The recent impeachment of the Lagos State House of Assembly Speaker, Rt. Hon. Mudashiru Ajayi Obasa, has set the political stage alight in Lagos State, Nigeria?s commercial hub.

This development comes as discussions about the 2027 governorship election are already in full swing, despite being two years away.

For political observers and stakeholders, Obasa?s removal is more than a legislative decision; insisting it could signal deeper political intrigues within Lagos? ruling political dynasty led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Lagos State, known for its dynamic political landscape, has been dominated by Tinubu?s political machine for over two decades. With Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu completing his constitutionally permitted two terms by 2027, intense speculation surrounds who will emerge as his successor.

Obasa and the road to impeachment

Obasa, a prominent figure in Lagos politics, has been a member of the Lagos State House of Assembly since 2007, representing Agege Constituency 1. He rose through the ranks to become Speaker in 2015. He succeeded Adeyemi Ikuforiji, who remains the longest-serving Speaker, having led the House for 10 years. Obasa could have surpassed this record had he completed his current tenure.

Under Obasa?s leadership, the House of Assembly became a crucial instrument in the state?s political machinery. Known for his loyalty to Tinubu, Obasa?s impeachment came as a shock to many, as he had long been considered untouchable.

However, his early aspirations for 2027 reportedly angered key figures in the political establishment, who perceived his ambitions as an affront to the system that elevated him.

During the 2025 budget presentation by Governor Sanwo-Olu in December last year, Obasa?s comments about his qualifications being at par with those of past leaders were seen by many APC members as a show of disrespect to constituted authority.

The Speaker?s impeachment while he was reportedly out of the country attending an event in Atlanta, United States, has raised questions about the timing and the motives behind the decision. Upon his return, Obasa will find himself relegated to the position of an ordinary floor member, a significant fall from grace for someone once regarded as a potential governorship aspirant.

Obasa?s removal has drawn varied reactions. While some describe it as a necessary step to maintain discipline within the party, others view it as a calculated move to eliminate a potential threat to other aspirants.

A member of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the highest decision-making body in Lagos APC, revealed that the Assembly members initiated the move to impeach Obasa.

?What I can tell you is that the members approached us with their decision to change the leadership, and we supported them. We were only upset that they didn?t inform us earlier, but they have since apologised. The new Speaker and other members came to explain the situation, and we are satisfied with their explanation,? the source, who asked not to be named, said.

Similarly, APC spokesperson, Seye Oladejo dismissed claims that Obasa?s removal was linked to the 2027 election.

?What happened shows that democracy is growing. It doesn?t signal any division in the party. The legislative process was seamless, with no violence, and the party respects the members? independence,? he told Weekend Trust.

Obasa?s predicament is reminiscent of former Governor Ambode?s experience. Despite his achievements as governor, Ambode?s falling out with the political establishment led to his exclusion from the race for a second term. However, Ambode has since mended fences with the party, earning speculation about a potential comeback.

Lagos 2027: The battle for succession

The race to succeed Governor Sanwo-Olu is expected to be fiercely contested. Over the years, Lagos has remained the crown jewel of the APC, with its immense economic and political influence making the governorship position highly coveted.

Several names have already emerged as potential contenders. Among them are Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, the current Deputy Governor; Hakeem Muri-Okunola, the Principal Secretary to President Tinubu; Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to the President and a former Speaker of the House of Representatives; and Tayo Ayinde, Chief of Staff to Governor Sanwo-Olu.

Other potential aspirants include former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, who was denied a second term in 2019 but has since reconciled with the party; Senator Tokunbo Abiru, representing Lagos East Senatorial District; and Hon. Abike Dabiri-Erewa, the Chairman of the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM).

Perhaps, the most talked-about name is Seyi Tinubu, the President?s son. Although he has not publicly declared his intention to run, campaigns advocating for his candidacy have gained momentum. Proponents argue that Seyi, a businessman and philanthropist, has the capacity to lead Lagos. Critics, however, see these campaigns as a strategic attempt to gauge public sentiment ahead of a potential declaration.

The Tinubu Factor

President Tinubu?s influence in Lagos politics cannot be overstated. Having served as governor from 1999 to 2007, he built a political structure that has remained formidable, controlling Lagos politics even after his tenure through the Governor?s Advisory Council (GAC), a body believed to be the highest decision-making body in the state?s ruling party. Tinubu?s endorsement is widely regarded as a prerequisite for any governorship aspirant within the APC.

However, the inclusion of Seyi Tinubu as a potential candidate raises questions about the direction of Lagos politics post-Sanwo-Olu. While some see his candidacy as a natural progression of the Tinubu political dynasty, others argue that it could alienate key stakeholders within the APC.

A political analyst noted, ?If Seyi decides to run, it will be a test of Tinubu?s ability to manage competing interests within the APC. It could also reshape the narrative around political succession in Lagos.?

But in Lagos politics, zoning plays a significant role in determining governorship candidates. Sanwo-Olu hails from Lagos Central Senatorial District, effectively excluding candidates from the same zone. This leaves Lagos East and Lagos West as the most likely regions to produce the next governor.

Senator Tokunbo Abiru, a former bank executive and a key figure from Lagos East, has garnered significant support. His candidacy is seen as a strong possibility, particularly with the backing of Ikorodu, a major APC stronghold. Former governor Ambode also hails from this zone and should it be agreed that the zone should produce the next governor, other factors like religion may come into play.

The Lagos West Senatorial District, where Obasa hails from, also has a legitimate claim to the governorship in the name of fairness and equity. However, Obasa?s impeachment and subsequent loss of influence may hinder his chances.

The Tinubu political dynasty has shown little tolerance for dissent. Analysts note that loyalty and adherence to established protocols are critical for political survival within the APC.

Dr. Kayode Esuola, a political scientist at the University of Lagos, observed that Obasa?s early declaration of interest for 2027 was ill-timed.

?Having political ambition without clearance from the head of the political hierarchy is a misstep. By publicly revealing his intentions too early, Obasa went against the rules of political engagement in such a structured system,? Esuola said. (Weekend Trust)

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