With over 26 million Nigerians expected to face acute level of hunger and malnutrition in 2024 alone; added to the 133 million populace already grappling with multidimensional poverty as a metaphor of their existence, there are clear and present dangers over the continuous safety and security of lives of the average citizen.

In 1672 when the famous French playwright Molière, born Jean-Baptiste Poquelin, in a moment of exasperation wrote that “it is good food and not fine words that keeps me alive,” he was actually speaking for the majority of Nigerians, who are seriously lamenting the unprecedented hunger in the land currently and can’t seem to be placated by the government’s plausible explanations that they need to endure hunger even if for a little longer still!

With an estimated 223 million people, which is equivalent to 2.78 percent of the total world population, tackling food insecurity in Nigeria should be a serious cause for concern, according to Prof. Abel Ogunwale, a professor of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development at the Ladoke Akintola University of Technology (LAUTECH), Ogbomosho, Oyo State.

Ogunwale, a World Bank consultant who spoke with our correspondent recently against the backdrop of the lingering food crisis in the country, lamented the parlous state of affairs, especially in the agriculture value chain in arguably what is today the largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) size in Africa.

For many discerning Nigerians like Ogunwale, it is rather unthinkable that Nigeria, with over 70 million hectares of arable land cannot feed itself adequately and has to rely on food imports from otherwise landlocked countries.

From available information, Nigeria spends hundreds of millions of dollars annually on food imports mainly for wheat, rice, fish, yams, livestock, dairy products, and other food crops the country has the capacity to produce even on a sustainable basis.

Rising wage bill on food imports

Despite the different intervention programmes by the federal government to shore up the nation’s food production, the country recorded a food trade deficit worth N4.92 trillion between 2018 and 2022.

Specifically, the country recorded a 121.7 percent increase in the value of imported foods within the five year period, rising to N1.9 trillion in 2022 from N857 billion in 2018.

According to data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the total agricultural imports into Nigeria from 2018 to 2022 amounted to N6.916 trillion while total agricultural exports from the country within the period was N1.997 trillion, resulting in an agricultural trade deficit of N4.919 trillion.

The data also showed that there has been a steady rise in agricultural imports into the country since 2018 which recorded N857 billion imports; and rose to N959 billion in 2019; N1.2 trillion in 2020; N2 trillion in 2021; before a moderate decline to N1.9 trillion in 2022.

However, within the same period, agricultural exports from the country amounted to N302 billion in 2018; N270 billion in 2019; N322 billion in 2020; N505 billion in 2021; and N598 billion in 2022, indicating a rise of 98 percent from 2018 to 2022.

Although agriculture contributes 22 percent of the nation’s total GDP and employs over 80 percent of the population, smallholder farmers who are responsible for 90 percent of food production in Nigeria lack the resources to improve their productivity.

FG’s interventions programmes only good on paper

The federal government has over the years spent millions of dollars on various agricultural programmes to spur local food production but the received wisdom out there is that the various interventions programmes implemented through different government agencies appear to have done little to address the food crisis situation in the country.

The CBN had in mid-January 2023 revealed that it had disbursed a cumulative amount of N1.08 trillion to farmers through the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP) in the last seven years, between 2015 and 2022.

ABP was launched in November 2015 in an effort to boost agricultural production, improve foreign exchange earnings and reverse Nigeria’s negative balance of trade on food.

The apex bank further noted that between January and February 2023, the CBN disbursed N12.65 billion to three agricultural projects under the programme.

This is beside other schemes such as the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) and Accelerated Agricultural Development programme, amongst others, all designed to boost the nation’s food production.

These programmes, in addition to the ABP, have been valued at over N3.0 trillion over the years.

Unfortunately, analysts who have been following the implementation of the programmes have argued that there is still no significant impact as the country still has a huge supply gap in most of its staple foods, even as the population growth rate continues to soar.

Huge import bill worrisome

Certainly, to many discerning Nigerians, the enormous bill on food imports is something that calls for urgent concern.

While commenting on what he described as a very troubling phenomenon, the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf said, “Rising food import bill is extremely worrisome, especially for a country so richly blessed with arable land and numerous other natural resources.

“The basic problem is governance. Over the years, especially since the seventies, we have not instituted effective policies and programmes to promote investment in agriculture.

“There was practically no subsidy for agriculture for several years, whereas even in the advanced countries, billions of dollars are committed to subsidising agriculture.

“We need active government intervention with regards to agricultural inputs, technology adaptation, financing, processing, marketing, logistics, access to land and storage.

“There is a need to improve the efficiency in the entire agricultural value chain – production, processing, transportation, preservation, packaging, etc.

“It is impossible for the private sector to provide these support systems. These support systems existed in Nigeria before the incursion of the military into political governance in 1966.

“An improvement in the security situation would surely boost performance of the sector. This would impact job creation and food security in the country.”

Fear of food insecurity…

Nigeria is not totally immune to food insecurity. The fear in some quarters is that Nigeria, just like it happened in the distant past, may suffer some form of food insecurity if nothing is done to safeguard the states within the nation’s food basket from lingering insecurity, menace of flooding, poor infrastructure, etcetera.

This is in spite of the several interventions by successive governments, especially in the last 20 years or more.

While attempting a prognosis of the food crisis, Prof Ogunwale said the problem is multifaceted and as such is not a one size fits all approach.

“We have major problems hindering our food security from four perspectives. One is the issue of security threats vis-à-vis the situation in Benue, Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Adamawa axis and even the borderline between Nigeria and Cameroon and the other aspect is the Nigeria and Niger Republic issue,” he said.

The insecurity, he maintained, is as a result of the Boko Haram insurgency in parts of the north. “We have a lot of insurgency activities affecting those areas.”

“The second challenge, of course, is the issue of climate change. Climate change has resulted in flooding, and some devastation on the farming system,” he observed, adding that the issue of inconsistencies of government policies have seriously and negatively impacted farming activities generally.

“If the government can look into each of them, and take proactive measures against next year, we may avert serious food insecurity in Nigeria,” he said.

Farms no longer safe

For many people, insecurity is at the heart of the matter of the food crisis in the country today. From Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo, Osun, Edo, Kogi, Delta, Benue, Kaduna, Taraba, Borno, Nasarawa, Zamfara, Sokoto, Anambra, Enugu, Imo, and other parts of the federation, the farmers have not become just endangered species but have since abandoned their farm steads, no thanks to the lingering problem of insecurity they confront on a daily basis.

The rapidity of the assaults of events on the farmlands is such that many people have even lost count of how and when it happens.

As at the time of filing in this report, news filtered in that some gunmen had sacked several communities in Taraba state, abducting a traditional ruler, a pregnant woman and her kids along with 22 others.

Amongst those kidnapped were two police officers – a sergeant attached to the monarch and an inspector who was on casual leave, residents said.

Taraba is among several states in northern and central Nigeria where bandit gangs operate, raiding villages, killing and abducting residents as well as burning and looting homes.

The criminals have been notorious for mass kidnappings of students from schools in recent years. Hundreds of thousands of people have also been displaced in rural areas in the northern and central parts of Nigeria, where bandit militias raid villages to loot and kidnap scores of residents to hold them for ransom in forest hideouts.

The heart-wrenching story of a journalist-turned-cassava-farmer, who simply wished to be identified as Adams, is an eye-opener of some sorts.

Adams, who ventured into the field of agriculture for about 24 months, said his unpleasant experience has made him give up hope about the redemption of the country.

“My actual vision was to start a 360 agric business from cultivating to processing of cassava, but Nigeria happened,” lamented the distraught Adams.

“I had over 25 hectares of cassava farm located at Owan East Local Government Area in Edo State,” he began, adding that he had undetermined the problem of insecurity on farms across the country until he literally suffered a near-death experience.

“My brother, I didn’t make any loss per se but I had to sell off all my produce and didn’t bother to reinvest again,” he recalled.

Pressed further, he said his experience with farming these past months was anything but pleasant.

“I had to shut down my farm because most of my neigbouring farmers were being kidnapped for ransom, and sometimes brutalised by suspected bandits. It got so bad that even the workforce became very difficult to find, as the majority of the Hausa men who would normally work on the farm were being hounded because they suspected that they were the ones behind the kidnapping. At the end they all left in droves because our people around here cannot easily distinguish between either a Hausa or a Fulani.”

While reiterating that the major problem of farming in the country today is that of insecurity, the budding entrepreneur said the government should stop paying lip service to the issue of insecurity.

“The lessons I learnt from your personal experience as a farmer, even if it was short-lived, showed me a lot of things. Certainly, if I must go into agric venture again, I will avoid some of the pitfalls,” he stressed.

Other factors affecting food production

Worried by the increasing cost of food and agricultural imports as a result of the government’s inability to stabilise the value of the naira against the US Greenback, the CBN had last October lifted foreign exchange restrictions for the importation of 43 items, including several food and agricultural products.

But despite this policy change, importers report continued challenges sourcing foreign exchange – as well as soft consumer demand because of the currency’s devaluation and high inflation.

A report by the NBS indicated that the downturn in food production in the country may not be attributable to the impact of insecurity alone.

The report indicated that prices of key farming inputs such as seeds, herbicides, pesticides, fertilizers, and agro machinery rose sharply within the period, making it increasingly hard for farmers to expand their production and forcing many to cut down on production.

Analysts attribute this situation to the operating environment characterised by low productivity, high post-harvest losses, low-value addition, fragmented markets, and inefficient value chain logistics.

“Nigeria, like other African countries, is battling food insecurity as a result of many factors such as instability of government in neighbouring countries like Niger where we get the bulk of our rice paddies, forex scarcity, farmer herder crisis, infrastructure challenge and poor access to finance for agribusiness, etc.,” Ogunwale noted matter-of-factly, stressing that many hitherto thriving farmers especially smallholders have abandoned their passion for agriculture to become commercial motorcyclists, amongst many other less life-threatening ventures.

Imminent hunger next year!

Although Nigerians are unhappy with the unprecedented level of hunger as the year ends, indications are that next year may be even worse off.

A damning report by Cadre Harmonisé, an initiative focused on food and nutrition analysis revealed that in 2024, Nigeria is expected to see about 26.5 million people grappling with high levels of food insecurity, just as approximately 9 million children are at risk of suffering from acute malnutrition or wasting.

Of these, an alarming 2.6 million children could face Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and require critical nutrition treatment.

The Cadre Harmonisé conducts studies biannually (in March and October) across 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

The latest projection for 2024 indicates a sharp rise from the 18.6 million people currently vulnerable to food insecurity from October to December 2023.

Several factors are driving this trend, including ongoing conflicts, climate change impacts, escalating inflation, and rising costs of both food and essential non-food commodities (in part due to the devaluation of the naira and the discontinuation of the fuel subsidy). Persistent violence in the north-eastern states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) hinders food availability and access.

Additionally, armed banditry and kidnappings in northwest and north-central states, including Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, and Niger, exacerbate the prevailing economic struggles.

Dr. Ernest Umakhihe, the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, underscored the significance of the Cadre Harmonisé during a presentation in Abuja, recently.

Represented by Mrs. Fausat Lawal, Director of Special Duties, Umekhihe highlighted that despite Government efforts, external challenges like the ongoing global economic effects of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, which disrupts food systems, persist.

Of the 18.6 million people who experience food insecurity today, 3.3 million live in the northeastern states of the BAY region. This number might rise to 26.5 million nationwide by the height of the 2024 lean season (and to 4.4 million in the BAY states) if immediate action is not taken.

Dominique Koffy Kouacou, the FAO Representative ad interim in Nigeria and to ECOWAS, while calling on the government to expand CH coverage to the remaining 10 states said, FAO would continue to support the government and the people of Nigeria to overcome food insecurity and malnutrition.

He stated, “In 2024, alongside our partners, FAO’s focus will be on agrifood systems transformation with deliberate attention on resilience-building, nutrition-sensitive agriculture, livestock, fisheries, and providing extension services.”

The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that floods in October 2023 in Adamawa impacted around 8,500 households, leading to mass displacements, particularly among women, children, and the elderly. Such extreme weather patterns, linked to the El Niño phenomenon, are further undermining food security “Food insecurity and malnutrition are among the main drivers of humanitarian need in the BAY states,” said Mr. Trond Jensen, the head of OCHA in Nigeria.

“People have been forced to adopt negative coping mechanisms such as survival sex and child labour to stay alive. Over the past year, dozens of farmers have lost their lives, and others have been abducted or injured while eking out a living outside the security perimeters of Borno’s garrison towns due to limited farming lands and few or no livelihood options.”

UNICEF’s Country Representative, Ms. Cristian Munduate, emphasised the urgent need for action.

She said, “Every child deserves proper nutrition and a life free from hunger. It’s not merely a responsibility but a moral duty for governments and the global community to ensure these rights are upheld.”

While highlighting the long-standing issue, David Stevenson, WFP’s Country Representative, said, “The hunger crisis in Nigeria, fueled by the ongoing conflict in the northeast, needs urgent addressing. Restoring peace in the northeast is critical for us to build pathways to production and achieve the northeast’s potential as the food basket of the country.”

The Cadre Harmonisé analysis covered 26 of Nigeria’s 36 states, including the FCT. It represents a collaborative effort led by the Nigerian government, in association with regional technical agencies,

Nigeria not alone

An estimated 50 million people in West, Central Africa are expected to go hungry next year due to a combination of conflict, climate change and high food prices, the United Nations has revealed.

The figure is 4% higher than in 2023. In coastal countries, the number of people facing acute hunger is expected to reach 6.2 million in 2024, up 16% from this year, according to a new regional food security analysis released by the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) and other humanitarian agencies.

“Acute hunger remains at record levels in the region, yet funding needed to respond is not keeping pace,” said Margot Vandervelden, WFP’s acting regional director for Western Africa.

“Insufficient funding means the moderately hungry will be forced to skip meals and consume less nutritious food, putting them at risk of falling back into crisis or emergency phases, perpetuating the cycle of hunger and malnutrition,” she said.

More than two out of three households in West and Central Africa cannot afford healthy diets, the analysis found.

The cost of a daily nutritious diet in the central Sahel countries Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger is 110% higher than the daily minimum wage in the region, it said.

Sahel countries are facing an Islamist insurgency that has displaced some four million people from their homes and farms, according to U.N. figures. Democratic Republic of Congo also has multiple ongoing conflicts that have displaced nearly seven million.

The Sahel crisis has pushed people to seek refuge in neighbouring coastal countries such as Ivory Coast, Togo and Ghana, which is grappling with its worst economic crisis in a generation.

“Almost 80% of people who are currently in a difficult food situation are in areas affected by conflict,” said Ollo Sib, a senior research adviser for the WFP.

He warned that without intervention, the situation could deteriorate further in certain areas as over 2.6 million people were at risk of falling into famine.

Way forward

In the view of Rotimi Opeyemi Olawale, CEO of JR Farms Limited, a leading agribusiness venture operates within few countries in Africa and Europe including Nigeria, Rwanda, Zambia and also the in Netherlands, at the root of the crisis of food insecurity plaguing Nigeria is poor farm systems and general insecurity.

While offering recommendations to tackle the food crisis in Nigeria, Olawale said there is a need to transit from smallholder farms to large farms.

“We cannot have food security when our food security model as a country is dependent on smallholder farmers- smallholder farmers are generally vulnerable and victims of risks, they also operate on a small scale without use of technologies that can accelerate food production,” he said.

Pressed further, he said, “66% of food sales in the US come from commercial farms which constitute less than 10% of the farming population. We need commercial farms in Nigeria. Over the years the government has rolled out several interventions in the past for smallholder farmers that did not produce good results, this must change as such the government should develop frameworks and interventions for commercial farms. This would ensure more food can be produced in large quantities to meet growing demand for food.”

On how to tackle the intractable problem of insecurity, he said the government must be ready to live up to its constitutional mandate of providing safety and security for the citizenry.

“In the past eight years, insecurity has driven many farmers out of farms and displaced many, many factory owners in rural areas have also been affected by kidnapping, killings among others. As part of the major ways to tackle the food crisis, farms and rural areas must be made safe and secure for farmers, investors, and food factories to operate.”

Also worrisome is the fact that the dearth of road infrastructure within and around local communities remains a disincentive to farming.

“Rural and major highways connecting farms to market are still in bad condition, this makes it difficult for trucks conveying food items to reach the market thereby leading to food losses. For example, over 60% of food items get wasted in Nigeria and the poor road network is one of the reasons. Trucks carrying perishables are stuck on the road for many days due to bad roads. Good roads are important for transportation of food from farm to market (city) hence ensuring food security.”

Also with the federal government already setting machinery in motion with a raft of policy interventions, it is expected that things would change for the better in no distant time.

Peter Adebola, an economic analyst, shares Olawale’s sentiments completely.

According to him, until the government addresses the twin issues of insecurity as well as boost commercial agriculture, the populace will continue to face acute hunger.

Thankfully, one of the blessed assurances of better things to come is the proposal by the African Development Bank to invest $1billion into Nigeria’s agricultural sector in order to ensure massive job opportunities and food security.

The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari dropped this hint during a press briefing with State House Correspondents after the conclusion of the 137th National Economic Council meeting presided over by Vice-President Kashim Shettima at the Aso Rock Villa, Abuja, recently.(The Nation)

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