The Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority’s recent amendment to its regulations mandating domestic airlines to expand their fleets to a minimum of six aircraft by January 2025 requires deeper scrutiny. Nigeria currently has 23 registered domestic carriers, says NCAA, but only a few are flying regularly. Most are struggling to remain aloft. Nigeria’s aviation sector needs drastic reforms to tackle deep-rooted problems and stimulate a vibrant operating environment. Festus Keyamo, the Minister for Aviation, should vigorously drive that process.

The rule requires new entrant’s to start with at least six aircraft, and existing ones to raise their fleets to six, or merge with others to reach that number.

While the NCAA rule attempts to drive competition, improve capacity and efficiency, it merely scratches the surface. The problems besetting the sector are deeper, long-standing and daunting; they require extensive strategising, and root-and-branch reforms. President Bola Tinubu and Keyamo should initiate them.

A properly functioning market-led, private sector-dominated aviation sector does not need a regulator dictating fleet sizes for private businesses. Tinubu and Keyamo should single-mindedly pursue liberalisation, privatisation and concessions and unleash the sector’s enormous potential.

Experts have identified lack of a coherent air transport policy, bad management, decrepit infrastructure, lax security, corruption and political interference among factors crippling Nigeria’s aviation sector. Johannesburg-based Centurion Law Group identifies “institutional, structural and regulatory challenges” constraining it and discouraging investment.

Yet, the civil aviation industry is a critical player in the global economy. Among its uses, declared the OECD, “it reduces the cost of trade, and facilitates tourism and the smooth operations of supply chains across continents.” Invariably, being complementary and substitutable with other transportation modes, it promotes integration and rapid development domestically, and on a global scale.

The International Air Transport Organisation says that globally, the aviation industry transports one-third of the value of goods and services, generates $111 billion in tax revenues, contributes 4.1 per cent to GDP, and provides 87.7 million jobs.

Nigeria is missing out. The IATA estimates that aviation supports $63 billion in economic activity in Africa, and millions of jobs. South Africa accounts for over $12billion, 490,000 jobs and 3.5 per cent of the country’s GDP. In Egypt, aviation produces $7 billion in gross value added, supports 602,000 jobs, and adds 2.1 per cent to GDP.

Against this, Nigeria’s aviation industry’s gross value contribution is just $1.7 billion, and supports 241,000 jobs. It contributes a mere 0.4 per cent to GDP.

But its potential is huge. The government neither has the resources to upgrade infrastructure nor the discipline to drive massive, modern infrastructure projects. It should therefore privatise the international airports transparently and urgently to reputable international operators as many countries have done and reaped immense benefits. The opaque one undertaken in the twilight of the Muhammadu Buhari administration should be reviewed.

Problems of multiple taxes and charges, and remittance of revenue by airlines should be resolved. The regulatory agencies should be reformed, imbued with efficiency, merit-based appointments and promotions, and cleansed of corruption.

Despite charges rated as one of the world’s highest, Nigeria’s airports are disgraceful, discouraging investors and tourists. They are poorly maintained, while corruption and disorderliness reign.

Airline operators struggle to access foreign exchange for their operations. They struggle to adequately maintain their aircraft due to unavailability of spare parts and hangars. Scarcity of aviation fuel adds to costs. High debt profiles, low patronage and poor customer services frustrate stakeholders.

Privatisation is the way to go. In the UK, Global Infrastructure Partners, led by Nigerian-born Adebayo Ogunlesi, acquired London Gatwick Airport, and Edinburgh Airport, and secured a long-term lease on Teesside Airport. Infrastructure revitalisation, improved passenger experience and increased efficiency resulted. Spain, Qatar, and Singapore among others have also privatised unprofitable airports.

Tinubu and Keyamo should follow suit or like their predecessors, also fail woefully to revive the aviation sector.

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