Ahead of next month’s off-cycle election in Edo State, the gladiators jostling to occupy the Osadebe Avenue, the state Government House, are intensifying and perfecting strategies to guarantee them an edge over their rivalries.

Among the major contenders in the September poll is obviously the All Progressives Congress (APC). Backed by what members and chieftains proudly bragged as federal might and powerful stakeholders like Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, returnees like the reinstated deputy governor, Philip Shaibu, the APC may not have asked for more, despite being an opposition political party.

In retrospect, APC’s journey to stake a claim of its readiness for the election faced an initial setback during the party’s primary election. It was a very turbulent one riddled with crises. Stakeholders sharply divided and waged relentless war against one another.

It even resulted in the obvious crack in the APC Progressive Governors Forum (PGF) due to the involvement of the forum’s chairman, Hope Uzodimma in the shoddy conduct of the primary. It was so bad that the party’s leadership found itself in a serious dilemma divided between presidency forces and major stakeholders led by Oshiomhole.

In fact, the party, both at state and national levels, actually found itself in a state of anomie, and for a few weeks, the crisis had defied diplomatic solution until a fresh primary election was conducted which resulted in the technical emergence of Senator Monday Okpebholo as the party’s candidate.

Despite his emergence, the party faced a tempestuous post-primary situation that forced aggrieved aspirants like Dennis Idahosa to opt for legal solutions in his desperate attempts to reclaim his mandate.

The manner the APC primary election was handled which created a crisis in the party, had allegedly angered and pitched President Bola Tinubu against the party’s national leadership led by the National Chairman, Abdulahi Ganduje.

At last, the long-delayed anxiety, succour, and relative peace finally came when President Tinubu allegedly weighed in and restored truce by pacifying party leaders in the state like Oshiomhole, to prevail on Idahosa, challenging the primaries in court, to discontinue his litigation and opt for a deputy governorship candidate.

However, in the consideration of many political watchers, despite the tumorous and tempestuous outcome of the primary election, APC seems to have less acrimonious circumstances in the build-up to this election compared with the previous ones in the recent past.

For example, apart from the 2016 election where the APC easily coasted to victory because Oshiomhole threw his incumbency weight to bulldoze the way for Godwin Obaseki to emerge victorious ahead of the candidate of the PDP, Ize Iyamu, the 2020 election was too rancorous for the APC.

In retrospect, it was Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, then-candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who received greater portions of the tantrums in the 2016 governorship election with all manner of dirt from Oshiomhole thrown at him to discredit him and give his opponent, Obaseki, the advantage.

The 2020 governorship poll in Edo was understandably more vindictive for the APC for the obvious reason of the gulf and brutal fight between the godfather, Oshiomhole, and the godson, Governor Obaseki.

Recall that Oshiomhole had done everything humanly possible to ensure that Obaseki, an incumbent governor, was not only disqualified by the APC but also accused of a certificate scandal, forcing him to dump the APC, seek shelter under the PDP umbrella to confront Oshiomhole’s anointed APC candidate, Ize-Iyamu.

The Edo electorate was not only apparently divided but the state governors, across party lines, disunited with some APC governors, angry with the ill-treatment Oshiomhole meted to one of their own, Obaseki, secretly supporting him.

Unfortunately for Ize -Iyamu, despite anointing him, Oshiomhole had made the PDP campaign against him ruthless and simple due to the campaign of calumny he carried against him when he contested on the platform of PDP against APC candidate, Obaseki in 2016.

The good news today is that the storm is practically over, and lines are gradually falling in pleasant places for the APC stakeholders ahead of next month’s poll. The party is now under a relatively united and peaceful family after overcoming the initial fury of the stakeholders angered by the conduct of the controversial party primary election and declaring war against another.

Unlike in the similar previous election held in the state in 2020, where the chieftains and leaders of the party participated in anger and as a divided family, many of the hitherto aggrieved party chieftains have all collapsed their political structure to ensure that they deliver the party’s candidate, Okpebholo.

The new returnee to the APC, Philip Shaibu, while underscoring the desperation of the party to win the state, argued that the total resolution of the stakeholders to back Okpebholo will be the party’s secret winning formula.

Speaking to newsmen when he visited the national headquarters of APC to formally authenticate his membership status, Shaibu confirmed to newsmen that there was a general resolve that Okpebholo is not contesting alone but a straight battle against all the party’s stakeholders.

On the chances of APC winning the poll, and what his return will bring to the party, Shaibu said that; “the chances of APC winning is getting brighter and better every day because we that left the APC to join the PDP and win in 2020 are returning to the APC.

“This time, we, the major factor that left APC, including the state and local government executives are back to the party. It is not just about Philip Shaibu. Anslem Ojezua, and Kenneth Asekhome among unhappy others are all back. Election is about numbers, and if the game is about numbers, APC’s numbers are increasing while PDP’s numbers are depreciating.

“So, obviously the party whose numbers have appreciated, not those theirs have declined will win the election. PDP is gone in Edo State. Even those that are still in PDP like Dan Orbih are not as far as this issue is concerned. They are already frustrated.

“I can bet that APC is in to win this election. There is camaraderie and a good sense of purpose. Everybody is taking it as a personal business to ensure that APC wins in Edo State. Nobody is looking at the candidate alone. All of us are contesting for the governorship. All of us, by the grace of God, will put in everything to ensure we defeat PDP. I can assure you of that.”

Perhaps, aware that such victory will not be a stroll into the park, Oshiomhole, reputed as the master of political mind game, recently stirred the hornet’s nest, describing the PDP governorship candidate, Asue Ighodalo, as unelectable.

In Oshiomhole’s reproachful attack, while appearing on a television political programme recently, he unscrupulously accused Ighodalo of manipulating the political process and failing to connect with the people of Edo State, with his inability to speak his native language and reliance on an interpreter during his campaign.

Hear him: “Asue Ighodalo is not electable. Right now, he fraudulently, according to the Federal High Court, manipulated and disobeyed the constitution. As we speak, he is not even a candidate. Nigerians don’t want a double-breasted consultant, or transaction expert with one hand in the pocket.

“He doesn’t understand the people, he doesn’t know Edo State, he can’t speak the language of his village. Even the day he went to announce himself, he carried an interpreter to speak to his villagers. When he finished, he went to Benin, he didn’t sleep in the village because according to his view, local people are all witches and wizards. A man like that can’t govern. How can I secretly support him? For what? Asue is a worse version.”

But the former Edo governor did not run away with the spiral attack as a barrage of criticisms and abuses, majorly from many chieftains and national leadership of the party, were relentlessly hauled at him.

While attacking Oshiomhole over such a comment, a PDP chieftain and 2023 presidential aspirant, Dele Momodu, noted: “I watched my big brother, Comrade Oshiomhole. I was embarrassed, I was scandalised that he was preaching division and saying because somebody cannot speak a language, they are unelectable.”

Also berating the former APC National Chairman over his failed attempt to confuse Edo people with claims of a non-existent court judgment against Ighodalo, the PDP national leadership accused him of struggling to convey a false narrative laden with fabrications and barefaced lies.

PDP, in a statement by its spokesman, Debo Ologunagba, noted that; “Oshiomhole’s demeanour when he was confronted with the truth was to say the least pitiable, as he stammered and could not provide any judgment against the candidature of Asue Ighodalo.

“Oshiomhole’s utterance is consistent with his antecedent of purveying falsehood, smear campaign, and embellishment against individuals and groups that he feels threatened about, as evident in his unprintable assault against the person of Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu during the 2016 Edo governorship election campaign.

“Nigerians can remember how Oshiomhole brazenly and at various times described Ize-Iyamu as an impostor, a fake pastor, rusticated student, a career dropout, acid bath assailant, liar, cultist, treasury looter; a non-performer, an incompetent and questionable character, who is only good for night meetings and not fit to be the governor of Edo State, only for him to turn around during the 2020 Edo governorship election campaign to recant all that he said against Ize-Iyamu in 2016.

“It is therefore clear that Oshiomhole is an inconsistent character whose words and pronouncements cannot be relied upon. Happily, Edo people already know his stock-in-trade and therefore place no value or premium on whatever comes out of his mouth.”

The state chapter of the party escalated the attack, challenging the candidate of APC, Monday Okpebholo, to a debate, ahead of the September poll, in a manner that tends to prove a point that its candidate has an edge over his APC counterpart.

Deputy Director General of the PDP governorship campaign council, Olu Martins, had quipped: “We are challenging the APC candidate and others to a debate with our candidate, Ighodalo. The Edo NUJ is organising one, and we hope the APC candidate and others will attend the debate with our candidate.”

Not done yet, the state Commissioner for Communication and Orientation, Chris Nehikhare, took a swipe at the APC, emphasising: “their candidate, Okpebholo, has continued to embarrass the party and his handlers in both private and public for a with his poor grasp of basic concepts and intellectual immaturity, consistently displaying an inability to articulate and coherently sell his vision to the electorate and other key stakeholders.

“Reeling from the pains of selling a bad and unmarketable candidate and having failed in their desperate resort to lies and propaganda to hoodwink Edo people ahead of the election, the only path the APC in Edo State now sees to promote their campaigns is to cause chaos and crisis in the state.

“Our findings reveal that the APC plans to incite civil unrest in the state and cause chaos under the guise of riots and protests to disrupt the peace and stability of the state while diverting attention from their candidate’s weaknesses and buying time to avoid debates and meaningful engagement with the people.”

Head or tail, what is however, undisputable is that the last, in the anticipated clash among the PDP and APC gladiators, has not yet been heard, because the major players have political scores to settle against the other.

From Governor Obaseki, who would go to any length to prove to his godfather, Oshiomhole that he has become the emerging force of Edo politics and to President Tinubu that he can still defeat him and his political structure even as the President of the country as he did during the 2020 poll, the Edo election will certainly be a clash and show of force.

The desperation of the APC leadership to use the election as a litmus test to prove its federal might will also be a confirmation that so much is at stake.

While summarising the Edo geopolitics trajectory ahead of the poll, a member of the APC national leadership predicted, in a chat with Daily Sun, that the election will be bloody.

“Governor Obaseki has returned to the trenches against Oshiomhole because he has so much point to prove. He equally has scores to settle with President Tinubu who did everything to ensure that he did not win the 2020 governorship election.

“Governor Obaseki did not also justifiably support Tinubu during the 2023 presidential election. With federal might likely to be deployed, the Edo election will be a battleground to settle scores. Again, the election will also provide the avenue for both Obaseki and his estranged deputy, Shaibu, to resolve the festering rift between them.

“Of course, my party, the APC is desperate not only to reclaim Edo State but also to win more states in the South-South in its determination to increase its number of states in the oil-rich geopolitical zone. What you cannot controvert is that so much will be at stake due to the strategic importance and disposition of Edo State in the political dynamics of the country, especially as the plot for the 2027 presidential election has already started,” the chieftain argued.

Although the tantrums and exacerbating crossfire between the main gladiators within the political parties have not got to an alarming level, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has however expressed deep concerns over the possible escalation of insecurity in the state ahead of the poll.

Chairman of the commission, Mahmood Yakubu, who raised the alarm at the quarterly consultative meetings with relevant election stakeholders, referenced the security brawl at the Edo airport recently which claimed the life of Okpebholo’s police orderly.

Hear him: “Campaign by political parties and candidates is in full swing in both Edo and Ondo states. The commission finds the recent event in Edo State resulting in the death of security personnel worrisome. This is the time for party leaders to demonstrate compliance with the commission’s Regulations and Guidelines for Political Parties 2022, especially the aspect dealing with rallies, processions and campaigns.

“The campaign period has often been characterised by acrimony and tension. Sadly, it is also a period of verbal abuse and physical confrontation among parties, candidates, and their supporters. Happily, there has been no incident known to the commission since then.

“Nevertheless, the commission will meet with the security agencies under the auspices of the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES). I want to assure you that security in Edo and Ondo will be a major issue for discussion at the meeting. We are as concerned about the safety of your candidates, agents, and supporters as we are about the security of our officials, observers, journalists, service providers, and above all, the voters.”

Incidentally, by the ratings and analysis of the commission and political observers on the readiness for the Edo governorship election, it is likely going to be a three-horse race by every ramification.

From the level of commitments by the commission, there is every indication that the election will be a test of might among the PDP, motivated by the incumbency weight of the governor, the APC, propelled by both Oshiomhole and the federal might, and the Labour Party (LP) still under the propelling force of the Peter Obi wave that won the state in the 2023 presidential election.

The die Is cast for the survival of the fittest in next month’s Edo governorship poll and which political party the election will favour lies only in the womb of time. (Daily Sun)

Update news