It is roughly about 25 months to the conduct of another presidential election. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has so far kept mum on whether he would seek a second term. However, the plot to dislodge him is gaining momentum by the day.

Last year, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume, who is next to Vice President Kashim Shettima in terms of hierarchy, with regards to political office holders of northern extraction in this current administration, had asked the north to wait till 2031 before contemplating vying for the presidency.

He had said: ?President Tinubu, as a southerner, should be allowed to have a second term, meaning that those eyeing the Presidency from the North in 2027 should look beyond that year by waiting till 2031.

?If it is the will of God for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar to be President of Nigeria, even at the age of 90 years, he can get it. But he and other northerners eyeing the office now should look beyond 2027.?

But reacting almost immediately, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), through its Publicity Secretary, Professor Tukur Muhammad-Baba, said: ?Our position is that it?s too early to debate the 2027 Presidency. We think the focus should be on good governance and the delivery of good dividends of democracy to the people.

?This talk of 2027 is too early, and it?s a distraction to the dialogue that should be taking place. Is democracy paying off for the people? Should the government do something for the people? This is what should preoccupy the minds of Nigerians, not the 2027 Presidency.?

Although the ACF Publicity Secretary believed that it was too early to discuss 2027 presidential contest, Daily Sun investigations reveal that discussions are already ongoing on how to dislodge President Tinubu, ahead of 2027. The plot, which is being spearheaded by northerners, bore similar characteristics with that against former President Goodluck Jonathan, in the build up to 2015.

Daily Sun recalls that the plot to dislodge Jonathan in 2015 was first hatched in January 2012, details of which were exclusively published in Saturday Sun the same month, with little or no efforts from Jonathan?s handlers to address some of the contentious issues raised in the said publication.

Like they did to Jonathan, where the support and buy-in of former President Olusegun Obasanjo was sought and granted, the plot to dislodge Tinubu too, appears to have gotten to the table of Obasanjo.

Only on Monday, February 10, 2025, key opposition figures intensified moves to consolidate their plot, with former Vice President and 2023 Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, leading a delegation to Obasanjo?s residence in Ogun State. He was accompanied on the visit by former Cross River State Governor, Liyel Imoke, immediate past Sokoto State Governor, Senator Aminu Tambuwal, Senator Abdul Ningi, and other associates.

Although Atiku described the visit as non-political, political pundits see it as part of a larger strategy to strengthen the opposition and build a formidable coalition capable of dislodging the APC in 2027.

Interestingly, the Monday visit is coming amidst a series of strategic meetings and behind-the-scenes negotiations, which Daily Sun learnt, involved key opposition figures like Peter Obi, the Labour Party?s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, who recently met with former Head of State, Ibrahim Babangida, at his Minna residence. Obi?s involvement, no doubt, suggests a strategic attempt to bring together various political actors across party lines to build a strong and formidable front against the ruling party.

Besides, the push for a coalition already has prominent figures involved in it, including high-ranking members of the ruling APC. The list includes but limited to former Minister of Solid Minerals and immediate past Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi, former Minister of Transport, Chibuike Amaechi, and immediate past Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai. Specifically, Mallam El-Rufai, has been very vocal in his criticism of the ruling APC, accusing it of abandoning its founding principles and failing to provide effective leadership.

At a recent national conference in Abuja, focused on strengthening democracy in Nigeria, Mallam El-Rufai openly chastised his party, and even highlighted the internal divisions and a lack of internal democracy in the APC.

In the build up to the 2015 presidential election, Obasanjo wrote to Jonathan, warning him not to contemplate a second term. Jonathan ignored him. In the end, Jonathan lost the battle. Similarly, in the build up to the 2019 presidential election, Obasanjo again wrote to the then President Muhammadu Buhari, warning him not to contemplate seeking a re-election. Buhari ignored him and he won the election.

It was not the first time Obasanjo would write or criticise sitting Nigeria?s leaders, since he left office first as military Head of State in 1979 and later as a civilian president in 2007. He criticised Alhaji Shehu Shagari, who took over from him. He also criticised Buhari as military Head of State.

Again, when the military president, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (retd), unleashed his Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) on Nigerians, Obasanjo was up in arms against him and his policies, urging IBB to give SAP a ?human face.? When the late General Sani Abacha came on stage and was almost running Nigeria aground, Obasanjo was all out firing from all cylinders.

Unlike IBB however, Abacha could not tolerate Obasanjo?s criticisms and it did not take long before he was sent to the gulag on the allegations that he was plotting to overthrow the Abacha government. Abacha?s death changed the whole story and Obasanjo regained his freedom and went ahead to win election in 1999 as a democratically elected president.

After leaving office in 2007, he facilitated the election of late Umaru Yar?Adua. But midway into the administration, Yar?Adua took ill and a cabal led by his wife took over the affairs of governance. Obasanjo personally undertook a trip to see Yar?Adua on his sick bed in Germany, to ascertain his mental and physical capacity to continue in office.

Convinced his case was beyond redemption, Obasanjo chose the annual Daily Trust Dialogue of January 2010, to advise Yar?Adua to resign. He went further to declare that ?if you take up an appointment, a job, elected or appointed whatever and then your health starts failing and you will not be able to deliver and satisfy yourself and satisfy the people you are supposed to serve. Then, there is a path of honour and a path of morality and if you don?t know that, then it means you don?t know anything. I will stop at that.?

Eventually Yar?Adua died later that year, and his second in command, Goodluck Jonathan stepped in. But in the run up to the 2011 election, there was groundswell of opposition against Jonathan, especially from the north, as the region insisted that it should be allowed to have a go at the presidency again.

Obasanjo again stepped in and resolve the issue in favour of Jonathan. He rallied support for Jonathan, same way he did for Yar?Adua. In the end, despite the religious and ethnic sentiments played up against Jonathan in the north, Obasanjo assembled his army of supporters in the north, led by Alhaji Sule Lamido (Jigawa), with support from Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto) and Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), all of whom were serving governors at the time, to lead Jonathan to victory against Buhari, with a wide margin of over ten thousand votes.

Before the election, Obasanjo had on the day Jonathan emerged as PDP?s candidate at the Eagle Square in Abuja, announced that Jonathan would be doing just a term. Meaning, he won?t be seeking a re-election.

But by 2012, Jonathan left no one in doubt that he was going to seek a re-election. By December 2013, Obasanjo took his pen and paper and wrote a 18-page letter to Jonathan, accusing him of decimating the PDP through his determination for a second term against earlier promise of serving one term. He wrote to Jonathan 14 months to the presidential contest, which was later shifted by six weeks.

Although Jonathan dared him, today Jonathan knows better. Obasanjo after defeating Buhari in 2003 and assisting two other candidates to defeat him in 2007 and 2011, he shifted support for Buhari in the run up to the 2015 contest, where Buhari after three previous failed attempts, emerged victorious.

But like he did to Jonathan, he wrote to Buhari too, warning him not to contemplate seeking a second term? Like he did to Jonathan, Obasanjo?s letter to Buhari also catalogued his misgivings of the Buhari?s government, accusing Buhari of nepotism, buck-passing and lacking knowledge of internal politics. His letter to Jonathan was 18 pages. The one to Buhari was also 18 pages.

According to Obasanjo in that letter, ?the situation that made Nigerians to vote massively to get my brother Jonathan off the horse is playing itself out again. First, I thought I knew the point where President Buhari is weak and I spoke and wrote about it even before Nigerians voted for him and I also did vote for him because at that time it was a matter of ?any option but Jonathan?. But my letter to President Jonathan titled: ?Before It Is Too Late? was meant for him to act before it was too late.?

Obasanjo however noted that Jonathan ignored his advice. He went further to say that ?President Buhari needs a dignified and honourable dismount from the horse. He needs to have time to reflect, refurbish physically and recoup and after appropriate rest, once again, join the stock of Nigerian leaders whose experience, influence, wisdom and outreach can be deployed on the side line for the good of the country. His place in history is already assured. Without impaired health and strain of age, running the affairs of Nigeria is a 25/7 affair, not 24/7.?

Although, Obasanjo had criticised the Tinubu?s government in the past, he is yet to write a formal letter to President Tinubu. Will he write one as the country approaches the mid-term of the current administration? Only time will tell. What is however certain is that so far, since 1999 to date, apart from losing the political battle to seek a third term, losing the battle to stop Buhari?s second term bid in 2019, and failing to stop President Tinubu?s ambition in 2023, he has successfully prosecuted and won convincingly all political battles, especially presidential contest since 2007 after leaving office. Will 2023 be different? It seems only time will tell.

For now, however, President Tinubu and his team would have to return to the political chess board. And the team?s handling of the mounting pressure from the opposition from within and outside of the APC, would go a long way to make or break the president?s chances in 2027 presidential contest. (Daily Sun)

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