In contrast to the forced political marriage that birthed the ?Otoge? (Enough is enough) tsunami that swept away the hitherto formidable political fortress of the Saraki dynasty, there are concerns over whether the mantra will not be repeated on the ruling party come 2027.

The polarisation and disagreement within the party following its famous and historic victory five years ago has given credence to those with the view that history is about to repeat itself..

Shortly after the election of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq in 2019, signs of cracks within the party did not take long to manifest. The crisis which festered for years, peaked during the governor?s reelection bid in 2023.

The period was characterised by the revolt of some prominent aggrieved party leaders who begrudged the governor, the beneficiary of the 2019 revolutionary political paradigm shift, for allegedly not carrying them along.

The aggrieved faction complained about his style of governance and alleged lack of political patronage despite their collective contributions to his electoral victory.

Populated by arrowheads of the Otoge struggle led by the former Minister of Information, Alhaji Lai Mohammed and other prominent figures like Iyiola Oyedepo (Akogun), Senator Ibrahim Yahaya Oloriegbe and Saheed Popoola, among others, the group went to the arena with all the arsenals at their disposal to oppose the governor.

However, that political misadventure, including mass defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) by many of them, turned out to be a fatal miscalculation. It not only failed to gather the momentum required to stop the governor?s re-election, the latter went ahead to superintend over a clean sweep of all the elective offices for the APC.

Following the governor?s reelection, attempts to get the party members on the same page appeared to have met a brick wall. This is despite some ?reconciliation? trips to the Government House and ?cosmetic? display of support and camaraderie by some leaders of the aggrieved group at public fora.

As the 2027 electioneering gradually unfolds, analysts are of the view that the same scenario is already playing out.

Many are of the opinion that the fact that the governor will not be directly on the ballot is expected to increase the stakes and intensity among the contending forces within the ruling party, unlike in 2023.

Already, the aggrieved leaders and former Otoge-proponents-turned-opponents, including their lieutenants, have returned to the trenches to square up against the governor and his supporters.

Lately, the contending parties took their dirty linen out of the closet to wash in the public glare with verbal diatribes that unsettled the political atmosphere in the state and at the national level.

The issue, however, took a new dimension when Iyiola Oyedepo led other disgruntled party chieftains to float the Kwara Redemption Movement (KRM).

While speaking at the launch in Il?rin, Oyedepo, who maintained their APC membership, informed that the move was necessitated by the alleged derailment of the Otoge mantra under the governor.

According to him, the ?Otoge? movement did not produce the envisaged results and the beneficiaries led by Governor AbdulRazaq had bastardised the vision of the revolution.

Oyedepo would later attack the governor, his policies and achievements while featuring on Channels TV, calling on the national hierarchy of the party to intervene before the situation deteriorates to haunt the party in 2027.

?The governor is embarking on anti-people policies by fencing traders away from the public glare, all in the name of urban renewal. There has been lack of equity, justice and fairness in governance and distribution of amenities across the state,? he stated.

However, the Special Adviser on Political Matters to the Governor, Alhaji Bashir Adigun, described Akogun and his group as failed politicians without electoral value engaging in pull-him-down syndrome because of their frustration.

?Otoge is a revolution by the people and not any individual or group. Oyedepo and his ilk have travelled this path before and the outcome of their Gulliver politics is well known. Their gang up is driven by their failure and frustration to pocket Governor AbdulRazaq and prevent him from delivering the dividends of democracy to the people in all sectors,? Adigun said.

A kinsman of Oyedepo and former commissioner for information, who is a staunch ally of the governor, Alhaji Raheem Adedoyin, said, ?Oyedepo and his group are actually the ones in need of redemption,? adding that they want to destroy and build the party simultaneously.

He said the ?governor?s decision to prioritise development and welfare of the people with A-list infrastructure across all sectors has not gone down well with the aggrieved leaders against their expectations of political patronage for their individual benefits.?

He further expressed worry about opposition within, adding, ?Some of the problems are from people who are not happy with the governor?s simple style. They are the ones pushing the narrative that he is not performing, even when their people are directly benefitting from the governor?s projects.?

The Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Rafiu Ajakaye described Oyedepo as a ?firebrand politician whose credibility is best defined by the roles he played in the last hours of the 2023 election when he abandoned his SDP compatriots mid sea.

?Before the election, he spared no pejorative to describe the governor and the government, but would later eat his words when he returned to praise him for being such a large-hearted statesman who earned his second term on the back of excellent performance and the temperament to manage the tantrums of his ilk.

?He (Oyedepo) likes to be called the irrepressible five-star General of the Otoge struggle, bitter for not getting enough patronage. He represents a band of traditional politicians whose understanding of public good and development is what they get as personal gains to appeal to their individual egos,? he added.

For analysts, the latest political drama in the Kwara State chapter of the APC is a fight for the control and soul of the party as the next election approaches.

While some accused the governor of playing the godfatherism card, which he was supported to topple, his supporters argue that he was only being vilified for demystifying governance against expectation by some of the ?disappointed? leaders of the party, who were expecting him to continue the status quo of ?political slavery.?

Observers also believe it is too early to conclude anything; and the capacity for politicians to come together and bury their differences should not be underestimated, especially with about two years to the election.

Weighing in on the issue, the national president of the Nigeria Political Science Association (NPSA), Professor Hassan Saliu, said the APC in the state was transmitting a picture of disunity.

He said what favoured the APC in 2023 had gone forever and ?the politics of 2027 might be slightly different.?

The political scientist noted that some people who had not spoken were more bitter than those speaking, while some inside the government may also have their own grievances in the APC.

?The APC and its members have not been able to be together. Whether it is a minor disagreement, conflict or crises, I am not here to say who is right or wrong.

?But that is not an automatic assumption that the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will profit as many of them are thinking. The fact is that the APC has to work hard to win the election; and PDP has to work even harder to do so in 2027. This kind of situation is a plus for a third force, if anything,? he added.

He, however, said that while nothing is conclusive for now, the incumbency factor at the state and national levels favours the APC.

?But whether they will be able to capitalise on that is up to them and whether the PDP will leave the entitlement mentality and work to face the wall in front of it is another thing entirely.

?Senator Oloriegbe was embittered in 2023 but appointed by the governor in 2024 to serve as the Amirul Hajj for Kwara State; that is very instructive,? he submitted.

As the countdown to the 2027 general elections slowly begins in Kwara State, observers insist that another Otoge revolution may be looming. But whether it will further solidify the governor and his supporters or ?redeem? his opponents in the fight for the control of the party will be clearer in the days ahead. (Weekend Trust)

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