With the National Assembly results declared so far, the race for the leadership of the Senate may have begun. The names of Ahmed Lawan, Godswill Akpabio, Orji Uzor Kalu, Adams Oshiomhole, Barau Jibrin and Sani Musa are some that have been bandied as possible candidates when the 10th National Assembly is inaugurated on June 13.

The National Assembly election threw up a lot of surprises. Parties least expected to produce lawmakers now have substantial seats at the Red Chamber. The presence of so many minority parties has ended the ambition of some ranking lawmakers who had their eyes on the seat of the Senate president. Though the ruling party will still have a majority in the parliament and will be able to determine who occupies the two key offices of presiding over the 10th Senate, it will have to ally with the opposition lawmakers to secure the majority of votes needed to pass critical laws. The formal inauguration of the 10th Senate is expected to take place on Tuesday, June 13, 2023, after the due proclamation of the 10th National Assembly by the incoming president.

To clinch the seats, alignments and realignments are already being made by would-be contestants as a way of getting an edge over other contenders by senators-elect believed to be interested in occupying the number one seat in the 10th Senate.

Already, according to the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu, the number of senators-elect during the National Assembly election and their political parties include the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) with 56 senators, the Peoples Democratic Party (32), Labour Party (7), the New Nigeria Peoples Party (2), Social Democratic Party (2), the All Progressives Grand Alliance (1) and the Young Progressives Party (1). The number of seats declared by INEC so far is 101. Eight seats are yet to be filled.

From the above, it is clear that the APC won more than half of the 109 seats and will by tradition produce the two presiding officers – the Senate President and the Deputy Senate President – of the 10th Senate.

However, the contestation for the Senate’s presidency among the APC senators-elect that are ranking, as well as first timers that may want to take a shot at the seat promises to be both tough and interesting. The political clout, personality and antecedents of senators-elect already being rumoured as having the ambition to lead the Senate would be on display by the time the race finally kicks off.

It must be noted that any of the contenders endorsed by the APC after due consideration for zoning would emerge victorious.

Some of the senators-elect that may be vying for the position of Senate president include incumbent Senate President Ahmad Lawan, Chief Whip of the Senate and ex-governor of Abia State, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, former Senate Minority Leader in the 8th Senate and ex-minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Senator Godswill Akpabio, ex-National Chairman of the APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, incumbent chairman of Senate Committee on Appropriation, Senator Barau Jibrin and a one time candidate for the post of national chairman of the APC, Senator Mohammed Sani Musa (APC – Niger East).

Of all these eminently qualified lawmakers and those yet to join the race, it is apparent that the contest would both be tough and unpredictable. However, some of the determining factors for any of the aspirants to emerge Senate president will largely depend on if the APC would zone the position of Senate president and that of the Deputy Senate president to any of the geopolitical zones. Now that the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Vice President-elect, Senator Kashim Shettima are from the Southwest and Northeast geopolitical zones respectively, it is expected, but not mandatory that the position of Senate president, Deputy Senate president, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives would be evenly spread among the remaining four geopolitical zones of the country, namely: Northwest, North-Central, Southeast and South-south.

The leadership of the APC may decide to anoint or impose any of the aspirants for the position being sought but they may equally choose to be neutral and allow senators-elect to choose who will lead them. This is often not the case, as the party would want to have a grip on those at the helm of affairs in both chambers of the National Assembly. This is basically to ensure that the incoming president can seamlessly work with the leadership of both chambers in formulating policies and getting critical executive bills and requests through the National Assembly without difficulty. The APC could also choose to throw the contest open among its senators-elect and allow the most popular to emerge. The APC is not new to the idea of endorsing aspirants for positions of leadership in the party. It could be recalled that the party had endorsed all members of the Senator Abdullahi Adamu-led National Working Committee to emerge as consensus candidates, while it threw open its presidential ticket for a contest by most of the candidates that applied. It is not yet known if the next Senate president and deputy Senate president will be imposed by the party by throwing its weight behind a particular candidate or democratically elected by allowing all APC senators-elect that would signify their interest to vie for the position or contest for the office as prescribed in the Senate Standing Orders 2015 (as amended).

According to provisions of the Senate Standing Orders 2015, the Senate president and his deputy would be elected by a simple majority. Any senator, irrespective of party affiliation, can nominate or be nominated as the would-be Senate president or deputy Senate president. There is also no limit to the number of senators to be so nominated. The provisions say that voting shall be either through electronic or secret ballot, while the clerk of the National Assembly shall serve as the returning officer.

Order 2(1-2) of the Senate Standing Orders 2015 (as amended) reads: “On the first sitting of the new Senate, pursuant to the proclamation of the first sitting by the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, senators-elect shall assemble at the time and place so appointed.”

Order 3(1) says: “A senator-elect may before taking the oath as prescribed in the Seventh Schedule to the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, take part in the election of the president and deputy president of the Senate.

“(2) Nomination of senators to serve as presiding officers and appointments of principal officers and other officers of the Senate or on any parliamentary delegations shall be in accordance with the ranking of senators.

“In determining ranking the following order shall apply – (i) Senators returning based on the number of times re-elected. (ii) Senators who had been members of the House of Representatives (iii) Senators elected as senators for the first time.”

In addition, Order 3 subsection 3(a), 3(b), 3e (i – ii), 3(h) and 3(i) say: “The election of the Senate president shall be conducted in the following manner: (a) A senator-elect addressing the clerk, shall propose another senator-elect to the Senate to be president of the Senate and shall move that such senator-elect ‘do take the chair of the Senate as president of the Senate’; (b) a senator-elect so nominated and seconded shall inform the Senate whether he or she accepts the nomination. He may then proceed to address the Senate; (e) when two or more senators-elect are nominated and seconded as Senate president, the election shall be conducted as follows:

“(i) by electronic voting; or (ii) voting by secret ballot which shall be conducted by the clerks-at-table using the list of the senators-elect of the Senate who shall each be given a ballot paper to cast his vote, with the proposers and seconder as Teller; (ii) The Clerk of the Senate shall submit the results of the voting to the clerk of the National Assembly who shall then declare the senator-elect with the highest number of votes as the Senate president-elect…; (h) during the election of a Senate president there shall be no debate and no question of privilege may be raised; (i) all senators-elect are entitled to participate in the voting for Senate president and deputy Senate president.”

Some of the senators are believed to be gearing up to contest for the position of Senate president and deputy Senate president and their chances of winning or not winning the seat are as follows:

Ahmad Lawan:

Lawan has his first degree in Geography and master’s degree in Remote Sensing from Ahmadu Bello University and a doctorate in Remote Sensing/GIS from Cranfield University in 1990 and 1996 respectively.

He has been in the National Assembly since 1999. He spent three terms in the House of Representatives and would resume his 5th term in the Senate upon the inauguration of the 10th National Assembly on June 13, 2023. He is seen as the most experienced among those jostling for the position of Senate president. He is equally a scholar who has served as majority leader in the Senate. He has equally presided over critical standing committees and ad-hoc committees in both chambers. Lawan can retain his seat as Senate president in the 10th National Assembly if the leadership of the APC with the majority in the upper chamber so desires. Otherwise, they may advise him to either shelve his ambition or test his popularity during voting just like he did during the presidential primary of the APC where he emerged in fourth place.

While his colleagues from the returning APC senators-elect may be disposed to back his ambition, the votes would surely be divided if other ranking APC senators-elect from the Ninth Senate like Barau Jibrin (APC Kano North and Sani Musa (APC – Niger East) decide to throw their hats into the ring for the Senate’s top job as being speculated. If that happens, he would need to rely on votes from opposition senators like those of the PDP, the LP, the NNPP, the SDP, the APGA and the YPP which have a total of 45 senators-elect so far. The emergence of the Vice President-elect, Senator Kashim Shettima who is from Borno State in the Northeast region of the country may dampen the chances of Lawan should the APC decide to zone the position to another zone of the country. Already the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is from Lagos State in the Southwest geopolitical zone. Besides, only about 28 of the senators in the present Ninth Senate got re-elected. Be that as it may, Lawan may need additional votes from first-time APC senators-elect and those of the opposition to retain his position.

Godswill Akpabio:

Akpabio is a lawyer by training and a former governor of Akwa Ibom State. He was the Minority Leader during the 8th Senate. He is the immediate past Minister of Niger Delta Affairs and one of the 2023 presidential candidates of the All Progressives Congress who stepped down for the President-elect, Tinubu.

He has the requisite qualification and experience to be the next Senate president. But his fate lies in the hands of the party, which may zone the Senate presidency to any region of its choice. If it is zoned to the South-south, he may likely pick it but if it is zoned to any other geopolitical zone, then it would be out of his grip. However, Akpabio has a way of springing surprises if the race is thrown open by the party. He may get the backing of 13 ex-governors and two ex-deputy governors that would be in the 10th Senate.

From the results declared by INEC so far, 11 former governors, two incumbent governors, a former deputy governor and one serving deputy governor, are among the senators-elect.

The former governors are Adams Oshiomhole (Edo), Orji Uzor Kalu (Abia), Godswill Akpabio (Akwa Ibom), Seriake Dickson (Bayelsa), Dave Umahi (Ebonyi), Danjuma Goje (Gombe), Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo (Gombe), Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano), Adamu Aliero (Kebbi), Gbenga Daniel (Ogun), Ibrahim Gaidam (Yobe), Idiat Adebule (Lagos, Deputy) and Ipalibo Banigo (Rivers, Deputy).

Orji Kalu:

Kalu is a former governor of Abia State. He is a media entrepreneur among other businesses and one of the chieftains of the APC from the Southeast. He is the Chief Whip of the 9th Senate. He had declined to contest for the APC presidential ticket during the party’s primary because he said the position was not zoned to the Southeast. He later supported the presidential ambition of Senate President Ahmad Lawan. But after the primary, he and Lawan threw their weight behind Tinubu. If the APC leadership decides to zone the position to the Southeast, Kalu may well be favoured to clinch the ticket. Otherwise, he may have to fight his way through should the race be thrown open. At the moment, only six APC senators-elect (himself inclusive) have emerged from the Southeast. He will need to seek support from other zones of the country to realise this ambition.

Adams Oshiomhole:

Oshiomhole, a former governor of Edo State, is a first-time senator-elect and represent Edo North Senatorial District. As the immediate past National Chairman of the APC and a former president of the Nigeria Labour Congress, he is a household name in the APC fold and across Nigeria. Even though he lacks the required legislative experience and is least ranking among lawmakers believed to be interested in the post of Senate President, he will be contending with Akpabio, who is also from the South-south zone should the post be ceded to the region. He may also benefit from votes from ex-governors and deputy governors who have made it to the 10th National Assembly. Besides, he may also be able to get the votes of Labour Party senators-elect who are presently seven in number. His long-term political association with the President-elect may also confer some advantage on him. His major drawback would be his lack of ranking and the feeling in some quarters that he appears to always want to have his way, the view of the majority notwithstanding. Some of those opposed to his ambition have argued that this personality trait may not be in tandem with the democratic spirit prevalent in the hallowed chambers where the minority are expected to have their say and the majority their way.

Barau Jibrin:

Jibrin is the chairman of the Committee on Appropriation in the current Senate. He represents Kano North. Even though he has not formally declared his intention to seek the number one job in the Senate, he is believed to be interested in the position. He is the only senator of the APC stock from Kano State returning to the 10th National Assembly. He is both a ranking and experienced as a legislator. He will be favoured if the party zones the position to the Northwest and would equally prove his mettle should the race be thrown open. He may enjoy the votes of opposition senators from the Northwest, the Northeast and the North-Central.

Mohammed Sani Musa:

Senator Sani Musa represents Niger East and he is currently the chairman of the Senate Services Committee, – which makes him highly influential among senators. He is popularly referred to as 313. He is ranking and has the legislative experience to pilot the affairs of the 10th Senate if he can convince his colleagues to entrust him with the office of Senate president. Known to be highly cerebral and easygoing, he can pull surprises should the race be thrown open. He will equally benefit if the position is zoned to the North-Central. He had contested for the position of national chairman of the APC but had to shelve his ambition when Senator Abdullahi Adamu emerged as the consensus candidate of the party. He is yet to officially signify interest. (The Nation)

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