Current projections show the Labour Party is heading for a landslide victory and Keir Starmer will be the next prime minister

Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on course to lose power after 14 years, while right-wing Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage could also enter Parliament

LONDON

The UK is holding its first general election in almost half a decade on Thursday, with opinion polls indicating an imminent change of guard as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party battles for survival.

The center-right Conservatives have been in power for 14 years, having taken the reins back in 2010 and winning three elections since then on the trot – 2015, 2017, and 2019.

However, latest polls suggest the main opposition Labour Party is heading for a decisive victory, holding a 20-point lead over the Conservatives.

There has also been a surge in support for the right-wing Reform UK party, setting the stage for a crucial battle at the ballot on July 4.

How does voting work?

Millions of voters across the UK will elect 650 lawmakers, one each from a constituency, for the House of Commons, the lower house of Parliament.

The UK has a first-past-the-post system, meaning a candidate just needs to get more votes than their rivals to win a seat. There are no runoffs, so the only voting day is this Thursday.

Polling stations will be open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time (0600 GMT to 2100 GMT), after which exit polls will start providing an initial snapshot of the results.

While some results may trickle in before midnight, the bulk of the results are expected during the early hours of Friday.

For parties, the target is winning at least 50% of the seats – 326 – to have a majority and get a mandate from King Charles III to form a government.

In the event that no party achieves a majority, there will be a hung parliament.

Parties can then collaborate and form a coalition government, with the leader of the one with the biggest share of seats usually ending up as the next prime minister.

Who are the main contenders?

This election is largely a battle between Sunak’s Conservatives and the Labour Party, which has been led since April 2020 by former public prosecutions director Keir Starmer.

The Conservative Party won 43% of the vote in 2019, securing 365 seats initially, though the number decreased to 344 after various by-elections.

Labour had 32% of the vote in the last election, increasing its seats from 202 to 205.

Other key parties include the Liberal Democrats, led by Ed Davey, who previously formed a coalition government with the Conservatives from 2010 to 2015.

The Greens, led by Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay, and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK are the other main challengers.

Regional parties such as John Swinney’s Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru led by Rhun ap Iorwerth focus on Scottish and Welsh issues, while the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Gavin Robinson represents Northern Ireland.

There are also 459 independent candidates competing in this election, according to state broadcaster BBC.

When the British Parliament dissolved on May 30, a week after Sunak announced the elections, the Conservatives had 344 seats (52.9%), followed by Labour’s 205 (31.5%), SNP with 43 (6.6%), Liberal Democrats 15 (2.3%), and other parties and independents had 43 seats.

- What are the major issues for voters?

Several critical issues are on voters’ minds as they prepare to elect a new government, with polls showing that economic concerns top the list.

Research published by polling firm YouGov a month ago said a staggering 45% saw the cost of living as their biggest concern, followed by health at 34%, “the economy in general” at 32%, and immigration at 26%.

YouGov’s separate tracker shows that, as of June 24, the economy was the most important issue for voters at 52%, with health care a close second at 50%.

Immigration and asylum, an issue particularly being pushed by the Conservatives and Reform UK, was at 40%, followed by housing on 24%, the environment at 20% and crime on 18%.

Who is expected to win?

Current projections indicate a Labour victory is a certainty on Thursday.

Voting intention data from polling company Ipsos, collected between June 21 and June 24, placed Labour at 42%, down 1 percentage point from earlier in the month.

Conservatives had seen a significant decline, dropping 4 percentage points to 19%.

The Liberal Democrats had a modest increase, climbing 3 percentage points to 11%, while the Greens dropped 2 percentage points to 7%.

Reform UK, notably, had surged to 15%, an increase of 6 percentage points.

These figures exclude those who expressed no voting intention or were undecided, and those who refused to answer.

The Liberal Democrats, with their current momentum, still have a chance to secure more seats than the Conservatives. Projections suggest Reform UK could win seven seats, which would be a significant milestone for the party.

If the current polling trends are reflected in the election results, Labour is poised for a landslide victory with at least 424 out of 650 seats, followed by Conservatives with 135, Liberal Democrats 47, and SNP with 19.

In Scotland, Labour is leading the SNP by single-digit margins in the polls.

In 2019, Labour won just one of the 59 Scottish seats, while the SNP secured 48.

Additionally, in seat-specific polls, Reform UK leader Farage is showing a strong lead in Clacton, suggesting he is likely to win and enter Parliament for the first time after seven failed attempts. (Anadolu Agency)

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