Gambling with cards was an elite past time among some of the middle and upper middle class people of Lagos in the 70s and 80s. These were the ?Yuppies? ? and their elder brothers ?of the time. A lot of private parties in Surulere, Yaba and Ikeja ended up with cards being shuffled. Even some street parties were not excluded among core players who would bring out cards as the evenings wore on. There was a famous industrialist whose penthouse was a favourite haunt for the ?big boys? playing for high stakes at weekends. Nigeria was rich and its elite were affluent with large disposable funds. So, in the main, the stakes were affordable. But once in a while, we heard stories of a man driving a big car to a venue and going home in a taxi because he had gambled the car away. There were stories of people losing choice landed property because they stayed too long into the night hoping their luck would turn.

The game of cards has many varieties. It is a large family but with a common DNA which is that It is a game in which players bet on the strength of the cards in their hands against other players. It is largely a game of luck with certain skills honed in. Chief among the skills is the ability to hide the strength of the cards in your hand as well as the ability to read your opponents? mainly through their demeanor. Another skill is the ability to play your cards in a sequence that maximizes their effectiveness. Played without tension, it is an interesting game that teaches about life with its twists and turns and the ability to play the deck that fates hands you well. Competiveness comes with the introduction of stakes and the higher the stakes, the more the flow of adrenaline. This is when the traits and characters of your opponents come to the fore in sharp relief. This is where you?d see people cheat and lie. This is where you?d see big boys cry and gloat depending on the turn of fortunes.

If one saw Nigeria as a game of cards with high, almost existential stakes, then one could perhaps understand more clearly, the antics of its elite players. Is the Boko Haram phenomenon just another happenstance or a deliberate hand played by some elite players? After all, a contestant boasted at the time that baboons and monkeys would be soaked in blood if he didn?t win. Was the emergence of Fulani herders during the headship of a Fulani President a coincidence or a deliberate play of cards? What was responsible for their boldness in their quest for territorial conquests? Can the continued violence in the north be put down as the consequence of years of neglect by its leaders or is it something more sinister? Is there a deliberate ploy to use the violence to gain more attention and corner more resources? Did the introduction of Sharia fall into the same game plan or is there a grander scheme? Is there more to the sustained desire by some people to have the Sharia justice system have its pride of place in the constitution? And to whose advantage is the desire to vest all resources including water resources in the Federal Government? Is it the case of whoever owns the slave owns the loads on them? (Eniti o l?eru lo l?eru). Is that why some people are reluctant for some of the powers of the center to be divested to the States? And down south, is there more to the inability of government and its agents, to put an end to the sit at home situation? How deep is the complicity among the rulers and monarchs in these places? What are the cards being played and the ones being hidden? Are there hidden cards being played by Wike and Fubara in the country?s regional oil capital? Can it have consequences for 2027 or even beyond?

To form the union called Nigeria, our regional leaders laid their cards on the table. It was agreed among other things, that every region would develop according to its pace. Every region should own and develop its resources and send a percentage to the center. It was tacit therefore, that every region would live according to its means, just as Nigeria itself should live according to its means. The unity government that came into being during the war might be justified by some, but it was a breach of the agreement of our founding fathers. Therefore, the takeover of the oil resources of the Niger-Delta people was a breach of that agreement. The overarching power of the center was also a breach of that agreement. Unfortunately, every attempt to address that breach, even in form of tokenism is resisted by the northern elite. Every reform, no matter how little or inconsequential, is viewed with suspicion and resisted by the northern elite. I have as a layman, read the tax reform bill ? never mind that I live with a tax consultant ? and I cannot in honesty see what had made the Northern Governors and some northern elites to gang up against it in such a ferocious manner. But then, anything that upsets the status quo is instinctively resisted by these people. The usual refrain is to threaten to take power back to the north. A region, now a zone called the South-East, has not tasted Presidential power almost since this union called Nigeria was formed. Yet these northern elites see nothing wrong or unjust with that. I do not know what cards they have up their sleeves to make them think political power is theirs to hold or dispense at will. I do not know what makes the South to easily acquiesce or even cower when these threats are made instead of calling their bluff. Is it more than the cards we see on the table? Are there strategic assets beyond population? And a predominantly poor one at that?

If Nigeria was a game of cards, then the northern elites must be its most skillful players. They read and play the game so well. They exaggerate what they have and downplay what the opponents have. But then, that is how the game of poker is played. You have to look and act like a winner even when the cards are not stacked in your favour. At some point though, a new set of players would emerge who would call the bluff and insist on putting all cards on the table. The rules that guided the game our forefathers agreed to at independence would probably then be revisited. The country must be reformed before it can make progress. The tax reform bill is one.

? Muyiwa Adetiba is a veteran journalist and publisher. He can be reached via titbits2012@yahoo.com

Update news