?Lawyer Emmanuel Ogebe gives Independence Day advice to FGN on salvaging Nigeria

Media veteran Martins Oloja?s piece on Tinubu?s five tactical errors is scintillating as usual. I don?t know that any journalist in Nigeria has achieved the mastery and understanding of how government runs like him (unless of course Azikiwe but he was just a titular president.) He?s certainly a top governmental expert ironically from without.

I am highlighting a few more errors of my own in the spirit of helping a nation in doldrums especially as they were not addressed in the president?s broadcast.

1. THE DAM DAMAGE The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Alhaji Atiku Bagudu, says the Federal Government under Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund has approved over N350 billion to support dams and expansion of facilities across Nigeria.

However the government didn?t provide funding to build a dam in Nigeria to curtail perennial devastating flooding from Cameroun as agreed in the 1980s!

?The flooding is a dramatic change, it is a global challenge, and we saw what happened in Borno, among other states.

?If you watch footages coming from around the world, particularly in Europe, you will see a lot of flooding incidences.

?Climate change is real, lucky enough, President Ahmed Bola-Tinubu, recognised it, and took proactive steps where money was given to states.?

The minister lied about the floods claiming it was a global problem when it was actually government corruption, ineptitude and recklessness. The Borno flood was act of man/misgovt NOT act of God. The annual flooding of about 11 vulnerable states coming from Cameroun is Inaction of man/misgovt NOT act of God.

?The federal government allocated N3 billion to each state of the federation to mitigate the effects of flooding.

Bagudu also revealed that the council had approved N900 billion on the Kebbi component of the Sokoto- Badagry High Way, saying, ?It is the single biggest contract awarded under the current administration.?

According to him, there is another approval for construction of Zaria Kala-Kala road.

Why share 3B to each state (over N1Trillion) instead of build a preventative dam?

Why award N1Trillion on a road in Kebbi/Sokoto rather than build a dam?

Nigeria?s topmost infrastructure need is power not roads so why should the largest such contract be for yet another road like the dubious Lagos-Calabar white elephant highway?

In building a dam, Nigeria protects its citizens from avoidable flood deaths and destruction while harnessing power generation. It?s a win win!

The 900B road contract Is not the largest award by this govt. The minister is either lying, ignorant or incompetent. Lagos-Calabar coastal fraud way is over N1Trillion.

I guess this is why all the road contracts because the contractor friend of the president doesn?t know how to build power plants and dams. So we must eat roads through the nostril. They will soon award a contract to build a highway from Lagos to France!!!

RECOMMENDATIONS

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, most internal displacements in 2022 were associated with disasters, as the worst floods in a decade hit the country. The floods triggered over 2.4 million displacements, the highest disaster displacement figure in sub-Saharan Africa in 2022. Half of the displacements were reported in the southern state of Bayelsa in the Niger river delta, but the states of Anambra and Kogi were also heavily affected. Displacement camps in the north-eastern state of Borno were also flooded, forcing thousands of people already displaced by conflict and violence to flee again. The floods limited humanitarian access by damaging roads, bridges and infrastructure.

Only 148,000 internal displacements were from conflict and violence in 2022.

The figures are:

?2.4 million displacements

?3.6 million IDPs

.over 676,000 hectares of farmland were destroyed, worsening food insecurity.

, the total number of people internally displaced by conflict and violence as of end of 2022 was the highest since records began in 2013, pointing to a persistent lack of durable solutions.

Fixing the flooding has national security, food security, social security as well as infrastructure security in addition to hydro-electric economic transformation.

Nigeria?s Dasin Hausa Dam must be built to buffer the effects of the release of water from Cameroun?s Lagdo Dam!

2. JETTING WHILE MASSES ARE TREKKING.

Nigeria, formerly Africa?s Biggest economy is now 4th and 3rd biggest debtor to the World Bank. Eight of the world?s poorest nations are in West Africa and Nigeria is one.

Jeff Bezos the Richest man in the world bought a new plane for $80 million. President of Venezuela bought a presidential jet for $13 million. Nigeria poverty capital of the world bought a 14year old new plane for at least $150 million to replace a 19 year old presidential jet. Yet America?s Presidential jet is 34 years old!

Venezuela and Nigeria have the lowest oil output in OPEC but them because of sanctions and we because of sabotage but we?re living large buying big 300-seater passenger airplanes like USA the world?s top economy for the president.

Billionaire Bezos (who earns $1 million per hour) now has four aircraft while the Nigerian presidential fleet has about 20 aircraft at the president?s disposal (including helicopters.)

UAE donated food for Borno victims but the plane landed in Abuja and dropped it there and not In Maiduguri airport.

Then Tinubu took his new presidential jet from the same Abuja airport and flew to Maiduguri airport but he didn?t take the donated food aid there either.

Rather, he flew his presidential Limo to Borno to use there!

RECOMMENDATIONS

The fact is that Tinubu had multiple options that did not involve buying a new presidential jet:

A. Two jets were purchased by the Obasanjo regime ? one for the president and one for the VP. The VP?s plane is newer than the 19 year old plane that is being replaced and could have been reassigned to him. Generally VP?s don?t have their own planes. They use presidential planes when available but in Nigeria even senators and presidents? children use and abuse presidential jets.

B. Tinubu reportedly has two private jets of his own and on top of that borrows Gilbert Chagoury?s jet as well. In other words, he has no shortage of access to planes that justifies a huge chunk of scarce forex to buy one.

C. Similarly Nigeria has reclaimed a private jet purchased by a corrupt oil minister. That aircraft could have been repurposed as a presidential jet. Dan Etete, the former Nigerian Petroleum Minister, had his luxury private jet seized due to its connection to the infamous $1.3 billion OPL 245 oil block scandal. The jet, a Bombardier 6000 with tail number M-MYNA, was purchased for $57 million and was confiscated at Montr?al-Trudeau International Airport in Canada.

D. globe-trotting adventures. It?s ultimate in luxury, with features like: - *Master Suite*: complete with a fixed bed, private en-suite bathroom ? high-speed WiFi,- *Flexible Layout*: with up to five living areas, including a private stateroom, dining area, lounge, and crew rest area.

3. PRESIDENTIAL YACHT

One of the most bizarre purchases is a presidential yacht while there is no body of water in the nation?s capital for which the president will require sea transport. Is the president going to use it for relation in Lagos or inspection in the creeks? It is disheartening that the overstretched military who complain of inadequate equipment to fight terror and piracy would waste millions of dollars on a luxury boat that has no combat value.

Worse still, the US Justice Department?s kleptocracy team seized $145 million worth of assets purchased for a former oil Minister?s benefit, including a $50 million apartment in New York, properties in California, and an $80 million yacht. Again if a yacht truly was needed by Nigeria, it had one already it could?ve repurposed as a presidential yacht without buying another.

A visionary Tinubu in Lagos placed barges on the Lagoon to provide electricity to the state. This yacht falls flat in comparison.

4. ESTABLISHING RUGA ENCLAVES IN CONFLICT ZONES AND EXCLUSIVE LIVESTOCK MINISTRY

The Federal Government said it would commence the Pulaku Initiative, ?a large-scale resettlement programme to address the causes of clashes between farmers and herders in various flashpoints nationwide? in seven states. They are Sokoto, Kebbi, Benue, Katsina, Zamfara, Niger, and Kaduna states. According to the programme, Houses, Schools, Hospitals and other basic amenities will be provided for Fulani herdsmen.

Security and Food Security is more critical than housing estates. Rather than rehabilitate over 1,000,000 displaced farmers in Middle Belt so they can farm and crash food prices, Tinubu is taking their land to build estates for Fulanis who destroyed and displaced them. There are 160,000 rehabilitated terrorists but no single rehabilitated farmers.Why this logical incongruity?

Implanting vast Fulani enclaves distorts election maps in the states ? granting Tinubu sympathy and stronghold amongst the Fulani caliphate whom he successfully excluded from the presidency for the first time since the 1999 return to democracy. However it is a recipe for disaster as the creation of Jos north, an enclave for settlers, which bred perennial conflict in Plateau state shows us.

RECOMMENDATION

Until every Nigerian displaced by Fulani terrorists is rehabilitated, there should be no discussion of imposing RUGAs or any enclaves on anyone?s lands.

If they must, why isn?t the government building these infrastructure for the Fulanis in their own land? Well because these are foreigners who have no villages here.

They were invited here by Buhari and co to occupy Nigeria and have refused to withdraw with Buhari?s tenure over.

The government can negotiate with Fulanis to settle in Sambisa forest which was designated by the British colonial government as a game reserve (after all VP Shettima governed Sambisa) but it must not take the lands of any Nigerian.

When Jonathan used our collective wealth unconstitutionally to build hundreds of Almajiri schools in the north, he didn?t do it on lands of the Middle Belt. Why is it now that they want to take other people?s land for the Fulanis?

If RUGAs must be built for indigenous Fulani (not foreign fighters) FGN can utilize the existing and abandoned almajiri schools instead of exacerbating Nigeria?s humongous debt profile.

During his visit to Nigeria, the UN Secretary General thanked Nigeria for helping rebuild their bombed office; Nigeria begged UN to build facilities for ex-terrorists and UN begged Nigeria to help IDPs return to their homes safely. This is a no brainer.

5. FOREX FARCE

As highlighted in an Amicus brief in the Bagudu Abacha loot case in USA recently, Nigeria borrowed $10Billion using our future oil ($3B) and future gas ($7B) earnings. The loans were not tied to any project except shoring up the naira but the currency even reached over 60% devaluation. A banker friendly with Tinubu made $66million from the $3Billion loan transaction which will cost an estimated $12Billion to repay. The terms of the $7Billion can only be imagined.

Brazil?s Petrobras reported a net profit of $25 billion in 2023, Petronas in Malaysia reported $19 billion, Russia?s Gazprom reported $14 billion, while the NNPCL reported a paltry $2 billion at the current ?1,600/$ exchange rate used by the NNPCL in December 2023.? (Source: SBM Intelligence)

Yet NNPCL is acquiring more debt than its revenues and thus the world?s only national oil company that is operating at a loss.

RECOMMENDATION

Shockingly, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, has called for an urgent increase in oil production and a broader economic diversification strategy to stabilise the country?s volatile exchange rate while addressing journalists at the end of a two-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Abuja.

The bank chief emphasised that while efforts to boost foreign exchange inflows through various initiatives, including liberalising diaspora remittances, have shown promise, these measures cannot substitute for addressing the fundamental structural issues in the Nigerian economy.

?We must recognise that without resolving the underlying economic fundamentals, we will continue to sub-optimise.

?Oil production must be ramped up to levels that can support the economy, and we need to diversify beyond our current status as a monolithic economy reliant on oil. Until this happens, the strong exchange rate we all desire will remain out of reach,? he said.

The question now Is, if he was aware of this as the only solution to the naira being one of the worst performing currencies in the world, why did FGN borrow $10 Billion to ?defend the naira?? More importantly where is the $10 Billion now?

I advised on Diaspora Day 2023 thus, ?Disruption of Diaspora $22Billion Remittances

I am concerned at recent policy reversals that threaten to negatively impact Diaspora remittances which have become a staple stabilizer of the Naira value.

As stated in my prior letter to you, ?Nigerians in Diaspora have in recent times remitted more money to the national economy than Nigeria?s oil production.

Besides that, the Diaspora?s multi-billion dollar annual remittances have historically been a stabilizing factor that mitigate the capital flight induced by corruption over the years. In short, our forex remittances is the life blood transfusion that has stemmed the financial haemorhagging by lootocrats.

Similarly the (Buhari) regime in which you serve introduced a policy to incentivize more forex influx from Diaspora by CBN paying five naira for each dollar sent. This temporary policy was so lucrative that the Central Bank extended it indefinitely and remittances even exceeded oil export revenues. In February 2022, Central Bank of Nigeria claimed that diaspora remittances surged by 1,566.6%, accounting for a sizable portion of the CBN?s daily dollar receipts, from $6 million weekly to $100 million since the launch of the Naira-to-dollar promo.

Yet Tinubu administration CANCELLED the CBNs Naira-for-dollar incentivization policy effective July 1, 2023.

If Diaspora remitted $21.9 Billion in 2022, that means our recipients in Nigeria received roughly N100Billion ($65million) based on the 5Naira-for-1dollar incentive program.

If CBN spent less than N80Billlion on Diaspora incentive in 2021 to generate $20Billion but Nigerian National Petroleum Company spent N788.7bilion on administrative expenses in 2021 to remit less than $1.5B to CBN, then Diaspora is a better investment for Nigeria than investment in NNPC.

This is an increase from N648.6 billion reported in 2020, bringing NNPC?s total expenses to over N1.4 trillion in two years to produce about 15% of the forex that Diaspora generates while Nigeria only spent 15% of what NNPC consumes on Diaspora incentive.

This is exactly why CBN spending five Naira to attract $1 from Diaspora remittances is even a better investment than the $25 Billion purportedly spent on refineries producing nothing.

To simplify this, the FGN should:

A. Simply have paid N100B ($65 million) to attract $20 Billion from Diaspora remittance to stabilize the naira then to borrow $10 Billion (15 Trillion) which will be repaid back with over 100% interest (30 Trillion) without improving the exchange rate. In fact Zenith Bank alone made $66 million signature fee on a $3Billion foreign loan ? more than the $65 million the entire Diaspora would have made to bring in $20 Billion into the economy!

B. Invested the $10 Billion in acquiring profitable assets if taking the loan was a must. Mobil and others are selling oil assets. Why acquire liabilities instead of profitable assets?

(To be continued)

?Emmanuel Ogebe is a US-based lawyer and Nigeria international affairs expert with the U.S. Nigeria Law Group, Washington.

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