•Peter Mba 2nd, Frank Nweke Jnr 3rd, Uche Nnaji 4th

Afri Forecasts, a scientific research and opinion polling agency, on Tuesday published the results of its opinion poll on the likely winner of Saturday’s governorship election in Enugu State, with Barr. Chijioke Edeoga, of the Labour Party (LP), emerging as the winner.

The result, which is published on the website of the group, www.afriforecasts.com, combined both telephone and online polling methods to get the responses of their respondents totalling 8,242 persons.

According to the report, Mr. Peter Mba of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was the second preferred candidate, while Frank Nweke Jnr of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), came third, and Chief Uche Nnaji of the All Progressives Congress (APC), came fourth.

According to Afri Forecasts, “From our survey, it is evident that the general mood of Enugu State is favourably disposed to a leadership headed by the Labour Party.

“This opinion is informed by the results of both the telephone interviews and the online polls that gave the candidate of the Labour Party a commanding lead over the other candidates.

“While some of the reasons for this preference are anchored on the Obidient Movement and the bandwagon effect that it has created, a large percentage of the potential voters believe in the capacity of the Labour Party candidate to deliver on the job.”

In presenting the report, the pollsters, who said they combined telephone calls and online polling methods to obtain the results gave the number of respondents interviewed via the telephone as 389, and 7,853 online voters.

They also stated: “Afri Forecasts employs Formal Quantitative methods in all its opinion polls. This method is a more systematic way of ascertaining public opinion, mainly because it involves the use of scholars who understand their proper – and improper – uses and who are less likely than politicians or other non-scholars to misuse them or misinterpret them as standing for mass public opinion when they do not. Quantitative methods involve numbers – usually statistics – and most credible public researches are conducted quantitatively.

“Precisely, our survey methodology involved two survey methods:

i. Random Telephone Interviews:

Question: We asked the interviewees on phone “Who amongst the following will you vote for in the March, 2023 gubernatorial election in Enugu”?

“The candidates and parties were given to the interviewees as options. With the greatest respect to all the other fourteen (14) political parties and their candidates, it was only practical that we prune the pool, from which the interviewees were expected to choose from, to four (4) in order not to make it unwieldy.

“The candidates are: Uche Nnaji, All Progressives Congress (APC); Frank Nweke Jr, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); Peter Mba, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Chijioke Edeoga, Labour Party (LP).”

Afri Forecasts also ascribed 95% confidence level on the polling methodology they adopted while carrying out the polls, with 5% error margin as well.

Presenting details of the result, Afri Forecasts presented the results of their telephone poll according to the senatorial zones.

They added: “Afri Forecasts employed Formal Quantitative methods in all its opinion polls.

“This method is a more systematic way of ascertaining public opinion, mainly because it involves the use of scholars who understand their proper – and improper – uses and who are less likely than politicians or other non-scholars to misuse them or misinterpret them as standing for mass public opinion when they do not.

“Quantitative methods involve numbers – usually statistics – and most credible public researches are conducted quantitatively.”

Based on the findings obtained via telephone, of the 122 persons interviewed from Enugu-West Senatorial zone, 53 (43.44%) said they would be voting for Chijioke Edeoga; 47 (38.52%) chose Peter Mba; 19 respondents (15.57%) voted for Frank Nweke Jr, while 3 (2.45%) chose Uche Nnaji as their preferred choices.

In Enugu-East, 135 persons were interviewed out of which 54 (40%) persons said they would be voting for Peter Mba; 51 (37.77%) for Chijioke Edeoga; 21 15.55% for Frank Nweke Jr, while 9 (6.66%) chose Uche Nnaji.

In Enugu North, 88 (66.66%) of the 132 respondents said they would be voting for Chijioke Edeoga; 35 (26.15%) chose Peter Mba of the PDP; 2 (1.51%) voted for Frank Nweke Jr, while Uche Nnaji got no support.

Afri Forecasts also said that in the online polls, 7,853 persons participated.

The result shows that Chijioke Edeoga (LP) polled 59.35%; Peter Mba (PDP) 25.49%; Frank Nweke Jnr (APGA) 10.0% and Uche Nnaji (APC), 5.12%.

According to the polling agency, some of the online voters dropped comments on why they made their choices.

They stated that 15% of the comments attributable to Edeoga’s supporters said they prefer him based on the need to “retire” the PDP from the politics of Enugu, they believe has underperformed in the 24 years it has been on the saddle in the state.

Another 21% of Edeoga said “the candidates of the PDP and APGA were products of the Ebeano, a political family they claimed was a violent family that should not be given another opportunity to come back to power.

“27% of those who commented in support of Chijioke Edeoga based their support on competence, citing his achievements as a federal lawmaker and as the SA to the President of Nigeria on National Assembly matters wherein they also claimed he was instrumental to the signing of the Freedom of Information Bill by the Jonathan administration”.

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