As May 3 for the 2023 census draws closer, uncertainty is hovering on the exercise as new challenges continue to prop up.

Many stakeholders are raising questions on the readiness of the federal government to deliver a successful census at the twilight of the President Muhammadu Buhari administration.

According to reports the census, which is to hold 17 years after it was last conducted in the country, was initially fixed for March 29, but opposition against the date soon manifested as the period fell within Ramadan fasting.

And following the postponement of the gubernatorial election held on March 18, the government announced a shift of the census date to May 3 to insulate the exercise from the fallout of the elections.

But three weeks to the new date of the exercise, the National Population Commission (NPC), again announced the postponement of the training of ad-hoc staff that would carry out field work.

A statement by the commission’s Director of Public Affairs, Dr Isiaka Yahaya, noted that the local government level training of supervisors and enumerators scheduled for April 13, 2023 was postponed “due to some emerging issues,” saying a new date would be communicated to the public in due course.

While he did not state specific reasons for the shift or provide the new date, there has been speculation on how ready the country is to hold the census despite the long wait.

Similarly, some observers have raised eyebrows on the census because government is seeking N372billion to complete the exercise, after it had spent N291.5bn.

With the census conducted at the tail end of the Buhari administration, the acceptability of the result by the president-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was another issue raised, as they said he was not sufficiently consulted to accept something he disowned in the past as governor of Lagos State.

Server was compromised – Official claimed

A video making the rounds on WhatsApp has showed an NPC official explaining to potential ad hoc staff members why the training was postponed.

He said the NPC server had been hacked and there was no way any progress could be made because some people were already in charge of it.

The NPC, which had recruited over 700,000 staff to be used for the exercise, said the census would be done using digital technology.

The chairman of the NPC, Nasir Isa Kwarra, had on different fora assured that the 2023 census was aimed at producing an inclusive and user-friendly data for developmental planning purposes.

In the two-minute video, an instructor, who Daily Trust Saturday confirmed was a staff of the commission, was seen telling a crowd who had come for the training in Niger State that it was postponed due some technical challenges that arose because the commission’s server was hacked.

The unidentified staff said, “The problem we are having is that our website has been hacked. Automatically, someone has started creating results. So, we do not have any option other than to postpone this training because if we go by it we will not get what we want.

“Since yesterday, the management has been holding a meeting on the matter, and we have been communicating with them at the headquarters. So, the work can’t be done like this. It is not possible for us. If we do that, we are not going to get the result, and that is exactly what happened with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) when they postponed their elections.”

“This is a work that if done, would take another 10 years before thinking of another one. This is for development and planning in the country. Definitely, we can’t continue with the job, that is the present information.

“We have to wait until we get another date or the server is changed and we are able to have a better confirmation that our server will not be touched. For this reason, our chairman is leaving Nigeria today and going to tell the United Nations what is happening so that they will assist us in controlling the server.

“We are sorry for what happened. It is sad that while you will be enumerating, someone has done your own enumeration and is sending the result before you send your own. It is a very serious problem and Nigerians will not take that. The exercise has been postponed, and we promise that whatever action is proposed we will inform you.”

The man is ‘drunk’ – NPC

However, when Dr Yahaya was contacted, he denied that NPC’s server was hacked, saying that it has different layers of protection to prevent access by unauthorised persons.

He also described the staff as drunk since he was not stationed in the headquarters to have the knowledge of what is happening in the commission.

“He appears to be drunk. And this is someone that is not in the headquarters to be familiar with what is happening. He is a controller in a local government area in Niger State. I don’t know what happened to him, but nothing like that happened. What server are they hacking? We have a known security around the server, it is in various layers and not easy to hack. What are they going to hack? No data there.”

He added that the man was facing a disciplinary action because he did not have the authority or knowledge to speak on behalf of the commission.

He disclosed that the reason for the postponement was because, “We are trying to put our house in order to ensure that the trainees are available and properly posted; and some of the logistics will be in place. This is not a serious or indefinite postponement.”

‘Funding won’t be problem for census’

With the federal government looking for donations to complete the shortfall of financing the census, the NPC assured that the challenge would not be a reason for the exercise not to take place.

The Minister of State for Finance, Budget and National Planning, Clem Agba, had in March said the census would gulp N869bn.

Agba, during a high-level engagement with the private sector and other international donors, revealed that N626b would be spent before and during the exercise, while N243bn would be spent on post census.

He said the government had so far spent N291.5bn, making it 46 per cent of total funding for the exercise.

While saying that N327.2bn was required to complete the exercise, he added that government funding had been from the budget and federation account.

He gave the breakdown of how the remaining N327.2bn would be spent as the acquisition of 405,000 additional local content tablets and accessories, which would cost N60.75bn; training of 885,000 persons for building numbering and household listing of all buildings and households in the country for seven days at an average cost of N12,410 per person per day (N76.8bn); building numbering and household listing of all buildings and households in the country for 35 days at an average cost of N12,018 per person per day at the cost of N531bn.

Others are training of 885,000 persons for enumeration of all listed persons during the building numbering and household listing in the entire country for five days at an average cost of N12, 982 per person per day (N57.4bn); enumeration of all persons listed during the building numbering and household listing in the entire country for five days at an average cost of N12,018 per person per day, which will cost N53.1bn.

Also, data analysis, dissemination, production of monographs, thematic maps, population atlas for dissemination in all states and the 774 local government areas,to the tune of N53.1bn; internet and connectivity for data transmission by census functionaries at N2.7bn, and conduct of post enumeration survey in sampled EAS to match the household data for validation at N180bn.

Yahaya said the federal government was playing its role to ensure that adequate financing is met.

“They are on it; and the money will come. The way the government operates is not that they will put it in your pocket, it is on a need basis, but we have been assured that finance will not be a problem,” he said.

‘Buck stops at Tinubu’s table’

There is a haze of uncertainty if the census would be completed during the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari.

If the exercise succeeds, it will be one his parting legacies for the country, which has been deprived of accurate data on its population for effective developmental policies and planning. But if the responsibility falls on his successor, the president-elect Ahmed Tinubu, some sources said it would take a miracle for the document to have a smooth sail.

“Remember that for some obvious reasons, Tinubu refused to accept the outcome of the 2006 census when he was the governor of Lagos State.

“Beyond the economics around census, there are political and other considerations. No leader would like to start his administration with something that would most likely be contested in court,” one of our sources said.

Another source said, “It is evident that the NPC is in a tight corner. Of course, there is wisdom in doing the census, but it would have been better if done immediately after Buhari won his second term so that he would shoulder the responsibility of the litigations that would trail the exercise,” he said.

When contacted yesterday, Tinubu’s media aide, Tunde Rahman, said the question on whether his principal would accept the census when he comes on board was difficult to answer as the census has not been conducted.

“What you are asking me is difficult because the census has not been conducted. So it has to be done first,” he said.

Although he said he would get back to Daily Trust Saturday for more clarification through text message later in the day, he did not do so at the time of filing this report.

Commenting on this, Dr Yahaya noted that it was not yet certain whether Tinubu would be the one to approve the result because it would be ready before the end of the administration of President Buhari.

“But in the eventuality that we are unable to make the result ready until the new administration, we are sure of the process we have adopted for this census, which is very transparent, scientific and verifiable. So we do not expect the president-elect, when sworn in, to have any issue with the census outcome because we have been very rigorous in all the arrangements put in place,” he said.

Asked if the census would hold despite all the challenges on ground, he said, “We have a date; and there is no reason for us to believe that it will not hold. We are working round the clock to ensure that everything is perfect.”

Media reports say that some stakeholders have started calling for the postponement of the exercise.

On Thursday, the Benue State governor, Samuel Ortom, asked the federal government to suspend the conduct of the census until all internally displaced persons are returned to their ancestral homes.

He said this when he received a delegation from the Middle Belt Forum, led by Dr Bitrus Pogu at the Benue People’s House, Makurdi.

The governor said that close to two million indigenes of Benue State were in displaced persons camps and would not be counted because they need to be in their localities before they can participate in the exercise.

Ortom said what the federal government must do before carrying out the exercise was to ensure adequate security for the displaced persons in Benue and other places in the country to enable them go back to their homes to be counted. (Daily Trust)

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