Ahead of 2027 general election, politicians are neck-deep in various permutations, proposing alliance talks and mobilising voters. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the calculations towards realignments, mergers and coalition-building.

Politics is in the air, although the next general election is still two years away. The almost two year-old administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu is consolidating. But, internal opposition elements within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and contending leaders of the core rival parties ? Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and Social Democratic Party (SDP) ? are returning to the drawing board ? seperately ? to strategise.

As from June, attention may shift to the 2027 calculations by political actors in a country that, traditionally, cannot set a line of demarcation or boundary, no matter how thin, between politics and governance.

The ruling party Is not sleeping on guard. Its leaders are working assiduously to enlarge its coast by wooing opposition figures, particularly in the state and national parliament where some PDP and LP lawmakers have defected, citing the multiple crises in the opposition camps as justification.

There is a sort of miniature threat posed by some aggrieved and grumbling APC chieftains, who have tentatively lost out in the distribution of largesse by the Tinubu government, to the platform. The plot to decimate the ruling party has manifested in the defection of a foundation stalwart, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna State, to the SDP.

El-Rufai has ambition, like all politicians. Ahead of 2023 polls, he had his eyes on the Vice Presidency. Smart, clever, confident and fork-tongued, he started shifting loyalty. As a Muslim, he positioned himself as likely running mate to Christian presidential aspirants -Rotimi Amaechi, former governor of Rivers State, and his Ekiti State counterpart, Dr. Kayode Fayemi. He had fired salvos at Tinubu, describing him as a godfather who should be retired. He only shifted allegiance to the leading APC presidential candidate when he knew that he had overcome the odds.

But, El-Rufai?s bid for the number two position collapsed. While avoiding a Muslim/Muslim ticket, President Tinubu settled for the hard, but objective option and survived the hues and cries. The former Kaduna State governor lost out when Senator Kashim Shetimma was picked as running mate.

Since his name was also dropped from the ministerial list after attending screening at the Senate, El-Rufai has been predictably bitter. He said the distance between him and APC was widening.

At the recent national conference on strengthening democracy, he attacked the Tinubu administration, describing the current state of governance and opposition in the country as a ?national emergency.?

He alleged lack of internal democracy within the APC, declaring that ?mo party organ has met in two years?no caucus, no NEC, nothing. You don?t even know if it is a one-man show; it?s a zero-man show.? El-Rufai added: ?You cannot afford to have illiterates, semi-illiterates, and cunning people as your leaders. This is why we end up with the poor leadership we have today. The problems that led to the formation of the APC remained unresolved, but I no longer believe the APC is interested in addressing them.?

Setting a stage for jumping ship, he alleged personal and regional exclusion, threatening that the North, which, in his view, retains the numerical voting strength, would not endorse President Tinubu and APC at the poll.

Prominent northerners, both in the APC and outside the party, disagreed with his assertion, saying that he merely expressed a personal opinion.

The APC National Chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, former governor of Kano State, said his personal portrayal of collective northern perception and permutations paled into a figment of hyperactive imagination. ?The North will not abandon President Tinubu and APC,? he added.

El-Rufai is the first prominent defector from the party. While announcing his departure, he unfolded plans to rally the opposition to hijack power from the APC during the 2027 elections. The former Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT) whipped up sentiments, posing as a rallying point and champion of public interest.

?I have now decided to join the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and adopt it as the platform for our future political engagements and activities.

?Without prejudice to this decision, as a member of the SDP, I will focus on engaging with and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us and congregate under a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in all elections and by-elections between now and 2027 by the grace of God,? he said.

But, the National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, ruled out an imminent implosion in the ruling party, saying that APC will continue to wax stronger, in Kaduna and other states.

Also, the Presidency dismissed the defection as a reaction to defeat. Spokesman David Bwala ponted out that it has no ideological underpinning, stressing that it is in exercise of constitutional right for the defense of self-interest.

But, he predicted failure for the defector, saying: ?We would intellectually remind you that associating with sore losers to unseat the incumbent is not an ideology. Neither is it progressivism. It is simply an inordinate ambition that is destined to fail.?

According to observers, El-Rufai may be deficient in accurate self-assessment. His structure, which has been shrinking after leaving power, has further been decimated by his decision to quit APC. Many of his followers who have stakes in the party are not likely to follow him.

Besides, he is labelled as a serial defector, who has crisis-crossed four parties ? PDP, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), APC and SDP ? in his bid for power and relevance.

Apart from his loss of relevance in national politics, Kaduna, his base, is also hot for El-Rufai. A predecessor-successor crisis broke out, shortly after he handed over to Governor Uba Sani, who is popular because of his inclusive style of administration.

Also, those he fought and chased out of the party in Kaduna State, including Senator Suleiman Hukunyi whose house he demolished, Senator Shehu Sani whose renomination he blocked, and Danjuma La?ah, have all returned to the APC to team up with the governor against him. Also, his rival, former PDP Governor Ramalan Yero is now in APC.

Currently, officials who served under El-Rufai as governor are facing allegation of embezzling N423 billion, which the House of Assembly is investigating. Others are being grilled by the Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Matters Commission (ICPC).

Kaduna APC Secretary, Yahaya Baba-Pate, said the chapter is unperturbed by El-Rufai?s defection.

He said the former governor bade farewell to APC at a time high-profile politicians in the state are leaving their parties for the ruling party.

Pate stressed: ?We are unperturbed by former Governor Nasir El-Rufai?s defection to another party.

Our main focus in Kaduna is on how to deliver the state to both President Bola Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani in 2027. The APC in Kaduna State is growing day by day, judging from the calibre of politicians streaming into the party on a daily basis.

?So, we are not disturbed by anybody defecting to another party based on our governor?s inclusive governance in the state. We are not disturbed, and we are not going to lose our sleep over El-rufai?s moves. The party in the state is growing more than before.?

Echoing the party secretary, another party chieftain, Mohammed Aliyu, said: ?El-Rufai has no support base in Kaduna. The few people that are supporting him, are either his appointees when he was governor or those who benefit from contracts by his government. So, his defection to the SDP, as far as I am concerned, is of no effect to the APC.?

Some of El-Rufai?s potential collaborators have also faulted the timing of the defection. It underscored the lack of adequate consultation, proper brainstorming, synergy and agreement. For example, Salihu Lukman, former Northwest APC Vice Chairman, said although he anticipated the move, El-Rufai should have exercised more patience to allow coalition talks to be finalised.

He added: ?My expectation was that he should have been a bit patient for us to work as a group based on the current negotiation that is ongoing.?

Sources said some former ministers, who served in the Buhari administration, are likely to follow suit, due to the ?force of companionship.? El-Rufai has disclosed that their former leader, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, is aware of his defection. But a source said that the former leader, now in blissful retirement from politics, is not in a partisan position to frontally encourage former followers to stay on in the party or defect.

Those being rummoured as potential defectors are Amaechi, former Governor Rauf Aregbesola of Osun State, Kayode Fayemi, and former Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Malami (SAN).

However, although Fayemi has reiterated his opposition to certain issues in the party, he said he would not abandon the party.

?As I have had cause to state in the past, I am a card-carrying foundation member of the APC, and this position has not changed.?

The former Ekiti governor, however, alluded to what he desctibed as the growing dissatisfaction within the party, warning that the APC still had time to ?change course? and embrace internal democracy and inclusivity before it was too late.

?While I have been at the vanguard of the demand for greater internal democracy and inclusion in the ruling party, I believe it is still not late for our party to change course and move towards greater inclusion and internal democracy,? Fayemi added.

Alliance dilemma:

The history of Nigeria is replete with the activities of the opposition targetted at alliances, fusion, accord, mergers, and coalition, right from independence. Those moves affirmed the country as a potentially two-party state, despite its practice of multi-party presidential democracy.

Of about seven concrete moves towards collaboration, only two ? that of the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC)/ National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) alliance of the First Republic and the fussion of the Action Congress of Nigeria (APC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), CPC, a section of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and n-PDP ? were successfully. Despite that, there were deserters who retraced their steps to their former parties.

The prolonged alliance talks that gave birth to APC followed a tedious process. It involved a lot of negotiations, concessions and consensus building. Tinubu, who spearheaded it, offered a great leadership, which was rare and unprecedented.

In any coalition talk, the so-called like-minded parties are not of equal strength, giving rise to the dichotomy of senior and junior partners, or party founders, long standing members and joiners.

A major strain or setback, usually, is mutual suspicion; mistrust and lack of confidence. Those factors thwarted the 1959 Action Group (AG)/NCNC alliance talk. As AG, led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo, sent a delegation to Dr. Nnamidi Azikiwe, leader of NCNC, Zik opened another another talk with NPC, which led to the formation of Balewa Government.

By 1964, when a section of NCNC consummated another alliance with AG, it was weak. Despite the dissolution of NPC/NCNC alliance, NCNC federal ministers, including Chief Festus Okotie- Eboh (Finance) did not quit the government.

In the Second Republic, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN)/Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) accord broke down, two years after. Not all the NPP ministers resigned from the Shagari administration.

In 1982, the proposed Progressives Parties Alliance ,(PPA) of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), NPP, Great Nigerian Peoples Party (GNPP) and the Imoudu faction of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) collapsed over the choice of presidential candidate between Awo and Zik.

In 1999, the emergency understanding between the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and APP, which made the two parties to project Olu Falae as presidential candidate on the platform of the APP did not achieve the desired results. The two parties went their separate ways after the election.

Als, the quest for a formidable third force was stalled. At a time, it was mooted by prominent rights activists, who later withdrew to their sheds.

The Mega Social Democratic Party (MSDP) of mushroom parties that came together around 2006 was hugely unpopular. It collapsed.

Also, the talks between LP and PDP ahead of 2023 presidential poll did not see the light of the day.

Last year, a group, the League of Northern Democrats, floated by Senator Ibrahim Shekarau, former governor of Kano State, was going round the country. But its defect is the name. It lacks a national outlook. After some weeks of noise making, the group appears to have fizzled out.

Friction among PDP, NNPP, LP

Recently, alliance or coalition became a bone of contention among leaders of PDP, LP and NNPP. While former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the PDP in the last election, was said to have made overtures to Peter Obi of LP and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP, they dissociated themselves from the move.

Emphasising the significance of coalition building, Atiku said: ?Opposition parties must realise that it is extremely difficult to dislodge a governing party, however unpopular it may be and however fed up the people may be with it.

?Coalition-building and outright mergers are critical for building the capacity of the opposition to achieve that goal. Our own history and examples from other countries prove that.?

The trio of Atiku, Kwankwaso and Obi were in PDP before. At various times, they defected, which means that they have grievances against the party. Only Atiku has been staying on in the party after retracing his steps.

There are puzzles: What new thing can suddenly bring them together? Is merely fighting the APC led-Federal Government enough criterion?

Kwankwaso, who ruled out the prospect of collaboration and power sharing deal with Atiku and Obi cited lack of trust as his reason. He dismissed it as a speculation; a ruse.

Kwankwaso also said that he was not ready to fall for the unpardonable deception and antics of the PDP, which led to the defection of many big wigs from the platform. Without mentioning names, he alleged that some politicians, who never did anything tangible for the North, are working hard to manipulate sentiments across the northern states in a desperate bid for power in 2027.

Kwankwaso even said any discussion on 2027 politics could distract the federal and state governments.

He recalled that the desperate and selfish agenda of certain PDP leaders forced him and Obi to leave the party. He pointed out that a similar scenario is being re-enacted in a bid to manipulate sentiments and corner the support of the North.

Kwankwaso said: ?I got information from sources purporting that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and I have met, but what I know is that nobody contacted me, and I have not spoken with Atiku.

Speaking to a BBC Hausa language programme, the NNPP leader added: ?I got information from sources purporting that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and I have met, but what I know is that nobody contacted me, and I have not spoken with Atiku.

?Also, I have not spoken with Peter Obi because I have decided that until the end of this year (2024), it is better to allow state governments and the federal government to work for the people and apply their wisdom in governance.

?The most annoying thing is that I heard from a source the latest I have heard that some people in the PDP told a group of about 45 (Islamic) scholars that there is a consensus that Atiku will rule for four years, Kwankwaso will subsequently rule for four years and Peter Obi, eight years; this is totally untrue; it is not true.

?This has infuriated me: why is it that elder statesmen in their 70s and 80s will be spreading such lies to these scholars about something that has never existed?

?Such statements and deceits were part of the things that made me and some other people leave the PDP, and now they have destabilised the party,? the former governor stated.?

Kwankwaso, who recalled that the desperate and selfish agenda of certain PDP leaders forced him and people like Peter Obi, FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike and many others to leave the PDP, lamented that a similar scenario is now being re-enacted to manipulate sentiments and garner Arewa support.

He stressed: ?For me to accept any alliance arrangements, we have to go back to history; I understand the PDP in totality, I know that their plan is to procure a party or be beating about the bush in other parties, bringing us together to make northerners vote for them.

?But what we are asking them is: ?what have they done for the North before?? These are the kind of things that will come into play.

?To my mind, we have witnessed the worst humiliation from these people; we love the party, we wanted to rejig it so that we could all prosper, but they made us leave by force.

?Kwankwaso left, Peter Obi left, Wike left and others left too, and there is no estimate of the number of those who left; yet they are the same people now coming to the fore, expressing interest in being made President (in 2027).

?Even if all such persons can do now is express remorse or seek forgiveness, it won?t change the fact that people like him had been deceived and humiliated in the past.?

Obi distanced himself from any proposed coalition with the PDP, saying: ?I?m not interested in coalition for the purpose of power grabbing.?

The former Anambra governor noted that past moves to evolve a coalition have been reduced to an exercise for power grabbing. He wondered why political leaders would allow the country to collapse in their desperation for political power.

Obi said: ?I am not interested in any coalition for the purpose of taking power. It is about discussing Nigeria, how we care about securing Nigeria, about the common people and their education. That is the most important thing in Nigeria for now.?

More than Kwankwaso, Obi appears to be in a precarious situation. He is leaning on LP, a borrowed platform. The party is not in a position to respond to an offer of alliance. It is divided and weakened by leadership tussle between the national chairman. Julius Abure, and the National Caretaker Committee chairman, Senator Esther Nenadi Usman.

The Obidient Movement, which is the main pillar and strength of Obi, has no footing in the party. Its members are scattered and not coordinated. There is nothing that can actually attract them to PDP.

Besides, there is a clash of ambitions and egos. As an observer queried: ?Can Atiku, who will be 81 years old in 2027, step down for Obi? Can he make the sacrifice? What would be the reaction of his followers?

?Can Obi accept to be Atiku?s running mate again? Would that not be infuriating to the obedients who would demand nothing less than a presidential ticket? In the power sharing deal, what would be the place of the Kano power broker, Kwankwaso?

SDP as merger springboard

The current SDP contrasts sharply with the defunct Third Republic formidable SDP, which served as platform for the 1993 presidential ambition of the late Chief Moshood Abiola. Thus, according to analysts, the handlers of the SDP only indulge in name dropping by conveying the impression that it is an incarnate of the banned party.

Since its birth under this dispensation, SDP has not been able to spring any surprise. Like the LP, it has largely been a borrowed platform, often hired by aggrieved politicians from the two leading parties ? APC and PDP.

In Yobe, protesting APC members have taken refuge in the party. In Ondo State, former Minister Dr. Olu Agunloye has been holding fort in the party. In Kogi State, it was adopted by an APC defector, Muritala Ajaka, for the last governorship election. In Osun State, it was the party that once accomodated PDP followers of Senator Iyiola Omisore. In Ekiti State, it was used as goverorship platform by Segun Oni, an engineer and former PDP governor. Before that election, a PDP elder and former Education Minister, Prof. Tunde Adeniran, sought refuge in the party.

However, the temporary chieftains of SDP returned to their former parties.

The most prominent SDP chieftain in the country today is Adebayo Adewole, a lawyer and businessman, who was its presidential candidate in 2023.

He received the news of El-Rufai?s defection with a mixture of excitement and reservations. The Ondo-born politician described the former Kaduna State governor as a man of strength and weaknesses. He said the defector has to work on his weaknesses.

Part of the weaknesses has led to the perception of El-Rufai?s as a symbol of ethnic and religious bigotry in a plural country, whose previous remarks have sparked tension.

In fact, Senator Shehu Sani, warned that El-Rufai may even create problems in SDP because of his domineering nature. He described the defector as a civilian dictator, who is guilty of his allegations against the APC.

Sani said El-Rufai has no respect for internal democracy, recalling that when he was governor, the party chairman, secretary, elected local government chairmen and most of the elected public officials were handpicked by him. ?I left APC because of him. If he returns to the APC, I will leave again,? he said.

El-Rufai?s defection to the SDP means that the party has to immediately grapple with the challenge of harmonisation. A leadership tussle may ensure as the defection cannot play the second fiddle.

Also, plans to invoke the spirit of Abiola for partisan gains by the latter-day politicians hibernating in the SDP may not fly. President Tinubu is more associated with the struggles of Abiola and the travails of democracy after the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election more than today?s self-acclaimed defenders of popular rule.

Buhari factor:

El-Rufai?s projection, according to sources, is that the CPC segment of the APC, which is boasting that it still has in its pocket the ?Buhari?s 12 million votes,? may dump APC. The ?cabal? include core loyalists of the former president, who are outside government.

The calculation Is that as the toast of the North during his presidential pursuits, El-Rufai and others can hide under Buhari?s name to run a campaign against President

But, on Thursday, Buhari reiterated his loyalty to the APC, on which platform he was elected president twice, saying that he has no plan to dump the party. This may be a big blow to the permutation.

While a faction of the PDP segment in APC, led by Amaechi, may make an adventorous journey to SDP, malcontent chieftains of the CAN segment of APC, including Ibikunle Amosun, former governor of Ogun State, and Aregbesola, may offer SDP lobbyists a listening ear.

Already, former Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa State is in contact with Aregbesola over collaboration talks. In Lagos, unconfirmed sources said former PDP governorship candidate Jide Adediran was being wooed by SDP. But another source said he has been taken to the APC National Leader in Abuja. During the 2023 poll, Adediran, fondly called Jandor by supporters, came third, trailing Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of APC and Chinedu Gbadebo Viviour of LP.

In Ekiti, wooing Fayemi for SDP would be difficult. A source said:?Fayemi enjoys popularity as one of the pillars of APC in this state, and the home situation does not favour the defection of our leader. Our leader may be complaining about exclusion in Abuja. But here in Ekiti, there is inclusion under the leadership of Governor Biodun Oyebanji, who is a loyalist of our respected leader, Dr. JKF.?

The most laughable step taken by El-Rufai in the Southwest is his consultation with the vocal APC chieftain, lawyer and popular cleric, Pastor Tunde Bakare. In 2011, when he paired with Buhari as running mate, the outing was not impressive. Two years ago, he boasted that he would succeed Buhari as the 16th president. But during the APC presidential primary, Bakare did not score a single vote. He presides over a big church, no doubt. But he lacks a formidable political structure.

NNDP?s search for allies:

NNPP lays claim to Kano State and nothing more. In other states, it only maintains skeletal presence. But the attribute of Kano is that its votes can dwarf the votes of three smaller states in the South.

The Implication is that Kwankwaso has a bargaining power. However, the constraint is that he may not be disposed to any association or collaboration that may rob him of a presidential ticket in 2027.

Kwankwaso?s best bet, in the final analysis, is the APC, where he can team up with his erstwhile political compatriots to deliver a second term to Tinubu, with the hope of an opportunity to thrown his hat in the presidential ring in the future.

It Is noteworthy that despite attacking APC as a party, Kwankwaso has not personally attacked Tinubu, who was senator when he was deputy speaker of House of Representatives in the Third Republic. Until after 2015, Kwankwaso was a respected chieftain of APC.

SDP/Southeast collaboration?

Can SDP make an in-road into the Southeast? Despite the region?s bloc votes for Obi in 2023, it is evident that he needs help beyond his LP. If LP survives its leadership crisis, it is possible that the party would be open for alliance talks.

Without aligning with other formidable parties, LP may not be a viable platform in 2027. It may regress to what it was prior to 2023; a borrowed platform, ?a use and dump,? a special purpose vehicle for rentage by interested politicians.

LP faces two internal challenges that constitute distractions. Its founder, the Political Council of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), is at loggerheads with its leadership. Also, the party is factionalised. Although the Abure leadership is strengthened by the court pronouncement, the verdict has not restored unity and cohesion. The NWC and the lone LP governor, Alex Otti of Abia State, who is the backbone of the caretaker committee, are working at cross purpose.

PDP and merger, coalition challenge

Atiku desperately needs alliance, as he warms up for the presidential race, perhaps, for the last time. But, his party is currently in disarray, torn apart by protracted leadership squabbles.

If the FCT Minister, Chief Nyesom Wike, continues to have his hold on the main opposition party, Atiku may consider leaving the fold. Since pro-Wike forces in the ?G5? succeeded in shoving the former national chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, aside, the control of the party had slipped from the hands of Atiku, who is one of the oldest and active foundation chieftains. The influence of Wike on the key party officers is to the discomfort of the former vice president.

Instructively, in the last two years,no notable politician has defected to the PDP. Analysts contend that it may be due to its lack of politics of accommodation.

However, if Atiku gets hold of the PDP National Working Committee (NWC), as he is working hard to achieve, the game will change. One of the scenarios being built by observers is that Wike may become a casualty of intra-party power shift. He may be expelled from the PDP. The stage is being set for that. On Thursday the PDP Disciplinary Committee, lef by former Senate President Adolphus Wabara,recommended the expulsion of Wike?s crony, Senator Samuel Anyanwu, who is battling in court to keep his position as the National Secretary.

Also, on Thursday, Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed, who is believed to be nursing a presidential ambition, contacted Obi for an alliance.

APC and realignment

The ruling party is waxing stronger. It is receiving defectors from the opposition parties, extending tentacles and building on the incumbency factor.

A master strategist, with long years of experience, President Tinubu, as the National Leader, has been able weave the ruling party together. He has repositioned the platform in a way that can make it to weather the storm and withstand the anticipatory stress of electioneering.

To the opposition, the President, a source said, is also accessible. A democrat, he has not ruled with an iron hand. His government is on course, living to expectation and fulfilling its campaign promises across the sectors, despite the challenges. Thus, the administration retains credibility and legitimacy.

A party source said: ?It is not the opposition alone that is interested in alliance. Our leaders have also embarked on aggressive membership drive, talking to politicians who have clout. We are committed to the second term project, based on zoning to the South and micro-zoning to the Southwest, after which power will automatically return to the North.? (The Nation)

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