The ceremonial handing over of party flags to the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidates for this weekend’s governorship elections in Imo, Bayelsa, and Kogi states by President Bola Tinubu, marked the climax of the final preparations and indication of readiness of the party for the polls.

It was the pinnacle, and culmination of several months of campaigns by the party’s candidates and stakeholders that crisscrossed the length and breadth of the local government areas of the states to lobby the electorate for votes during this weekend’s election.

It was more than just a ceremony to mark the endorsement by Mr. President. It was also the conferment of an intimidating symbol of authority on the candidates to send a warning signal to the opposition parties’ candidates that their APC counterparts are only inches away from victory.

Marching words with actions, Tinubu had, during the ceremony at the Banquet Hall of the Aso Rock Villa, surprisingly changed from his mantra of ‘grab power and run with it’ mentality, to demanding for free, fair, and transparent exercises in the three states.

“All I am pleading for is for free and fair elections. I believe we will do well,” President Tinubu charged the stakeholders, comprising the three candidates, Hope Uzodimma (Imo), Usman Ododo (Kogi), and Timipre Sylva (Bayelsa), the party’s national chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, and his National Working Committee (NWC) members, among others.

Exuding so much confidence in the chances of victory for the ruling party in the elections, President Tinubu hinged his conviction on the fact that hard work and records of the candidates, in addition to the collective efforts of the party officials, and members of the party’s NWC, would guarantee victory for the party.

“I want to thank the governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello, who is working hard to ensure a handover to our candidate, Usman Ododo. We are happy to have Hope Uzodimma, the great hope of our party, and chairman of the APC Progressives Governors Forum. Thank you for the good job you are doing.

“Timipre Sylva, congratulations on what you have achieved as a former governor and former minister. We are all facing this crusade for democracy, particularly in this time of elections. It is our hope and we have Hope Uzodimma as a candidate, that we will always come out victorious.

“I want to thank the active national leadership of our party, the NWC, and our hardworking chairman. He is doing a good job, and I thank him very much,” President Tinubu said.

Motivated by President Tinubu’s support and endorsements, the candidates are not only talking tough already, but also believing that lines have fallen perfectly in pleasant places for them, announcing that the election has been won and lost with victory predictably in their favour.

Dismissing the possibility of his mischievous relation with the incumbent governor, Bello, counting against him in the election, Ododo, argued that there was no violation of any part of the Constitution of Nigeria even if he is Governor Bello’s son.

He described as immaterial the fact that they are from the same Local Government Area, stressing: “On the issue of whether I am a cousin to His Excellency, well, Governor Bello is from Kogi State and I am from Kogi State also. We are from the same local government area but different districts. We are both from Okene Local Government Area. He is from Okene 1, and I am from Okene II district.

“However, even if I am his direct son, I think the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria does not, in any way, prohibit anyone from contesting for any position as far as this country is concerned,” he stated.

As for Sylva, he equally dismissed the likelihood of his legal tussle, which led to his earlier disqualification to contest the Bayelsa polls before he was reinstated by the Appeal Court. He argued that since he never stopped his campaigns during the period of the court proceedings, the legal distraction would not affect his chances.

“I just feel relieved because it was very confusing when the first judgment came. My confusion was because the judiciary had pronounced at the Supreme Court previously that I didn’t have locus standi to drag Douye Diri to court since I did not take part in the party primary.

“I began to wonder why somebody who did not participate in the primary that produced me or even a member of our party could challenge my primary and the court held that he was in order. It was a bit confusing. The judiciary has vindicated me and itself too.

“The PDP is afraid of this election because they have not done very well and they know that even from their campaigns. If you go to Bayelsa, it is obvious that the election has been won by the APC. What my deputy said was to let them know that we are aware that they are planning violence. We just want to notify them that we will return violence for violence. It is clear that it is not the APC that is planning violence but the PDP,” he said.

Similarly, the Imo State APC candidate, Uzodimma, on his part, equally used the opportunity to refute the claims that the molestation of the President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Joe Ajaero, under his watch, would affect him.

Uzodimma said: “People should be very careful because there was an attempt to mix up partisan politics or an attempt to blackmail my government, but I can tell you that my people are already aware of that.

“Of course, I am the chief security officer, and I have a responsibility to intervene. I don’t interfere with labour matters, but I have convinced my workers in Imo State to believe in me, and that trust is what opposition parties are trying to fight. But, I can assure you that Imo people have already made their decision. November 11 is around the corner. Come and observe the election. I am very confident I will emerge victorious at the polls.”

But, beyond the courageous assurances from the APC governorship candidates and the stakeholders, there has been orchestrated deployment of antics, strategies, and forces by the party’s candidates to ensure victories for themselves.

In Bayelsa State for example, the APC has applied both the carrot and stick approach. Apart from the mouth-watering campaign promises, as well as material and financial support given to the electorate by the candidate to woo Bayelsans, there is also an alleged use of subtle threats on the people, especially the trending warning from the deputy governorship candidate, Joshua Maciver.

He had told the APC supporters in the state during a campaign to drive anyone who misbehaves on Election Day into the sea to die. “Let us be prepared on November 11, don’t joke with anybody. If anyone misbehaves in Twon-Brass, chase am go enter the sea make him die. Una dey hear (drive them into the sea, let them die. Do you hear)?

“Chase am make him die (chase them, let them die). After all, he no go be the first person to die (after all, such a person won’t be the first to die). So, let us be prepared and let us show them that this time around when we take it, we are taking it for finals,” he submitted.

Ever since he made that slip, the state chapter of the APC and the candidates, have come under immense criticisms, with many Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) and the opposition parties demanding the disqualification of the APC from participating in the poll.

Ordinarily, the gaffe and the narrow escape from the legal challenge that sought to disqualify Sylva would have combined to count against the party and its candidates at the poll but they may not pose any threat, judging by the confidence from the former APC Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Yekeni Nabena.

The former party’s spokesperson told Daily Sun recently, while appraising his party’s chances of winning the election, that the odds were against the incumbent, Douye Diri for not performing well.

“Why I am not worried about the Bayelsa election is because the incumbent governor could not maximise the opportunity given to him in an election he did not win. He totally failed the people after God gave him the opportunity to prove himself.

“His greatest undoing was the exposure by former Governor Nyesom Wike over the volume of funds they received from the Federal Government. He got such money but there is no development in the state to show for it. To worsen his case, he lied that constructing one road in Bayelsa could build three bridges in Rivers State.

“He forgot that Rivers, Bayelsa, and Delta states have the same terrain and topology. If Wike could construct those flyovers, why should our governor continue to lie about the funds he got? The money would have turned around such a small state like Bayelsa.

“He has continued to hide under religion to deceive Bayelsans that we have a government of prosperity. But do you blame a governor whose passion is marrying more and more wives? He has no hiding place because he has nothing to show for his first tenure in office,” Nabena noted to hype APC’s chances of winning in Bayelsa.

The situation in Imo is even more delicate for the ruling party. The incumbent, Uzodimma, may have repeatedly assured and reassured that there is no candidate to challenge him, but in reality, it is obvious that the victory is not going to be a stroll in the park for him.

If he surmounts the daunting security challenges ravaging the state under his watch, what about the recent face-off with Labour leaders and even Labour Party candidate, Senator Athan Achonu? If Governor Uzodimma escapes the land mines from the enemy forces, what about the hostilities from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other party candidates?

But, in fairness to him, if campaign penetrations, reaching out to the grassroots to lobby for votes through conventional and unorthodox means are anything to go by, he is already coasting home to victory.

In fact, there is no doubt that Governor Uzodimma, an election master strategist, has perfected his political stratagies, including mobilising more than enough financial war chests, and doling out Federal Government-assisted palliatives to lure the electorate. Curiously, he has also allegedly bought up all the available hotel accommodations, according to reports. However, he still has negative forces like general acceptability from the electorate to contend with.

Little wonder former deputy governor of the state, Prince Eze Madumere, while accessing the chances of his party retaining the seat in a chat with Daily Sun recently listed voter apathy, the inconsistencies of the electoral commission, and the spate of insecurity in the state, as factors that might count against the governor.

His words: “One thing is sure, the Election Day will come and go like any other election in the past. However, I have my fear over the condition of our people, who are in the troubled areas in Ohaji-Egbema, Oguta, Oru East, Orsu, Okigwe zones, and some parts of Njaba LGA of the state.

“I also have the fear that there will be voter apathy except for political parties and leaders of thought, who go back to reassure our people. INEC is the problem. They say one thing and do another. I just hope that somebody will not dance on the graves of the innocent dead brothers and sisters, who were mistaken identities by writing results from those areas.

“Again, the institutions or the electoral umpire that will be involved should not ever scuttle the will of the people. It will be heart-breaking to have another electoral robber on the prowl. I believe the security agencies have the capacity to chase these people far away. Those are the fears I have,” he noted.

Prince Madumere equally enumerated the factors that will decide the outcome of the election, explaining that, “Imo election is unpredictable. Looking at the history book, there has never been any superpower in the Imo election since 1999 to the last election.

“For those of you in political science, journalism, and history, you should have been able to generalise that the battle is always open. In Imo State, it is neither for the rich and the poor nor for the strong but we can only wait for the outcome,” he noted.

The situation in Kogi looks even more elusive. Desperate to deliver Ododo, Governor Bello will have to prepare for a tough battle, emerging threats from the candidates of other political parties, the intense ethnic rivalry and the political supremacy battle between the Igala and Igbira, the negative signals of snatching senatorial ticket through court pronouncements from the ruling party, and more importantly, the disgruntled Kogi people complaining about his desperation to impose his cousin as his successor.

In the face of the foregoing factors, it might be easier, according to political analysts, for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for Ododo and Governor Bello to overcome the threats from heavyweight challengers like Muri Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and Senator Dino Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), among other opposition parties.

“The bad news for Ododo and Governor Bello is that most of the opposition candidates are people who knew his antics and strategies to win elections. If the security agencies can ensure a level playing ground, the APC will definitely struggle to win the election this weekend,” a Kogi-based journalist who spoke to the Daily Sun in confidence quipped.

However, regardless of the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates and the party in the states, the good thing is the confidence level of the APC national chairman, Ganduje.

Only recently, he reiterated the confidence of the party to emerge victorious in the states, stressing: “We have three off-season elections coming up in Kogi, Bayelsa and Imo states. We will also win these elections. We are happy with the development.”

In all these, the disposition and determination of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to organise a transparent, credible, free, and fair poll, in terms of ensuring reliable deployment of technologies like the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) to accredit voters and transmit the election results real-time, will be the major determinant for this weekend’s election.

“Yes, the parties are not only prepared but also talking tough, but INEC holds the ace, as to which party will emerge victorious. Beyond the electoral umpire, the security agencies providing a peaceful atmosphere will go a long way in deciding the outcome of the poll,” an APC chieftain noted in a chat with Daily Sun. (Daily Sun)

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