The battle for Premier League survival continues to provide drama and unpredictability – but there are signs the relegation picture is finally becoming a bit clearer.

At the start of April, there were only four points separating Crystal Palace in 12^th and bottom-of-the-table Southampton – the least amount of points between the teams 12^th and 20^th at that stage of the season in Premier League history.

Now, less than a month on, there have been big changes with Bournemouth, Wolves, Crystal Palace and West Ham making a strong dash for survival.

The gap now between 12^th-placed Crystal Palace and bottom side Saints is 13 points, but there is still only five points between the bottom five. With six games to go, could we be looking at the three to go from that five? A group that includes Leeds, Leicester and Everton.

Before some crucial midweek matches, including Leeds v Leicester and Southampton v Bournemouth, data specialists Nielsen’s Gracenote has studied the stats and judged each team’s chances of being relegated based on their remaining fixtures, giving them a percentage chance of survival.

Gracenote says 39 points will be enough to guarantee Premier League survival, with more than a 90% chance of staying up with 36 points, but BBC Sport wants to know how you think the fight to avoid the drop will go.

See what percentage chance the teams have of surviving relegation and give your thoughts with our ranked list.

Gracenote’s chance of relegation: 0%

Crystal Palace had not won in the league in 2023, leading to the dismissal of manager Patrick Vieira with 75-year-old former Eagles boss Roy Hodgson given the task of keeping them in the division.

Hodgson has worked wonders, guiding the Eagles to 10 points in four games and near safety.

Still to play: 25 Apr Wolves (a), 29 Apr West Ham (h), 6 May Tottenham (a), 13 May Bournemouth (h), 20 May Fulham (a), 28 May Nottingham Forest (h)

Gracenote fact: Crystal Palace have the two most fouled players in this season’s Premier League. Wilfried Zaha has been fouled on 71 occasions, one more than his team-mate Jordan Ayew (70).

Roy Hodgson is unbeaten since returning as Crystal Palace manager in March

West Ham United (13^th, 34pts)

Gracenote’s chance of relegation: 0.4%

West Ham have finished sixth and seventh in the past two seasons but have found themselves fighting for their top-flight survival.

They have won three of their five league matches in April, losing only to Newcastle United. This has helped them to 1.5 points per match in their past 10, equalling Bournemouth as the best of the relegation candidates in the past 10 matches.

Still to play: 26 Apr Liverpool (h), 29 Apr Crystal Palace (a), 3 May Manchester City (a), 7 May Manchester United (h), 14 May Brentford (a), 21 May Leeds (h), 28 May Leicester (a)

Gracenote fact: Seven of the Premier League’s current top eight teams are the only clubs to have had more goal attempts this season than West Ham’s 404. The Hammers are the least accurate of all Premier League clubs though, with only 29% of their attempts on target.

Wolves (14^th, 34pts)

Gracenote’s chance of relegation: 1%

Wolves are on their third manager of the season after Bruno Lage was sacked in October before a lengthy search for his full-time successor saw Steve Davis take charge for seven Premier League matches, with them only securing four points in that time.

Former Spain manager Julen Lopetegui has led them to seven league wins, including home victories over both Liverpool and Tottenham to take them out of the bottom three.

Still to play: 25 Apr Crystal Palace (h), 29 Apr Brighton (a), 6 May Aston Villa (h), 13 May Manchester United (a), 20 May Everton (h), 28 May Arsenal (a)

Gracenote fact: Wolves have scored the fewest goals of all teams in the Premier League from set-pieces this season. They have just six goals – two from penalties, two from free-kicks and two from corners. Brentford have scored the most goals from set-pieces with 23 in total.

Bournemouth (15^th, 33pts)

Gracenote’s chance of relegation: 7%

Bournemouth were the first top-flight team to sack their manager this season with Scott Parker, who got them promotion last season, dismissed after criticising the club’s summer recruitment following a Premier League record-equalling 9-0 loss at Liverpool in August.

Gary O’Neil has been their manager since, firstly on an interim basis before getting the job permanently in November and the Cherries did not win any of their first seven league matches following the World Cup.

Bournemouth’s past last 10 matches though have produced five wins with four of those coming in the past seven fixtures. This is their best form of the season and has taken them from more than a 50% chance of relegation at the beginning of April to the brink of safety now.

Still to play: 27 Apr Southampton (a), 30 Apr Leeds (h), 6 May Chelsea (h), 13 May Crystal Palace (a), 20 May Manchester United (h), 28 May Everton (a)

Gracenote fact: Bournemouth have conceded 17 goals from corners in this season’s Premier League, nearly twice as many as the next worst team at defending corners, Chelsea (nine). On average, Bournemouth concede a goal from every 13 corners they face.

Leeds United (16^th, 29pts)

Gracenote’s chance of relegation: 41%

Jesse Marsch was sacked as manager in February with the club on a seven-game winless run but, after an encouraging start, things have got tough for new boss Javi Gracia.

Despite the home thrashings by Crystal Palace and Liverpool, Leeds United’s past 10-match form is slightly better than their season as a whole. Their next two matches, against Leicester City and Bournemouth, will be key to their survival prospects.

After those games, three of the last four matches for Leeds United are against teams in the top seven.

Still to play: 25 Apr Leicester (h), 30 Apr Bournemouth (a), 6 May Manchester City (a), 13 May Newcastle (h), 21 May West Ham (a), 28 May Tottenham (h)

Gracenote fact: Leeds United are the only one of the relegation candidates to have a player who is in the top-10 Premier League goalscorers this season. Rodrigo has scored 11 goals and is joint 10^th on the top scorers list. The other 12 players with at least 11 goals this season all play for teams in the top half of the table.

Leeds won 2-1 at Brentford on the last day of the 2021-22 season to stay in the Premier League and relegate Burnley

Leicester City (17^th, 28pts)

Gracenote’s chance of relegation: 33%

Leicester City came eighth last season and reached the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League, but made an awful start to this campaign as they only picked up one point in their first seven matches.

Manager Brendan Rodgers has been replaced by Dean Smith until the end of the season and he masterminded Saturday’s victory against Wolves that ended a nine-match winless run and moved them out of the drop zone.

They have taken just four points from their past 10 matches, the second-worst record of the relegation candidates, after Nottingham Forest. Leicester face Leeds United and Everton in their next two matches. Wins against both may be enough to save them.

Still to play: 25 Apr Leeds (a), 1 May Everton (h), 8 May Fulham (a), 15 May Liverpool (h), 22 May Newcastle (a), 28 May West Ham (h)

Gracenote fact: Only the big six teams, plus Brighton, have attempted more passes this season than Leicester City.

Leicester play at home to West Ham on the final day, with the sides currently 17^th and 13^th respectively in the Premier League

Everton (18^th, 28pts)

Gracenote’s chance of relegation: 51%

Everton’s results had improved after Sean Dyche became manager at the end of January following the sacking of Frank Lampard – but not enough to steer them clear of trouble.

They beat Premier League leaders Arsenal in Dyche’s first game as boss and have followed that with wins over Leeds and Brentford, as well as draws at Nottingham Forest and Chelsea.

However, the Toffees, who have played in the top flight of English football in every season since 1954-55, have hit a wall and have only picked up two points in the past four matches.

A repeat of Everton's point per match from their past 10 fixtures may be enough to keep them in the Premier League. Half of their remaining fixtures are against the bottom seven teams with the other three against teams currently in the top eight.

Still to play: 27 Apr Newcastle (h), 1 May Leicester (a), 8 May Brighton (a), 14 May Manchester City (h), 20 May Wolves (a), 28 May Bournemouth (h)

Gracenote fact: Everton have the lowest percentage of successful shots in the Premier League. They have scored from just 6.6% of their attempts, less than half the success rate of the best teams (Manchester City 15.7%, Arsenal 14.4% and Brentford 14.1%).

Nottingham Forest (19^th, 27pts)

Gracenote’s chance of relegation: 78%

Nottingham Forest are in their first Premier League season since 1998-99 after winning promotion from the Championship last season and Steve Cooper has signed 30 players in a bid to keep them at the top level.

They are the only team in the relegation battle without a win in their past 10 Premier League matches. Forest’s last victory was a 1-0 win against Leeds United on 5 February.

Four of Forest’s remaining six matches are against teams in the Premier League’s top-11. In 18 matches this season against these teams, Forest have taken just eight points from 54, winning just once (1-0 against Liverpool).

Still to play: 26 Apr Brighton (h), 29 Apr Brentford (a), 8 May Southampton (h), 13 May Chelsea (a), 20 May Arsenal (h), 28 May Crystal Palace (a)

Gracenote fact: Nottingham Forest have used 33 different players in the Premier League this season, more than any other team.

Southampton (20^th, 24pts)

Gracenote’s chance of relegation: 89%

Southampton are another side on their third manager of the season after they sacked Ralph Hasenhuttl in November. He was replaced by Nathan Jones, but he only lasted eight Premier League matches and picked up one win before he was also dismissed.

Ruben Selles, assistant manager under Hasenhuttl, was next in line but they have now gone seven matches without a win.

Friday’s draw at Arsenal was their only point in their past four matches and looks like being too little, too late. Four of Southampton’s remaining six matches are against teams from the top half.

Still to play: 27 Apr Bournemouth (h), 30 Apr Newcastle (a), 8 May Nottingham Forest (a), 13 May Fulham (h), 21 May Brighton (a), 28 May Liverpool (h).

Gracenote fact: Southampton have kept fewer clean sheets this season than any other team in the Premier League. Their total of four clean sheets is one fewer than Leeds United.

Chance of avoiding relegation this season with different points totals

Points Chance of safety

38 or more 100%

37 99%

36 94%

35 82%

34 54%

33 26%

32 7%

31 2%

30 or fewer 0%

Gracenote, Euro Club Index (BBC)

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