches that led to the condemnable destruction of national infrastructure in the state land squarely on the President?s desk.?

But, outlining the basis and process of declaration of a state of emergency, Dr. Charles Omole, explained that such measures are predicated by threats to public safety or order, natural disasters, a breakdown of law and order, and endangering lives and property.

In a post in his X handle @DrCOmole, the lawyer stated that section 305(5) empowers the President to declare a state of emergency when there is ?any other public danger that justifies emergency measures,? stressing that the President must first issue an official proclamation, to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the National Assembly (Senate and House of Representatives) within two days (if in session) or 10 days (if not in session).

?Once approved, the emergency rule remains in force for six months but can be extended by the National Assembly. Some fundamental rights under Chapter IV of the Constitution, such as freedom of movement and assembly, may be restricted if necessary for public safety.

?State governors and legislatures may be suspended, particularly if the crisis is due to governance failure,? he added.

Omole affirmed that while the emergency rule is meant to restore order, it has sometimes elicited controversies, particularly bordering on concerns about abuse of power and political motivations.

As reactions continue to trail the declaration of a State of Emergency in Rivers, the Yoruba Socio-political group, Afenifere, said the Federal Government was left with no option but to take action when some group of people resolved to bomb the nation?s pipeline and also blocked highways preventing easy movement.

Afenifere blamed the development on the reactions of the militants who resolved to bomb pipelines and block highways as a means of showing solidarity with Governor Fubara.

In a telephone interaction with The Guardian, National Publicity Secretary of Afenifere, Jare Ajayi, said, ?We saw this coming, and it was very unfortunate that it ended up in what we saw, a state of emergency. It is absolutely unbefitting of our democracy but then no government will fold its arms and allow its means of resources to be destroyed.?

While the group appealed for further dialogue and with deep consideration that Governor Fubara should be allowed to continue with his job based on the mandate given to him to govern the state, Ajayi appealed to activists to beware of how they intervene in issues like this. He said, ?The state of emergency wouldn?t have been necessary if the militants did not bump pipelines or block highways for travellers.?

Also, a former Deputy National Chairman of PDP, Olabode George said Mr. President was pushing Nigeria into a state of anarchy. He called for immediate reversal of the state of emergency.

George described the state of emergency as anarchy, absolute desecration and an anti-constitution, ?President Tinubu should reverse the state of emergency and suspension of Fubara with immediate effect, otherwise he should as well declare a state of emergency in Lagos where his ?boy? Mudashiru Obasa, who was legally removed by his colleagues, brought armed police officers to take over the Assembly complex.?

George warned that this was how the problem of the Western Region started, and President Tinubu is toeing similar lines of trying to push Nigeria into crisis.

The Ijaw National Congress, INC described the declaration of a State of Emergency in Rivers State as quite shocking, saying the body language of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, indicates that he is backing the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in the crisis-rocking the State.

Spokesman of INC, Ezonebi Oyakemeagbegha, said, it is very sad that the President will choose an individual over the entire State. He said, a similar thing has been done to an Ijaw President where he was sacked from his position, but he stated that this time, it will not end well with everybody.

?We are watching the scripts, it is not a threat, but it will not go well with everybody.? When contacted, the State Commissioner for Information and Communications, Joseph Johnson, said he heard the news through the media just like other people heard it.

But, a political and policy analyst in the State, Ignatius Chukwu, said the political fight was between Governor Fubara and the Minister of FCT, and queried why it was only the governor suspended.

Also, the Pan Niger Delta Forum, PANDEF, has decried the State of Emergency declared in Rivers State by President Bola Tinubu following the lingering political crisis in the State.

A statement by the National spokesman of PANDEF, Dr. Obiuwevbi Christopher Ominimini, said, ?PANDEF is seriously alarmed by the state of emergency declared in Rivers State due to a crisis that is ordinarily avoidable?.

In a chat with The Guardian in Ibadan, a former Chief of Staff to the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State, Professor Gbade Ojo; a former Deputy Speaker of the Oyo State House of Assembly, Chief Niyi Akintola (SAN) and the immediate past Secretary-General of the Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE), Dr. Kunle Olajide, all lauded President Tinubu for preventing the breakdown of law and order in the oil-rich state.

Akintola (SAN) said: ?The President has access to security information. The state of emergency is far better than anarchy. There was apprehension in the state. The president should be commended for thinking ahead to prevent anarchy. The stakeholders in the state have not helped the matter.??

For Olajide, ?The President has all the facts and security reports. If he had tried other means to solve the crisis without getting a solution, the decision would be the best to maintain peace.?

Similarly, Professor Ojo, who teaches Comparative Politics at the University of Ilorin, described the step taken by the President as the best option for the Federal Government,? noting that there was apparent breakdown of law and order in the state.

Threat to the nation?s economy

Yesterday, although Nigerian Bonny Light crude was trading above $78 per barrel Brent dropped to $70.59 amidst geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine on one hand and Isreal and Hamas on the other.

Besides the economic strain, oil market forecasts suggest a downward revision in crude prices as Wood Mackenzie?s latest monthly oil market outlook, said Brent crude is expected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, a decline of $7 per barrel from 2024 projections.

The forecast is shaped by OPEC+ production strategies and evolving US tariff policies.

Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie, Ann-Louise Hittle noted that while global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.1 million bpd in 2025, non-OPEC supply is projected to increase by 1.4 million bpd, potentially outpacing demand growth.

OPEC+ plans to increase production in small increments from April 2025 through September 2026 but postponing this strategy could help stabilise prices.

Meanwhile, global economic growth is projected at 2.8 per cent for 2025, though this could decline by around 0.5 percentage points if trade tensions escalate.

A slowdown in GDP growth could reduce oil demand growth by 0.4 million bpd, further weakening prices. Brent crude prices could fall by an additional $3 to $5 per barrel if demand slows more than anticipated.

Hittle cautioned that weaker-than-expected economic growth would leave little room for OPEC+ to reintroduce supply into the market. She explained that a lower-than-projected increase in oil demand next year could be outpaced by non-OPEC production growth, making it more difficult for OPEC+ to move forward with its planned output increases.

Although the state of emergency was anticipated, there is no doubt that a mixture of political rivalry and schemes for the electoral resources of the oil-rich and strategic state conspired to throw out the democratic structures (Guardian)

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