IF present developments are any indication, Nigerians desirous of a reduced pump price of fuel and consequently a better quality of life may be in for a proverbial long night. There isn?t the slightest glimmer of hope on the horizon. For years, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has been feeding Nigerians with a salad of fake promises regarding the functionality of Nigeria?s refineries. Shortly after President Bola Tinubu assumed office, he told the organised Labour that the Port Harcourt refinery would commence operations in December 2023. The president hinged his declaration on the assurances given by the NNPCL and its Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari. In making that declaration, the president did not consider the corporation?s previous false assurances, particularly under the Muhammadu Buhari administration when, as usual, the corporation expended billions of dollars on the turnaround maintenance of the refineries in Port Harcourt, Kaduna and Warri.

Sensing that Nigerians had grave doubts about its promises, the NNPCL insisted on the deadline. During a meeting with the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas on November 23, 2023, the NNPCL boss doubled down on the December 2023 promise. His words: ?I can confirm to you that by the end of December this year, we will start the Port Harcourt refinery. Early in the first quarter of 2024, we will start the Warri refinery and by the end of 2024, the Kaduna refinery will come into operation. This is the commitment we are giving today, and you can hold us accountable for this. In 2024, many of the initiatives, including the rehabilitation of our refineries and also the efforts of small-scale refineries, and the upcoming Dangote refinery, will make Nigeria a net exporter of petroleum products in 2024. We will no longer be talking about fuel importation by the end of 2024. I am very optimistic that this will crystallize.?

As the 2023 Christmas celebrations approached, the government decided to titillate Nigerians with news of an oil production turnaround. On December 21, 2023, the Federal Government announced the mechanical completion of rehabilitation work on the Area-5 Plant of the Port Harcourt Refining Company, adding that the first phase of the plant had been completed and that the facility would start refining 60,000 barrels of crude oil daily after the Christmas break. This declaration was made by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri. Hear him: ?This is to announce to Nigerians that in fulfilment of our pledge to complete phase one of the Port Harcourt refinery by the end of 2023, and the subsequent streaming of phase two in 2024, we happily announce the mechanical completion of flare start-up on December 20, 2023. This heralds the commencement of the production of petroleum products after the Christmas break. We want to thank Nigerians for their patience and trust in the NNPC to deliver on our promise and mandate in the rehabilitation of our refineries.? When January 2024 came, the NNPCL indicated that the Port Harcourt refinery was being test run and that it would be ready by the end of that month. Oil marketers who could not hide their excitement joined in propagating the claim that the plant would commence the sale of petrol and diesel to 12 states, including Abia, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Delta.

Speaking on the floor of the Senate in July, the NNPCL boss told the chairman of the National Assembly?s Joint Committee on Finance, Sani Musa, during an emergency session on the state of the economy: ?I can confirm to you, Mr Chairman, that by the end of the year, this country will be a net exporter of petroleum products. Specific to NNPC refineries, we have spoken to a number of your committees, and it is impossible to have the Kaduna refinery come into operation before December ? both Warri and Kaduna ? but that of Port Harcourt will commence production early August this year.? The August deadline, which came after several failed pronouncements, was not met. Then, the Chief Financial Officer of the NNPC, Umar Ajiya, said the refinery would commence operations in September. On the sidelines, Maire Tecnimont SpA, the contractor overseeing the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt refinery, promised to provide details on the project?s completion latest by October 2.

Meanwhile, as the NNPCL continued toying with the emotions of Nigerians, the 2023 report by the global statistical agency, Energy Institute, unearthed a staggering decline of 92 percent in Nigeria?s crude oil refining output over the past ten years. Nigeria?s four refineries have a collective capacity to process approximately 4.45 million barrels of crude oil per day. However, from a robust production level of 92,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2012, the refining output plummeted drastically to a meagre 6,000 bpd in 2022, representing a significant drop in refining capacity. The findings cohere with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries? (OPEC) Annual Statistical Bulletin 2023. OPEC?s report also highlighted Nigeria?s sharp decline in crude oil refining capacity from 33,000 bpd in 2018 to 6,000 bpd in 2022, signifying an 81 percent decrease in production output. In this regard, the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery is supposed to be a game changer, but there is no assurance that it will get the quantity of crude oil it needs, as the supply of crude oil to the refinery is essentially tied to the 450,000 barrels statutorily earmarked for local refining on a daily basis.

Nigerians don?t know when the refineries will work, if work they ever will. And the country is supposed to be operating something called democracy, a form of government in which the people rule. The idea of Nigerians hoping that their country will stop fuel importation and witness a crash in the pump prices of petrol has become a pipe dream. Even with the humongous sums expensed on the so-called turnaround maintenance of the refineries, the NNPCL has been toying with the emotions of Nigerians. In May last year, the National Assembly launched an investigation into the N11.35 trillion expended on the rehabilitation of the refineries between 2010 and 2023. By October last year, there were reports suggesting that the corporation had expended approximately N17 trillion on the so-called maintenance works.

It Is distressing that the Tinubu government is not sufficiently outraged about such humongous, unprofitable expenditure to order a massive probe into the workings of the NNPCL. Nigerians are being treated to endless, provocative promises that tend to take them for fools. Are Nigerians permanently condemned to a dosage of endless promises? Christopher Okigbo, Nigeria?s most celebrated poet, asked this poignant question in his epochal poem, Hurray for Thunder: ?How many million promises can ever fill a basket?? That is a question Nigerians must direct at the Federal Government and the NNPCL.

(Nigerian Tribune Editorial)

Update news