As Nigerians brace for the 2023 general elections that kick off with the bellwether presidential polls on Saturday, national and global attention is riveted on the key actors whose actions or missteps will determine success or failure. For the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), the Independent National Electoral Commission, and its Chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, the police, the military and every other civilian and paramilitary security agencies, history beckons. The handling and outcomes of the elections will determine the continued viability and future trajectory of the union. They must not fail.

Tension pervades the country as well as economic hardship, insecurity, and atrocious governance at all levels, while the people harbour a general revulsion at the lousy politicians and their avaricious, violent behaviour.

A casual visitor would be forgiven an initial impression that the country is preparing for war. Apart from massive police deployment everywhere, the military is out in force, and so are battalions of paramilitary personnel. The language of politicians is often martial and panic buying and stocking of groceries and fuel by many homes would suggest to a first-time visitor, a population mobilising for war!

But this is common fare; the country’s awful political class, aided by national institutions and personnel that everywhere else serve as guardrails and delivery vehicles for smooth and credible elections, has turned elections in Nigeria into ferocious warfare, where in the place of civility and well-articulated programmes, violent rhetoric, guns, machetes, explosives and axes conflate with corrupt complicity by officials and security personnel in manipulating and rigging elections.

The country has survived six general elections since the return to civil rule in 1999: but just barely. Elections, like the political party selection processes that precede them, have remained stubbornly fractious, violent, tension-soaked, and persistently prone to manipulation. The outcomes do not always reflect the popular will, but are often the imposition of party chiefs and sometimes, the decisions of the courts that increasingly and dismayingly, arise from technicalities rather than justice or a sincere effectuation of the people’s mandate.

Free and fair elections underpin successful democracies; elections that are manipulated, violence-driven and shambolicare isomorphic illusions that merely ape democracy,but disenfranchise the majority. Around the world, even tyrants often organise electoral charades with pre-determined outcomes. Nigeria’s bane is anchored on the desperation, unscrupulousness and impunity of politicians and their collaborating state and non-state actors. Together, they have over the years, tarnished the electoral process and dismayed Nigerians and liberals around the world.

But Nigerians have no choice but to get it right and entrench the democratic ethos through transparent, credible elections. USAID says, “A country cannot be truly democratic until its citizens have the opportunity to choose their representatives through elections that are free and fair.”

In its final report on the 2019 elections, the European Union Election Observer Mission said they were marred by “severe operational and transparency shortcomings, electoral security problems, and low turnout.” These and other logistical and technical hitches and violence forced a last-minute postponement that vexed voters.Similar problems had forced postponement in previous general elections; in 2011, by six weeks specifically to secure areas under Islamic terrorist occupation in the North-East region.

Glitches in technology deployed, and the inability to deliver voting materials to all parts of the country also prompted week-long shifts in 2015 and 2019.

All these challenges are present today, some even more so than others. For instance, while terrorist insurgency was the main security challenge in previous polling and restricted to the North-East, insecurity has spread. Terrorists, bandits, and kidnappers have established in parts of the North-West, the North-Central and the South-East. The gunmen who have unleashed an orgy of killing, arson and kidnapping in the South-East have carried out 27 attacks on INEC facilities since December and have sworn to prevent elections in the region. The police and state governments have not yet been able to stop their frequent illegal sit-at-home orders that cripple social and economic activities.

INEC recently announced that 240 polling stations spread across 28 states were prevented by insecurity from having registered voters. The governors of Kaduna, Niger, Zamfara, Katsina and Sokoto have separately admitted that bandits and terrorists occupy some local government areas in their respective states. Travel is hazardous in parts of the country.

INEC’s task and its logistics challenges are daunting. It needs to cover a country that is 923,768 square kilometres in size, and a population of 216 million. There are 176,846 polling stations across the country, 8,809 registration areas across 774 LGAs with diverse physical terrain, including barely accessible hilly and riverine topography. Data from the World Bank indicates that Nigeria’s accredited voter population of 93.46 million is more than the entire population of several West African countries put together.

Deploying about 1.26 million personnel, mostly ad hoc staff, Yakubu says INEC would also need 100,000 vehicles and 4,200 boats to move its personnel and materials to the various polling stations.

Over the years, these challenges have tended to bring INEC short. Security lapses, collusion and weak law enforcement have combined with this to lower the integrity of Nigeria’s elections. Despite massive security deployment, violence, ballot box snatching, and other malpractices still mar voting. These elections should be different. The Inspector-General of Police, Usman Baba, said the Force would deploy 310,973 of his 371,000 officers nationwide; the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps, 102,000, and the Federal Road Safety Corps 21,783 officers and 769 patrol vehicles. The Defence Headquarters is similarly deploying troops, as are the Nigerian Customs Service and the Nigerian Immigration Service that is also closing all land borders during the voting and collation of results.

Despite past record and current anxiety, hope is not lost. Incrementally, the quality of the elections has improved, though not radically. The introduction of technology tools since 2011 has helped, from the smart card reader, to BVAS. Despite legislative mischief and judicial ambushes through devious technicalities, INEC has upped its game in IT. Limited use of technology helped deliver better elections in 2015.

These elections must succeed. In this, Buhari, INEC, Yakubu the police and its IG, Baba, and other security agencies have a great role to play. They should serve patriotically and write their names in gold.

Yakubu faces his greatest test in his illustrious career as student union leader, social activist, academic, and election administrator. He should be resolute, efficient, and firm, and resist the tricks and intimidation of politicians and public office holders. The integrity, and calmness under pressure of his immediate predecessor, Attahiru Jega, helped in salvaging the 2015 elections. He should do even better. He should remove corrupt officials and safeguard the impartiality of the commission. He should not allow resident electoral commissioners to enmesh INEC in arrangements with partisan transport union factions as some are already doing.

The heads of the police, NSCDC, Army, Air Force, Navy, FRSC, NIS and NCS should similarly ensure that they and their personnel are professional and non-partisan. Their officers should shun the corrupting influence of politicians and public officials, including state governors that are notorious for deploying public funds to sway elections.Baba should not let Nigerians down.

All the non-state actors threatening the polls should be pre-empted and neutralised. There should be zero-tolerance for election riggers. Those politicians and highly placed officials that move around during elections to subvert the polling should be professionally contained and restricted in line with the curfews.

As for Buhari, his legacy is at stake. Adjudged low on other performance indices, he has a final opportunity to deliver radical qualitative change on his watch. He should take charge of coordinating the security agencies. Reverting to his accustomed practice of giving orders and turning aside will ruin his legacy beyond repair. Under him, officials fail repeatedly to carry out his orders; he needs therefore to adopt a hands-on approach and ensure that the federal agencies involved in the elections act professionally, efficiently and transparently.

A leader must be known for something positive; Olusegun Obasanjo was admitted into the club of international statesmen for handing over power to civilians as military head of state in 1979; Abdulsalami Abubakar similarly gained respect by midwifing the Fourth Republic; Goodluck Jonathan salvaged his lack-lustre reputation by conceding defeat to Buhari in 2015, over-ruling the hawks in his party. Buhari should not disappoint; he should lend the full weight of his office to ensuring that the relevant institutions deliver clean, free and credible elections.

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