One of the earliest proverbs I learnt in my early years in elementary educational faculty was: “A wise man whose house or yam barn is on fire does not go chasing rats.” The proverb means that when local issues become troubling or troubled the best thing to do is to find permanent solution, and not to abandon ship and go about doing good for far distant people.

Nigeria is on the threshold of a national economy that is about collapsing. The national and sub-national governments are in total disarray regarding what economic model to adopt to achieve rapid economic recovery, given the fast-declining crude oil market globally. State government can't pay salaries because governors steal the allocations accruing from the federally-shared allocations from the National Cake. The Federal Government borrows averagely the sum of N600 billion yearly to service the salaries of federal workers, so says the Secretary to the Government of the Federation. The President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, since coming to power a year ago, has been fishing all over the world for the most suitable and sustainable alternative to the dwindling international asking price of crude oil. The foreign trips, which gulp billions of scarce foreign exchange, is seen as evidence that the Federal Government does not have any reliable economic team. The finance minister, Mrs Kemi Adeosun, has been described by international funders as a light weight when compared with the immediate past economic and finance minister, Prof (Mrs) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

Beginning with the USA, the Nigerian President has traversed Middle East, Asia and the Far East. But for the ordinary Nigerians there’s no solution close enough to bridge the gap between the few who have stolen so much from our common till with the millions who are absolutely impoverished and poverty stricken.

For three months, motorists and companies can't get enough premium motor spirit and diesel to power their electricity energy and what this means is that millions of people who were hitherto gainfully employed are being laid off by these companies whose operational costs have skyrocketed due to scarcity of fuel and the poor state of infrastructure. Understandably, the economic outlook this year is hovering dangerously within the precipice of dysfunctionality.

Renowned global audit firm, PriceWaterhouseCooper, in its recent forecast on the performance of the Nigerian economy in 2016, said with a lot of uncertainty surrounding the economy, it will struggle to grow at 4.0 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

“Our economists have developed three economic scenarios to help public and private sector organisations prepare for an uncertain environment in 2016. In these scenarios, we explored two types of shocks: an oil price shock and a political shock. We expect that even under a benign economic scenario, the Nigerian economy will struggle to realise any growth much higher than 4.0 per cent.

Nigeria’s economy has tended to suffer following an oil price crash, although its resilience has improved in more recent times. Getting the policy response right matters, as falling economic growth imposes a real ‘human’ cost on the population,” PWC stated in its recently published 2015/2016 World Economic Outlook. As if this sad analysis isn't enough bad news for Nigerians, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently cut Nigeria’s GDP growth forecast for 2016, to 4.0 per cent growth rate, as the country continues to contend with the challenge of declining income from the drop in crude oil prices. The latest growth forecast by the fund is 2.25 percentage points lower than its last year’s projection for Nigeria. The Brettonwood institution stated this in its 208-page world economic outlook titled, Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices, released in Washington DC, United States, recently.

Amidst the foregoing graphical projection of ugly economic scenarios, the current invasion of several Nigerian retail markets by the South African franchise known as Shoprite is troubling. This invasion is even more destructive in the South-east. This is of great concern because, of all the geopolitical zones, the South-East’s economy depends substantially on retail trading. But with the flooding of the retail market of the zone by foreign-originated and designed trading retail stores, millions of small-time traders will be forced to close shop since the South African shops are usually more attractive to politically exposed persons, especially in the South-East. They secretly buy into the South African shops by simply nominating their stooges to be their fronts in the establishment. Consequently, politicians such as governors thereby launder their loots in the South African business outlets, where return on investment is high, because of the powerful propaganda and media mileage these companies awash with slush funds enjoy.

Corruption is not a stranger in South Africa, since President Jacob Zuma has been indicted for theft of public funds to furnish his private residence.

There are speculations that in Imo State the governor and his family own the magnificent plaza housing the newly-established Shoprite in Owerri. So far, there is no hard proof to back up the speculation, but if the body language of Okorocha is anything to go by, then I think there's no smoke without fire.

Similarly, Anambra has followed suit with the opening of branches of the South African shops and, sadly, millions of younger persons turn out to patronise the foreign businesses, because the owners use South Africa-controlled MultiChoice to market them through DSTV’s propaganda glamorising these shops. Most undergraduates and younger persons now see it as a status symbol: to take selfie shortly after shopping or just roaming around the colourful business premises of these Shoprite stores. These youths are copying their elders who have insatiable taste for anything foreign. It is pathetic that neither states nor the Federal Government has yet to provide a buffer for the petty traders in their millions in the South-East. They will inevitably loose out, if the current invasion of the South Africans in the South-East to take control of the retail economy isn't checked.

It is baffling that South-East governors are celebrating the coming of these retail outlets from South Africa as a big achievement, even without giving a thought to what will become of their states, should these foreigners be given unfettered access to dominate the South-East retail markets. For example, Governor Rochas Okorocha abandoned all official duties to personally open the multi-million naira Shoprite outlet in Owerri, the Imo State capital. Observers say this lends credence to the claims that he knew more about Shoprite, Owerri, than he has spoken out.

Delivering his speech at the opening ceremony of the company, Okorocha said that the ‘rescue mission’ government has opened its arms to welcome investors to the state and enjoined all people, irrespective of political divides, to come and invest in the state. His words: “We must now, irrespective of political affiliations, unite and save the lives of the numerous young Ndi-Imo who are looking up to us for leadership. Many of you will wonder what will an APC governor be doing in a business championed by a PDP chieftain?”

Okorocha's empty rhetoric continued: “Let me say to you, we must learn to defend our political parties. But in governance for the people, we must learn to unite and provide to our people the much-needed dividends of democracy. That is the singular reason why I have supported this project.”

The local press reported that Okorocha, who is facing a wave of criticism for leadership failure, thanked the sponsor of the project, Nze Herbert Chikwe, for partnering with the government in its quest to boost the economy of the state, adding: “I am here to challenge all Imolites, especially the privileged ones, irrespective of political affiliations to come down at home just as Nze Chikwe has done.”

Chikwe is the husband of one time aviation minister, and erstwhile National Women Leader of Peoples Democratic Party that ruled Nigeria from 1999 to 2015. This same man recently had a brush with the law over alleged land-related fraud. The Anambra State governor, Willie Obiano, followed Okorocha’s pathetically irrational footsteps by pouring encomiums on the owners of the South African franchise.

Obiano also commissioned the Shoprite Mall in Onitsha, the Anambra State commercial hub. Onitsha is known as the town with the largest market in West Africa, but years of neglect by subsequent state governments to provide functional infrastructures and the failure of banks to provide funds and credit lines to enable these traders to upgrade their businesses have caused the fortunes of most traders of Onitsha to nosedive.

But why is Okorocha and Obiano celebrating the advent of foreign-owned retail outlets that threaten the existence of the small scale indigenous traders?

In Lagos, where Shoprite also commands significant presence, it is easy for the state and the South-west economy to absorb the shock, since virtually 75 per cent of manufacturers operate from the Lagos/Ogun axis. But in the entire South-East, the dominant business of most adults is retail business. How then will the coming of retailers from South Africa be of advantage? As stated earlier, there are allegations that public funds are laundered through these shops, and almost 90 per cent of what is sold in Shoprite are imported wares. How come people think that Shoprite will boost the economic prospects of Nigerian farmers, if even oranges sold in Shoprite are imported?

I think the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Bank of Industry must jointly partner to rescue the indigenous retail markets by sustainably rendering credit facilities to these traders who are on the brink of extinction, because of the invasion of the local retail market by foreigners. Nigeria will be unstable and unsafe if government allows foreigners to chase local traders out of their retail trades in Nigeria. It is of urgent national security interest that the future of these traders are constructively analysed and a permanent soft-landing provided.

In other climes, foreign direct investors aren't allowed to go into common retail markets, especially if such businesses will depend on imports to stock back their shops. For instance, most retailers in the food and beverage sector in the United Kingdom who are Asians simply bring in their funds and set up these shops and stock their stores with products made in Britain.

Responsible state governments should act before it is too late.

•RIGHTSVIEW appears on Wednesdays, in addition to special appearances. The Columnist, popular activist Emmanuel Onwubiko, is a former Federal Commissioner of Nigeria’s National Human Rights Commission and presently National Coordinator of Human Rights Writers’ Association of Nigeria (HURIWA). He can be reached via 08033327672 (sms only) or via doziebiko@yahoo.com

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