Mallam Nasir El-Rufai may have emerged as the Disrupter-in-Chief in the plot to stop a second term for President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Just two days after defecting from the All Progressives Congress, APC, to the Social Democratic Party, SDP, the former Kaduna S?ate governor was already, according to analysts, fully acting his new role.

Last Wednesday, supporters of El-Rufai stormed the Abuja National Headquarters of the SDP with placards, calling for the exit of Dr Olu Agunloye as National Secretary.

The protesters, who carried placards, accused Agunloye of fraud. Agunloye is being tried in court over an alleged $6b fraud relating to the Mambilla power project.

The shocking sight of the new party members turned protesters forced Agunloye to petition the Inspector General of Police for police protection.

However, Sunday Vanguard reports that the demand for Agunloye?s exit appears to be mainly championed by some allies of El-Rufai who fear that the SDP?s National Secretary?s past links to Tinubu and, if not, ethnic identity would hinder the political goal of stopping the president from a second term.

?The El-Rufai people feel that it would be illogical to have somebody from the South-West hold that critical position of National Secretary when you are fighting against the second term quest of somebody from the South-West,? a source privy to the development said.

Plan B

The fight within the SDP following the entry of El-Rufai only reflects the fears of many over the prospects of the opposition against Tinubu who mounted the presidency in 2023 despite the challenges he got from within the Muhammadu Buhari presidency and the majority of the party?s governors.

Besides the suspicions around Agunloye, political actors are also raising suspicions that Tinubu may have gone ahead of El-Rufai into the SDP.

That claim, according to some political watchers in Abuja, flows from the fact that the SDP has been mentioned as the famous Plan B that Tinubu hoped to fall back to had he not won the APC presidential ticket in 2022.

Sunday Vanguard reports that in the approach to the APC presidential convention in 2022 that there were unverified reports that Tinubu was considering using the SDP platform to actualise his ambition following the perceived threats he was getting at that time from agents of the Buhari regime.

However, whatever his actions in the SDP, stakeholders believe that the party may not be the last bus-stop for El-Rufai and his collaborators in the plot to stop Tinubu?s second term.

2022 incitement

The falling out with Tinubu despite his yeo-man role in rallying northern governors to back Tinubu at the last minute is generally perceived as a payback by Tinubu?s associates following his previous engagements incitements prior to 2022.

The former governor had, in 2019, boasted of how he defeated godfathers in Kaduna and urged Tinubu?s foes in Lagos to do the same.

Turning point

However, the turning point in their relationship was just before the 2022 presidential primary when El-Rufai pulled away from the plots against Tinubu to back the former Lagos State governor as the APC candidate.

That decision, according to many, was based on real politics.

He knew that Tinubu was about the only one with the financial muscle in the South to wrest the presidency and he quickly jumped on board.

Tinubu appreciated El-Rufai?s gesture and publicly begged him to play a role in his government.

The former governor was said to have jettisoned his plans to proceed abroad for further studies to head the new government?s energy team.

However, the plan unfolded when the Senate refused to clear him based on a ?security issue?.

A Senate source told Sunday Vanguard that contrary to claims that there was a security report against El-Rufai, nothing of such was produced.

A senator, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Sunday Vanguard: ?What we were told by Senate President Akpabio was that there was a security issue with El-Rufai from the Department of State Service, DSS, but he did not circulate the report?.

That was, however, an unconventional route as many recall that in the past that DSS reports on nominees were circulated among senators. The case of Mr Ibrahim Magu, a nominee for the office of the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, who was repeatedly refused clearance by the Senate in part based on contradictory security reports from the DSS, was cited.

The allegation that Tinubu didn?t want El-Rufai in his government, despite the nomination, is something that has rubbed off negatively on the former governor.

He is also concerned by the insinuation of a security question around him and it was gathered that El-Rufai may go to court to force Akpabio to produce the security report.

A source in the opposition privy to the ongoing developments confirmed that El-Rufai is not contesting any elective position in 2027, but is focused on mobilising against the Tinubu second term agenda.

?What he is interested in is sending Tinubu and his people back to Lagos,? one prominent associate of former VP Atiku Abubakar who contested the 2023 presidential election but lost to Tinubu, and now relating with El-Rufai told Sunday Vanguard.

Advantage

While the former governor is not very popular with the grassroots, his capacity for organisation is one that gives him advantage in the camp of the opposition.

Besides, El-Rufai, who played a key role in persuading northern governors to support Tinubu during the 2022 presidential primary of the APC, is said to be in regular touch with some of the northern governors.

Remarkably, El-Rufai, who helped to damage Mr Peter Obi in 2022/3 in realisation that the leader of the Obedient Family and the candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 election would be on the 2027 ticket one way or the other, has already started inclining towards him.

In the clearest indication to that, his son, Bashir, issued a tweet on Monday on how his former party, APC, deceived him about the good qualities of Peter Obi.

Whatever, suggestion that the SDP would be the final bus-stop for the opposition coalition appears unlikely.

The 2023 presidential candidate of the party, Adewole Adebayo, in an interview on a television station on Friday, reiterated his intention to again contest, indicative of a split among the opposition coalition.

While emphasizing his determination to contest the 2027 presidential election irrespective of those joining the party, he said: ?Let us understand something. I don?t worry about that; everybody who is coming in knows I will run in 2027.?

A source In the opposition camp was, however, dismissive of the suggestion of the SDP being the vehicle to be used against Tinubu?s second term in 2027.

?It is neither here nor there. We are not pushing the narrative of persons or parties, but rather a bonding to produce victory,? the source revealed. (Sunday Vanguard: Text, Excluding Headline)

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