National Missioner of Ansar-Ud-Deen Society of Nigeria, Abdur-Rahman Ahmad, who was part of a delegation that visited to the Republic of Niger following the coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, shares his assessment of the situation with DANIEL AYANTOYE

You recently visited the Niger Republic with some delegates. What is your assessment of the situation on the ground there?

We have read a lot about what was happening in the Niger Republic before our visit but when we got there, we found that the situation on the ground was different from what a section of the media was reporting. The capital, Niamey, appeared very calm and people were going about their normal business; there was no agitation. Some of the people were even on the streets to welcome us. Perhaps they had been told that a delegation of Islamic scholars from Nigeria would be visiting. We saw evidence of the effect of the sanction on the country by the ECOWAS in terms of a cut in power supply but other than that, everything seemed normal.

Our impression was that the ordinary person on the street seemed not bothered about a change in government. Although we were apprehensive, we didn’t know exactly what to meet but we arrived to a rousing welcome. It was a red carpet reception. A civilian minister was at the airport to receive us in the company of some of the other ministers and we eventually met the military Head of State and we had a very fruitful discussion. Our impression was that the government and the people were happy to see us. This was later confirmed by the military leader when he said our coming was like an answered prayer to them. Well, we didn’t tour the whole country and we didn’t take censors so we cannot be definitive, that was and is still our impression.

What prompted the visitation by the Islamic scholars?

Let me make this categorically clear. We are mediators and self-appointed. Self-appointed because as Islamic scholars, we know the effect of war. We have seen what is happening to Sudan. We saw what happened to Libya. We saw what happened to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen. At the end of the day, it is the ordinary people on the street who will bear the brunt of war. War is an ill wind that blows nobody any good. At the end of the day, even the worst wars will end in dialogue. We have officially fought two European civil wars, which were world wars, and they ended up on the negotiating table. So, war is avoidable and in most cases, war is unnecessary because at the end of the day, no matter the level of hostility, it will end at the negotiating table. Why must we cause untold hardship to people and the environment and why must we disturb their ways of life? In most cases, it is for reasons that are parochial and self-serving. People claim that it happens because of the people but it is these people that suffer at the end of the day.

Look at the situation in Libya, Southern Sudan, and DR Congo. See what became of them after the war. And of course, the precept of our religion is not for war. So, we met with the President of Nigeria to ask his permission to intervene to bring about a peaceful resolution and he graciously granted the permission. That is why I said we were self-appointed mediators, we were not constituted by the government.

You said any war on Niger is also a war on Nigeria. Why did you say so?

Yes, any war in Niger is also a war in Nigeria. Seven Nigerian states share a border with the Niger Republic. They are the same people, they speak the same language, have common ancestry, and similar culture and they are related in many ways. For instance, I would like to tell you that the wife of the new military leader in the Niger Republic is a Nigerian from Kebbi State. The people are basically the same; they speak the same Hausa that is spoken in northern Nigeria. In fact, there are some emirates in the Niger Republic whose emirs hold allegiance to emirs in Nigeria and all of them owe allegiance to the Sultan of Sokoto. We are basically the same people.

We must also remember that artificial borders were created by colonialists to separate people, but the people are the same. Also, as Islamic leaders, we have followers both in the Niger Republic and in many other West African countries, people who follow us, those who are our students, including some of the leaders, civilian and military. So we feel that we can leverage this influence to avert war so we don’t have a disaster. It is noteworthy that war is anti-tactical to the economic policy of the present administration and of course, the President himself has confirmed this.

How will a war in Niger Republic to restore democratic rule affect Nigeria?

War will drain Nigeria and will distract the administration. Already, we are fighting many wars in Nigeria. We don’t need to add another one. Nigerians are war-weary. We are fighting against poverty, corruption, banditry, hunger, and several other conventional and non-conventional wars. Nobody, I think, who wishes Nigeria well, will encourage that kind of war. Even the Economic Community of West African States sanctions will at the end of the day fall on Nigeria. Nigeria will foot the bill. What has been our gain with our intervention in ECOWAS? Look at how much Nigeria expended when South Africa was under an apatheid regime. What are we gaining from South Africa? We intervened in Liberia, Sierra Leone. What benefit did we derive that will make us want such a gamble at this point?

Now, everybody is considering diplomacy as, an alternative to war which as far as we are concerned, is better for this country. Of course, you know that our Christian brothers are also against war and the Christian Association of Nigeria has spoken about this. War does not discriminate, a bullet does not discriminate based on religion, ethnicity, or class. So that is the reason for our intervention and we hope and pray that it will be enough to avert the catastrophe that war will bring on the people of this country and sub-region particularly considering that the Sahel is one of the most difficult regions in the world. In this region, we fight insurgency, whether it is Senegal, Mali, Niger, or Chad; there is active insurgency going on in these regions, and we cannot afford to add another dimension to it.

The African Union also suspended Niger over the coup. What is your take on all the sanctions?

It is within the right of ECOWAS and the African Union to apply sanctions according to their charter and their assessment of the situation.

Do you think the AU and ECOWAS should lift the sanctions?

At the end of the day, if we look at it critically, sanctions will only hurt the man on the street and not the leaders. In fact, there were a lot of sanctions on Russia, they have not degraded their power to engage in war. You can sanction everything except energy because even the West is still reliant. For instance, despite the sanction on Niger that led to the cutting off of electricity, the elite will still use their generators but it is only the ordinary man that will be left in darkness. So who is the sanction affecting? The expectation is that when people are facing hardship, they will revolt but history has shown that this will not happen. Other than this happening, the people will feel that they are being punished unjustly and they will rescind those imposed sanctions on them.

Well, we are Ulama, Islamic scholars, and our role is to mediate and ensure that rather than the use of force, peaceful and alternative options should be explored. And so far, it is looking very promising. After all, if ECOWAS or AU decide on the military option, it will be a proxy war and an energy war. It will be because of the Atlantic trans-Saharan gas pipeline which is vital to the energy interest of the West. So why must we go to war because of other people’s interests? Why must we destroy our environment, our people, and our country so Europe and America can have energy? It doesn’t make any sense. That is why all people of goodwill must rise and support this administration and impress upon them that they must continue to pursue peaceful options for the resolution and restoration in line with the purpose of ECOWAS which is the restoration of democracy. I can assure you that the President, Bola Tinubu, is the only one who is holding back ECOWAS from exploring the military option. As I speak, at the level of ECOWAS, at the level of AU, a lot of contact has been made and in the next few weeks, some of these things will begin to manifest.

You recently said more bandits would relocate to Nigeria if Niger was attacked. Why do you think so?

Nigeria has the longest border. The Sahel region is a hot spot for banditry. And you know that our borders are very porous despite the measures put in place so far. For humanitarian reasons, cultural and ethnic reasons, if there is a problem in Niger Republic, many people will want to relocate to Nigeria to stay with their relatives in Nigeria. How do you distinguish genuine refugees from bandits? There is still smuggling of small arms across the porous borders. If we consider it carefully, we will know that a war will change the whole equation and bandits can take full advantage of these kinds of crises.

Some people blamed the coup on the absence of the dividends of democracy. Don’t you think Bazoum is to blame?

I am not in a position to say that or apportion blame. Remember that I said our role as mediators is to bring about a peaceful resolution on the matter. This is not the time to apportion blame or appraise. Our main interest for now is how we bring Nigeriens and the coup plotters to the same negotiating table with ECOWAS. Nobody should go to the negotiating table with fixed positions or mindset. It is a matter of concessions. For instance, the Nigerien military rulers said they would not extend their transitional rule beyond three years, ECOWAS has said they want to hold them to a definite timeline for the restoration of democratic rule. Now this is an opportunity for negotiation.

It is not our lot as Ulamas to do this kind of negotiation but we can help facilitate this by bringing both of them to the table so that they will negotiate. For instance, the Nigerian President, as the ECOWAS Chairman, has told us that they will only allow a maximum of six months of transition. Now this is an opening, an opportunity for negotiation which I believe the Nigeriens should also welcome and take advantage of. Negotiation is better, less costly financially, environmentally, and in terms of human suffering costs and we can still use this to achieve the same result. The most important thing as far as we are concerned is to avert war. At this point, war is not good for Nigeria, and West Africa and it is not good for the world.

During your meeting with the Nigerien military, what were some of the reasons they gave for the coup?

I deliberately did not go into that. Wherever there is a coup in the world, people will bring reasons. Usually, most of the reasons they provided are corruption, mass suffering, etc. Now, whether that is justified or not justified is beyond our mandate because we are not to judge. The mandate that we have given ourselves is to ensure that both sides are brought to the table and work out the terms of settlement. The most important goal for us is to avert war. We are not necessarily supporters of military coups nor do we support corruption in any form. We do not support misrule but we are dealing with the reality of the situation on the ground and we are working to prevent a degeneration, and it’s not more than that.

ECOWAS had directed the junta to release the deposed president, Bazoum, unconditionally. Why do you think the junta is still holding him captive?

We wouldn’t know; we asked them and they said it’s for security reasons. Hopefully, when they negotiate, ECOWAS can make that a condition. I believe the Nigerien counterpart will be reasonable enough because in a situation like this, everyone will want to bargain from a position of relative strength and maybe that will be a bargaining tool for them. I don’t know, but I believe that in negotiation, there are opportunities to avert war. Diplomacy would be the way out of war and that is what we are recommending to all concerned to explore.

From your assessment, do you think ousted President Bazoum’s life is not at risk?

We requested to see the ousted President but the military leaders were of the opinion that there were security concerns. We raised concerns about his safety, health, and welfare and the General Abdulsalam (Abubakar) delegation was able to see and visit the ousted leader but we were not able to see him.

It is concerning that anybody at all will be held in custody whether protective or punitive. Restricting anybody’s movement is enough reason for concern. But when we raised it, they debunked the claims that he was being held under inhuman conditions. They said he wasn’t imprisoned but under house arrest. We raised concerns about the electricity supply and initially, they said he was the one who asked ECOWAS to cut the public power supply to Niger but I think after our visit, they began to rethink. They have given him access to his doctor, but the fear everyone is having is that they should allow his son to go back to school. I believe this will be part of the ECOWAS terms when they meet eventually.

The three-year transition plan proposed by the junta was rejected by ECOWAS. What is the implication of that?

That is the reason for the negotiation. It is an opening for a diplomatic option. There is an opening to discuss to resolve the crisis. They have presented their terms, bring your terms and both of you meet midway and this is what is called compromise. You don’t do everything as you want and the other party will make concessions and compromise and life continues. This is what life is all about. You cannot be my way or the highway. After all, wars have been fought on frivolous allegations. The alliance forces invaded Iraq on the charge that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction and after the whole of Iraq had been destroyed, no weapon of mass destruction was found. Would it not have been better to have explored diplomatic options? Lives were lost, properties were destroyed, and Iraq is never the same again. It will take the next 100 years for Iraq to get back and maybe 100 years for Libya to get back.

The ox that Is beating the war drum will only feed on the carcass of the dead and the majority of the dead will be innocent people who are only seeking the existence of the sidelines. So, what has the war gained? Nothing. For those who are arms dealers who are trying to sell arms, as you can see it is already playing out and we will have another Ukraine if we are not careful and we don’t need it. Russia is already starting to flex muscle. The West is interested, they no longer get gas supply from Ukraine, and the pipeline has been blown up. The trans-Atlantic gas pipeline, Chevron, and Americans have invested billions of dollars on it, and Chad, invariably Nigeria will become a centre of war and we will be drafted into a proxy war that is very unnecessary. Africans, particularly Nigeria must wake up. This is why we must continue to pray for our President that Allah should guide him to the decision that is going to bring amicable and diplomatic resolution to this conflict.

Some African coup plotters are known to have exceeded the years of transition they promised. What is the assurance that those in the Niger Republic will not do the same?

We have gone past that now, ECOWAS has rejected the junta’s three-year plan, and they have made a counteroffer. You know initially ECOWAS said they would invade the Niger Republic to restore the ousted President but I don’t think anybody is saying that now. Now, ECOWAS is asking for a shorter definite period of transition. I think nobody can be that ignorant because public opinion and the world will be against such a person who will violate an agreement that is reached and of course, you know that we are also involved in mediating these agreements. I believe as religious leaders we have such huge moral authority to prevail on whoever sticks to the agreement. I believe that they will be faithful.

A video that went viral when the coup occurred showed Nigeriens eulogising Russia. Is that something that should be of concern to African leaders?

It Is concerning, whether it is Russia, America, or Britain. Africans should be left alone to handle their internal affairs and gun battle diplomacy is getting outdated; the world has not benefited from it. We can do without war. We can resolve our differences. We will continue to have differences and we have very skillful diplomats who can always use their skills to prevent the outbreak of military hostility in nations. That’s what happens in the West which is why between China and the US, they will threaten but they will not go to war. That is why between the US and North Korea, there will be sanctions, but there will be no war. At the end of the day, there will be a peaceful resolution. Africa is much more than deserving of this kind of democracy. We don’t want war. We are not supporters of war. Nigeria is not in support of war, we are neither in support of coup nor maladministration. We are for good governance, freedom, and peace.

Insecurity has been an issue for a long time now. Why do you think it has become difficult to resolve?

Obviously, some people are benefiting from it and you discover that where situations like this become difficult, it is no longer non-state actors. When you see non-state actors surviving for this long and perpetrating this kind of atrocities, you must know that they have the backing of some state actors, perhaps outside of the shores of Nigeria.

What do you mean by this, how are they benefitting?

It is known that no human being will engage in a venture where he is not benefitting one way or the other. For instance, in the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria, people think it is religious, but no, it is simply economics. And those who know are aware that they are backed by certain foreign governments. Wherever you see insurgency, there is deep-rooted economic interest involved. Otherwise, in poorer countries, you don’t see things like these. You will know that there is something to take, it is about mineral deposits, economic benefits, and some people using these people (insurgents) to wage wars. The scope of this interview is not enough, otherwise I can cite several instances in Africa and Latin America. Do you think that the problem in Zamfara (State) is because the people are troublesome? No. There is economic interest; there is gold that has been illegally mined. If the Niger Delta is in turmoil, do you think it is because the people there are not peace-loving? There are huge interests involved.

From what we have seen with the body language of the Nigerian President and Chairman of ECOWAS, he prefers a peaceful diplomatic resolution to this conflict. He does not want war. However, he continues to say the military option is still on the table. It is like a stick and carrot-approach. I hope and pray that it does not get to the situation of war. I believe that the Nigeriens will also keep faith and be reasonable. Nobody wants to be isolated. I believe that in the next few weeks to come, there will be a big diplomatic approach and war will be averted. (Sunday PUNCH)

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