As all preparations are in top gear for the Edo State gubernatorial election on Saturday, September 21st, 2024, it also means the beginning of the end for Governor Godwin Obaseki?s second term in office, marking the conclusion of his eight years in office by November 11, 2024.

While the good people of Edo state will decide on ballots who will be Obaseki?s successor, many believe some factors and circumstances will influence the popular decision that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will announce.

The election, one of the off-cycle elections in 2024, will take place across all local governments in Edo State. Meanwhile, no fewer than 17 political parties are preparing to contest to replace Obaseki at the Dennis Osadebe House.

Recall that in the state?s last election, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and incumbent governor, Godwin Obaseki, secured victory with 307,955 votes, while his closest rival, Osagie Ize-Iyamu, garnered 223,619 votes. However, the upcoming election is set to feature fresh candidates, bringing a breath of new air into the state?s political landscape.

In anticipation of the election, the INEC, while disclosing its readiness for the election, confirmed that 2,249,780 registered voters, representing 85.57% of the 2,629,025 total registered voters, have collected their Permanent Voters? Cards (PVCs) across 4,519 polling units in the state?s 18 local government areas.

The impressive turnout for the collection of PVCs demonstrates a clear interest among Edo citizens in what is poised to be a historic election in the state?s history.

In this article, Tribune Online looks at eight key factors that could make or mar the election.

1. Phillip Shaibu?s Impeachment Saga

On Monday, 8th April 2024, the Edo State House of Assembly impeached Philip Shaibu from his position as deputy governor following a long-standing conflict between him and his principal, Governor Godwin Obaseki.

The Impeachment followed the adoption of a report by a seven-member committee established by the Edo State Chief Judge, Justice Daniel Okungbowa, to investigate allegations of misconduct against Shaibu.

However, on 17th July 2024, Shaibu was reinstated by Justice James Omotosho of the Federal High Court in Abuja, restoring him to his position as deputy governor.

Following his reinstatement, Shaibu, elected alongside Obaseki under the PDP, defected to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) alongside several key PDP legacy coalition members.

Shaibu?s defection and presence in Edo?s political landscape have been considered factors that may influence the poll.

2. Power of Incumbency

Out of the 31 gubernatorial elections held in Nigeria in 2023, non-incumbent parties won in only six states, while candidates from the ruling parties emerged winners in the remaining 25. As history often repeats itself, incumbency?s power may again play a crucial role in the Edo gubernatorial race. However, history is also non-linear.

With the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) being the party of the current governor, Godwin Obaseki, the party?s control of state structures and resources could give its candidate an advantage over his opponents.

3. Minimum Wage Implementation

Another significant factor that could shape the outcome of the upcoming election is the issue of minimum wage implementation. On Monday, 29th July 2024, President Bola Tinubu signed into law a new national minimum wage of N70,000.

Only 11 of the 36 states in the country have expressed willingness to implement the new minimum wage. However, in Edo State, under Governor Godwin Obaseki?s administration, the state commenced paying N70,000 to its workers as early as May 2024, two months before the national minimum wage law was passed.

The early adoption of the minimum wage payment in Edo State, in the build-up to the election, could significantly influence voter sentiment, particularly among the state?s civil servants and their families. Obaseki?s prompt approach may generate goodwill toward the PDP candidate in the election.

4. Rise in Inflation

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria?s inflation rate rose from 33.95% in May 2024 to 34.19% in June 2024, marking an increase of 0.24 percentage points.

Despite a slight decrease in inflation to 32.15% in August 2024, following a rate of 33.4% in July, Nigerians continue to express dissatisfaction with the country?s economic conditions. This frustration is further compounded by rising fuel prices despite the commencement of petrol production at the Dangote Refinery.

Although these economic challenges are at the national level, they are likely to influence the Edo gubernatorial election. With the APC in power at the center, the high inflation rate and fuel price increases may harm the party?s image and weaken its gubernatorial candidate?s chances at the poll.

5. Perceptions of Leading Candidates

Although 17 candidates are contesting the Edo gubernatorial election, the race is widely regarded as a three-horse contest, with attention focused primarily on the candidates of the PDP, APC, and Labour Party namely: Asuerinme Ighodalo, Monday Okpebholo, and Olumide Akpata, respectively.

Asuerinme Ighodalo of the PDP is a 64-year-old economist, lawyer, and politician from Okaigben, Ewohimi, in Esan South East local government. Ighodalo, a former chairman of Sterling Bank, has served on the economic teams of both Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and the outgoing governor, Godwin Obaseki. His experience and deep ties to the state?s governance may appeal to voters seeking continuity and stability.

On the other hand, Monday Okpebholo of the APC is a 54-year-old businessman and politician from the Udomi-Uwessan community in Irrua. With a background in Business Administration and a Master?s in Policy and Leadership Studies, Okpebholo?s candidacy could appeal to voters seeking economic reform and fresh air in the state?s leadership position.

Meanwhile, Olumide Akpata, the Labour Party candidate, is a 51-year-old lawyer from Edo South Senatorial District. As the first non-Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) in 28 years to be elected president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Akpata offers an alternative to the APC and PDP political dominance. His candidacy may resonate with younger voters looking for change and a break from traditional political structures. Remember, the Presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections, Peter Obi, put up a good fight against the ruling APC and major opposition, PDP, courtesy of his ?OBIdient? support base and the strong quest for an alternative party.

6. Oshiomhole?s ?Barren? Remarks on Obaseki?s Wife

APC stalwart and Edo North Senator, Adams Oshiomhole, recently came under fire for controversial remarks about Betsy Obaseki, the wife of Governor Godwin Obaseki, calling her barren.

Oshiomhole made these comments in response to Mrs Obaseki?s introduction of Ifeyinwa Ighodalo, wife of the PDP gubernatorial candidate, at a campaign event, where she referred to her as the only candidate?s spouse in the upcoming election.

Reacting to Betsy?s statement, Oshiomole said, ?I was shocked to hear Mrs. Obaseki say our candidate has no wife. Here is a woman who has no child. Between them, they are childless and have not adopted.?

The statement has sparked widespread condemnation, with many Nigerians criticising it as unnecessary and reflective of dirty, petty politics. This fallout could significantly impact the APC?s prospects in the Edo gubernatorial election.

7. Perceptions on Zoning

Although the Nigerian Constitution does not require that political offices, such as that of a governor, rotate or be zoned according to senatorial districts or local government areas, it is an undeniable fact that informal power-sharing agreements often exist in many political parties and states, including Edo. These agreements are primarily aimed at rotating key political offices across different parts of the state to promote fairness and balance.

Like other Nigerian states, Edo State is divided into three senatorial districts: Edo South, Edo North, and Edo Central. With the current governor, Godwin Obaseki, from Edo South, completing his eight-year term, and his predecessor, Adams Oshiomhole, from Edo North, having also served two terms, many voters may feel that it is time for the governorship to shift to Edo Central in the interest of equity.

Among the three leading candidates for the governorship, both Asue Ighodalo of the PDP and Monday Okpebholo of the APC are from Edo Central, while Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party hails from Edo South. This geographical alignment may influence voting patterns as candidates from Edo Central are likely to enjoy more robust support from voters.

8. Candidates? Strongholds

A candidate?s political stronghold can significantly influence the outcome of an election. Candidates from regions with historically high voter turnout often have a natural advantage.

In the last governorship election in Edo State, the local governments from which the current leading candidates hail had varied voter turnout, which may offer insights into what to expect in the forthcoming election.

According to a report from INEC, the PDP polled 19,896 votes from the Esan South East Local Government, where his current candidate, Asue Ighodalo is from. At the same time, Esan Central Local Government, where Monday Okpebholo is from, APC garnered 17,672 votes. On the other hand, Ovia South West Local Government, where Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party is from, recorded 23,741 votes. These three local government areas contributed 61,309 votes out of the 537,407 votes cast in the Edo 2020 governorship election.

However, it is worth noting that Oredo Local Government, within the Edo South Senatorial District, where Akpata is also from, had the highest voter turnout in the previous election, with 62,578 votes. This large voter base could give Akpata an edge, particularly in Edo South, where voters may be inclined to support a candidate from their own senatorial district. (Nigerian Tribune)

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