The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has warned that 4.2 million Nigerians are at the risk of displacement as the annual rainy season intensifies this year. The prediction is part of the IOM 2023 Nigeria Response Review Disaster Preparedness Plan issued in response to the country’s growing threat of climate induced disasters. According to the report, an estimated $20 million will be needed to secure the most vulnerable populations against the inevitable floods through shelter and relocation efforts from May to October, adding: “The funds would be used for immediate rescue missions and longer-term resettlement and rehabilitation initiatives.”

The number of people projected for impact is deeply concerning because they represent mostly women and children that will be uprooted forcibly from the communities and lifestyle they were used to. These events may spiral down to sheer pain and misery, and at a very high cost, according to IOM. Earlier figures released by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) revealed that the devastating flood of 2022, the worst after that of 2012, affected 3.2 million people, including 1.9 million children. The 2012 floods which affected 30 states began in early July 2012. It killed 363 people and displaced over 2.1 million people by 5th November 2012, according to the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). Estimated damage and losses were put at N2.6 trillion.

The Executive Director of Health of Mother Earth Foundation (HOMEF), Nnimmo Bassey said he is not optimistic the dire predictions would prod the government to prepare and prevent death and destruction of property. “A look at how past floods have been handled in Nigeria shows clearly that we are not short of predictions and forecasting of impending disasters,” he noted. “Our governments and responsible agencies have consistently fallen short of the expectations of citizenry who have been routinely abandoned to battle the floods.”

Climate scientists project that by 2050, there would be up to a billion climate refugees across the world, particularly from developing/poor countries, including Nigeria. Our country is already ranked as very susceptible to the impacts of climate change by several vulnerability indexes produced by global research organisations. The federal government has been urged to be mindful of Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is required of every nation to combat climate change and limit the earth to 1.5 degrees Celsius by cubbing emissions.

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement and the achievement of its long-term goals. NDCs embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. The Paris Agreement (Article 4, paragraph 2) requires each party to prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.

Last March, NEMA’s Director-General, Mustapha Ahmed said Nigeria would witness severe flooding this year as predicted by seasonal climate predictions and annual flood outlooks by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA). Clement Nze, the Director-General of NIHSA, warned that 178 local governments in 32 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) would experience severe flooding in 2023.

Floods, according to Bassey, threaten lives, infrastructure and livelihoods and no investment to build resilience is too much. “This is the time for investment in planning of communities and towns in flood prone areas. The need for drainage planning of our cities and provision of adequate drainage systems cannot be overemphasized.”

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