As Nigerians join the rest of the world to usher in a New Year, political pundits predict an upward swing in the tempo of political activities ahead of the 2027 general election.

Judging from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election which Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won, the performance of the three main opposition parties and their candidates stood out.

They are Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mr Peter Obi (Labour Party) and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

Perhaps having learnt lessons from their collective defeat, opposition leaders are said to have began consultations in a bid to upstage Tinubu in 2027.

This was confirmed by a former National Vice Chairman (North-West) of the APC, Salihu Lukman, an ally of former Kaduna State Governor, Ahmed El-Rufa?i.

Lukman spoke on the subject on New Year?s Day.

He said: ?While acknowledging that opposition political leaders, including alienated APC leaders, have commenced negotiations towards producing alternative political platform, it must be also recognised that most Nigerian politicians are not disposed to competitive political culture.

?Largely because most politicians are driven by personal ambitions to contest elections, the default mindset is about imposition and manipulating processes to achieve personal ambitions. This must stop.

?We must remind all our political leaders that if they want to prove their altruistic value and demonstrate strong disposition towards rescuing Nigeria, therefore beyond the pretentious claims of subordinating personal ambitions towards the emergence of the new platform, opposition political leaders should commit themselves to allowing political competition as basis for the emergence of political leaders at all levels?.

The question begging for answers remains, Can any of the leading opposition parties go it alone?

PDP and the trouble within

The chances of the PDP in the 2027 presidential election are uncertain, but its past performance and current challenges are worth considering.

Historically, the PDP has been a dominant political force in Nigeria.

It won every presidential election between 1999 and 2011 until it lost power to the APC in 2015 and have since struggled to bounce back.

Its presidential candidate in the 2023 poll, Atiku, lost to APC?s Bola Tinubu, receiving 29.1 percent of the vote compared to Tinubu?s 36.61 percent.

This, according to some analysts, suggests that the PDP still commands a significant following, but faces strong competition from the APC.

The party is currently struggling with internal conflict which, if left unresolved in 2025, two years ahead of the 2027 polls, could undermine its ability to present a united front at the elections.

Challenger

Atiku?s desire to be President hasn?t changed. He is expected to fight for the party ticket with Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, a potential challenger from the South.

The party also has to contend with the challenge posed by the larger than life influence of Chief Nyesom Wike.

Wike is one PDP leader who not only serves as Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), under an APC administration, but has vowed to work for Tinubu?s re-election.

A former National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Kola Ologbondiyan, is optimistic about the party?s chances.

Ologbondiyan said, ?Let?s consider facts. Which other party can genuinely boast of our kind of a well-established structure? Which other party enjoys our kind of grassroots organic support?

?It is only in the PDP that you can find a pool of experienced politicians, including former presidents and governors, who have the capacity to provide guidance and support. We have challenges no doubt, but we will overcome them.?

Overall, while the PDP has a chance of winning the 2027 presidential election, it will require careful planning, strategic campaigning, and a bit of luck.

Labour Party?s war of attrition

Just like the PDP, the LP is struggling to recover from leadership crisis.

Although the Julius Abure-led National Working Committee of the party enjoys the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)?s recognition, critical stakeholders like: the NLC, Peter Obi and the party?s only elected Governor, Alex Otti, reject his leadership.

There is even talk of Obi and co-seeking alternative platforms.

But the National Publicity Secretary of the LP, Obiora Ifoh, said, ?Despite the temporary setbacks, our party has suffered with the defection of some of our lawmakers, we have started the rebuilding process.

?Our party will not only recover, we will grow and surpass our 2023 achievements at the polls.?

Romance with APC

Kwankwaso, who is the party?s national leader of the NNPP, is facing an uphill task keeping the party together.

The party boasts of one governor, some senators and members of the Kano State Assembly and members of the House of Representatives, but there is no guarantee that Kwankwaso can prevent the looming defections from the party Into the ruling APC.

Whereas the 2027 presidential election in Nigeria is more than two years away, pundits agree that it?s safe to speculate about the chances of Kwankwaso and Peter Obi.

Amid the talks about a potential alliance between the two ahead of 2027, Kwankwaso expressed his willingness recently to serve as Peter Obi?s running mate under certain conditions.

This development is significant, considering their previous discussions about a merger ahead of the 2023 general election which did not materialize.

In the 2023 election, Peter Obi emerged third, securing approximately 6,101,533 votes, while Kwankwaso garnered 1,496,687 votes to emerge fourth.

While these numbers don?t necessarily predict the outcome of the 2027 election, they do indicate that both candidates have a significant following.

Dynamics

A Jos, Plateau State-based political scientist, Dr. Joseph Anuga, said, ?If Kwankwaso and Peter Obi were to form an alliance, it could potentially boost their chances. We must note that the dynamics of 2023 may not be the same in 2027.?

Anuga stressed that it was essential to note that Nigerian politics can be unpredictable as various factors, including party dynamics, regional considerations, and voter sentiment ultimately influences the outcome.

Reluctance

Obi, on his part, is trying hard not to be drawn into the 2027 debate and the possibility of a merger or the formation of a mega party.

Commenting on the subject at a media event in Abuja, he said, ?On the issue of merger, everybody who means well should come together to get the country to work.

?Let?s build this country. None of us is going to be here forever. For me, what is important today is Nigeria. We are so occupied about election, just as we are so occupied with power capture.?

Kwankwaso also denied the speculation that he and his two fellow opposition leaders had agreed on a formula to defeat Tinubu and share power.

He said, ?I heard from a source that PDP brought in scholars ? about 45 of them ? and claimed that there was a consensus that Atiku will rule for four years and Peter Obi will rule for eight years. This is a complete lie and has no basis in reality?.

Master of the game

With his mastery of the political game, Tinubu and the APC know how to cultivate loyalists.

Apart from the power of incumbency, the President has ensured that those who worked for his victory in 2023 were not only rewarded but kept close.

His loyalists currently control both chambers of the National Assembly as well as all levers of state institutions and instruments of coercion. Former Governors David Umahi (Ebonyi), Nyesom Wike (Rivers), Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano), Bello Mattawalle (Zamfara), Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi) and Mohammed Badaru (Jigawa) have all been rewarded with ministerial posts and are expected to repay this gesture with a repeat performance in 2027.

The President and his party have also been fingered as having more than a passing interest in the crisis in the three major opposition parties.

At this point, it?s difficult to accurately assess their chances, but the potential alliance between Kwankwaso and Peter Obi is certainly an interesting development to watch. (Sunday Vanguard)

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