With the eventual conclusion of the 2023 general election at both the poll and the appeal petitions at various courts, the preparations for the 2027 general elections have already commenced in earnest. The alignments, realignments by the political actors and the networking for possible floating of a mega political force to dislodge the ruling party from its stronghold has also commenced.

Expectedly, the actors behind the proposed coalition of mega political parties, in desperate determination to form a formidable political force to extricate the All Progressives Congress (APC), especially at the centre in the 2027 general election, are voicing out their plans.

Of course, what started as a desire and proclamation by the political leaders and presidential candidates of the opposition parties that lost out both at the poll and at the election appeal petition in the Supreme Court, has progressively gained momentum and blossoming into a political force.

On one side, hitherto politically-informed heavyweights, comprising majorly deeply aggrieved immediate past ministers and state governors are speculated to be largely behind the formation of the now masked faceless individuals proposing to constitute themselves into a political alliance.

On the other hand, the confirmation last week that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) have resolved to transmute into a political merger to wrest power from the APC in the 2027 general elections, has become the peak chain of the speculated proposed alignment for new mega parties.

Surprisingly, the report confirming the proposed merger, which emanated from a political economist, Pat Utomi, has assumed the dimensions of a crossfire among political actors with the national leadership of the ruling party dismissing the arrangement with a wave of the hand.

Utomi had while appearing on a television programme, said that; “Nigeria has not managed to organise the structures for political participation that can focus on the Nigerian people and lift their lives. I can tell you that the presidential candidates of PDP, LP, and NNPP may join forces to establish a formidable political party aimed at ousting the APC in 2027.”

But, firing back warnings, the APC, in a statement signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, chided that; “as a serial promoter of mega parties that never materialise, Utomi’s statement cannot be taken that seriously. In 2021, Utomi and his collaborators disturbed the airwaves with plans to launch a people-centred ideological mega party under the auspices of the National Consultative Front (NCFront) to dislodge the APC and the PDP. That plan did not go past the news headlines.

“Now in 2024, Utomi is touting a possible merger or collaboration between the LP, NNPP, and the PDP, vastly the political parties, according to him, that are bereft of any ideological orientation or “did not manage to create an alignment with the Nigerian people to improve the quality of their lives.

“One can only infer that Utomi may be positing that his personal involvement in the proposed alliance will transmogrify the same parties he adjudged to be decadent and anti-people, into bastions of political and economic liberty for Nigerians. That is an unmitigated delusion of grandeur.”

From every indication, the proponents of the proposed coalition must have been motivated by the success story of many political parties that merged in 2014 to eventually produce the APC, which ultimately wrested power at the centre from the then ruling party, the PDP, and the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan.

Obviously rattled by PDP’s stronghold on power then, including its bragging right to be in charge for 60 years, opposition politicians and parties had, after several failed attempts to seize power from PDP, agreed to form a mega alliance.

The legacy parties involved in the coalition included the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Coalition for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), some factions of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), and more importantly the dissident PDP group, popularly called the nPDP.

It was an alliance that came with strong political potency and force; a coalition that produced an unprecedented instant maximum result, with former president Muhmmadu Buhari and the APC defeating the incumbent and forging ahead to not only consolidate its grip on power but also learnt fast the trick and rudiments of winning elections.

And today, having consolidated itself in power, and become a political force and a huge threat to the chances of other opposition parties winning election both at the poll and at the law court, opposing political actors have expectedly started gathering again to strategize on how to form an alliance to dislodge the ruling party.

The best option or card on the table for now, according to them, is the collaboration to transmute the three political parties, PDP, LP, and the NNPP into a strong political alliance to give the ruling APC the huge run for their money.

In every ramification and perhaps ultimately considering their overwhelming impacts during the presidential election last year and by extension the legal battle they fought to pose a threat and scare on the APC, the alliance by the three parties ought to give serious concern to the governing APC and every politically conscious Nigerian.

From benefit of hindsight and based on the acceptability of the political leaders, and national spread of the parties and the political leaders currently enjoy, the proposed alliance by the three parties should actually be a cause for concern to the ruling party.

Remarkably, the intimidating influences of the leaders behind the planned collaboration will fall in line with the saying that the chain is as weak or strong as its weakest or strongest part.

From Atiku Abubakar leading the charge from the PDP angle to Peter Obi who has revolutionalized the LP with his indubitable Obidient followers across every part of the country, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso with his conspicuous presence in the North, those behind the proposed alliance would not have asked for more in terms of the political weight of the persons to bankroll and actualise the alliance into a reality.

The personality profiles of those involved in the merger is, to say the least, intimidating and frightening if only they can successfully pull the trigger and the string through. Their financial disposition, personality clouts, capacity, and capability are not, in any way, in doubt.

Luckily, there is no doubt that the good number of state governors and legislators under their control, whims, and caprices across the country will definitely be an added advantage or impetus to the dream merger.

However, the merger, incidentally, due to certain endemic factors, seems to not only be facing threat already but also perhaps looks even dead on arrival. Obvious reasons like unquenchable administrative appetite, and selfish individual political interest by the three leaders behind the proposed merger, which will certainly clash, will asphyxiate and stifle the dream.

In the perception of many political watchers, it would be easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for any of them to sacrifice their political ambition, collapse their political structure, and deploy human and material resources to support one another.

For instance, in his wildest imagination, it would be extremely difficult for an Atiku Abubakar to shelve his apparently inordinate political ambition to become the president of Nigeria just to support any of the co-captains like Peter Obi or Rabiu Kwankwaso in the ship with him.

On the flip side, even if an Obi or Kwankwaso magnanimously decides to sacrifice their ambition, the impression of their general acceptance from their numerous Nigerian supporters and followers, ready to push, and urge them on, will definitely make it impossible.

Believe it or not, their supporters will not allow them to throw in their towels because of their convictions that they have high mathematical chances of winning any presidential contest, especially in the forthcoming 2027 general election.

Unfortunately, again, none of the three political leaders is ready to subordinate themselves to second fiddle as vice president, especially due to the over-bloated impression of themselves as the next president after the next election.

“Have you ever imagined what a perfect combination of an Atiku and Obi, or Kwankwaso and Obi and or Obi and Kwankwaso joint tickets would have done to the Tinubu APC presidential ticket last year? The unprecedented number of votes Obi pulled across the country with the Kano votes for Kwankaso would have boosted the joint ticket to deny Asiwaju that victory.

“I am very particular about what an Obi and Kwankwaso joint candidacy would have resulted in during last year’s presidential election. But, the perception of a strong personality complex in each of them as capable enough to be the next president scuttled what could have been a resounding victory for both of them.

“Ironically, I don’t see such a partnership making any impact in the next presidential election in 2027. Already, their parties, the LP and NNPP, are perceived largely as regional political forces. The LP is seen as an Igbo party and NNPP, as a Kano state party. For now, they don’t have that national spread and I don’t think APC will fold its hands and watch them achieve that,” a political leader told Daily Sun in confidence while appraising the political permutations for the 2027 presidential election.

“If only the APC can allow LP to enlarge its coast beyond the Igbo ethnic base, I have suggested to them to shop for a National Publicity Secretary with an Hausa background. Such a new party’s spokesperson should immediately start to sell and make the presence of the party felt particularly in the northern part of the country.

“The spokesperson should exploit all the media outreach like BBC Hausa service, VOA, and other media outfits in the North using Hausa service to sell the party. LP has the potential to make an appreciable impact in 2027 but this is the time to start networking,” he advised.

Perhaps, in what looks like sharing the sentiment and fears on the impending controversy over who will emerge as the presidential candidate of the mega party in the 2027 election, Utomi said: “No, no, we are not talking about candidates now. We are talking about what the party will look like, the values that the party will stand for, the policies that the party will stand for, and the national strategy.”

But, beyond the permutations and calculations, the reality on ground is the difficult or herculean task of defeating the incumbent, President Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

What is incontrovertible is that if President Tinubu could surmount all the multiple mountainous odds to emerge victorious during last year’s highly contentious election, it is predictable what he will do now that he is comfortably in the driving seat.

Again, should the trio be unable to defeat President Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election, which looks most likely, how many of them behind the proposed merger will still be strong and energetic enough to remain a force in the 2031 presidential election?

But, more instructively, apart from Atiku and perhaps Obi still in a commanding position to bring their parties, the PDP and LP respectively to the discussion table for the proposed merger, Kwankwaso looks very highly unlikely to do so, considering his numerous endless battles to re-establish and reclaim his control of the NNPP structure since last year.

Kwankwaso, will definitely not dictate the pace or be in a commanding position to decide the fate of NNPP joining the merger because his hitherto overwhelming influence on the party waned after his suspension. It is understandable because he is the biggest casualty of the post-election victory leadership crisis which almost consumed the party.

The speculated merger by the three political parties is perhaps certainly not the only possible coalition card on the table. Another possible speculated alignment is the one involving many influential political figures that majorly served under the Muhammadu Buhari-led administration as ministers and or past state governors.

Though still in the realm of speculations, the alleged faces behind the proposed coalition include former ministers and past state governors like Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State, Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun, Chris Ngige, Rauf Aregbesola, and many others still struggling to reclaim their political relevance after unfavourable political misadventure last year and after falling out with the current government.

Like the Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso proposed merger arrangements, the proposed coalition by these disgruntled individuals, according to many pundits, may not have already hit brick walls but also dead on arrival for very obvious reasons.

Describing them as a bunch of resentful political figures embarking on a mission to settle scores with the current administration, an APC chieftain told Daily Sun on condition of anonymity that like an elephant, the coalition cannot fly due to lack of capacity and network to make it work.

“Yes, they may have played a noticeable role in the merger that produced the APC and even contributed materially and intellectually in building APC into a dominant political brand, but the name of the game is financial war-chest and strong network.

“They may perhaps still be influential, though without a strong political base, however, since they don’t have any serving state governor they played an influential role in their installation that can channel state resources for their use to fight and support their cause, they apparently may not make any appreciable impact in posing any threat to either the ruling party, APC or the opposition parties planning a possible merger arrangement,” the political leader argued.

Curiously, judging by the positions of the political gladiators and mutual suspicion of hatched secret plans to take undue advantage of the proposed merger to hijack the mega party structure to feather their nests, the dream and plan to build a strong political force to rattle the ruling party may at best remain a pipedream

Atiku, for instance, may have confirmed readiness to drag the PDP to the merger table and even volunteered to lead the coalition to oust the ruling party, but a PDP chieftain and leader like the Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike, who is like a bull in a China shop, will definitely make such arrangement almost practically impossible.

Reacting to the verdict of the Supreme Court, specifically on the Kano, Plateau, and Zamfara governorship appeal petitions, recently, Atiku noted that; “I am as prepared as ever to lead the charge, alongside all our leaders and governors, for the good of our country.”

According to him; “Where justice is seen to have been substantially rendered, we, as patriots and citizens, will always applaud. There is a guaranteed continuation of the standards of good governance that the PDP has brought to the respective states.”

For the fact that you can never say never in politics, every card on the table cannot be foreclosed as the gladiators are still strategizing far ahead of time for the ultimate battle royale in the 2027 presidential election. (Daily Sun)

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