Osun State will go to polls on Saturday to elect a governor that will steer the affairs of the state for the next four years. Fifteen political parties are fielding candidates to vie for the position. But, only five of them are in serious contention for the seat. Among the leading contenders are the incumbent, Governor Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP, Dr Akin Ogunbiyi of the Accord Party, former deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, Lasun Yusuf of the Labour Party (LP) and Goke Omigbodun of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

But, two of the candidates, Governor Oyetola and Senator Adeleke appear to be the front runners. The old foes are set for a rematch; they faced each other as the two main contenders in the last governorship election in 2018 and the former triumphed after supplementary elections in some polling units where the contest did not hold on the D-day. The electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the election inconclusive, despite the fact that Adeleke polled 254,698 votes against Oyetola’s 254,345 votes because the number of votes cancelled in units where violence was recorded, (3,498) was higher than the gap of 353 votes that separated the PDP candidate from the APC candidate.

The electoral commission had to organise supplementary elections in the polling units where violence prevented it from holding it on schedule. At the end of the day, Oyetola emerged the winner, after he polled 255,505 votes against Adeleke’s 255,023. The then-candidate of the SDP, Senator Iyiola Omisore who came third with 128,049 votes played a decisive role in Oyetola’s victory because the supplementary elections took place at polling units within areas where he had the upper hand. Thus, the APC wooed him and he appealed to his supporters to back the ruling party in the supplementary poll.

The two old foes are strategising in their respective strongholds to win massively so as to give them an edge against each other. The two parties have been plotting to edge each other out so that they can win the election. Money will be a major determinant of who will win the election. Party manifestos and other campaign strategies will also enhance the chances of the winner. For the APC, the party is building on the successes it has recorded in the last three and half years. It is also promising to make adjustments and corrections where it has not performed up to expectations. Part of the local government areas where the party cannot afford to take chances in Ede North and Ede South where the PDP performed well during the last election. The opposition party polled 35,438 votes, against APC’s 11,537.

The APC, it is said, performed woefully in many local governments during the last governorship election because of protest votes spurred by some policies introduced by the then Governor Rauf Aregbesola, who is currently the Minister of Interior. Key among the reasons was Aregbesola’s inability to pay salaries for some categories of workers and entitlements of some pensioners. As a result of these, the APC lost woefully to the PDP in strategic local government areas like Ifelodun where Oyetola got 9882 votes, against Adeleke’s 12,269. Isokan, Irewole, Ilesha West, Obokun and Orolu. The ruling party has had to review some of the hardline policies that made it unpopular. It is not leaving anything to chance to record a landslide victory this time around.

Oyetola’s strength:

In the last three and half years, the Oyetola administration has addressed the issues that led to protest votes against the ruling party during the last governorship election in 2018. Some policies introduced by Aregbesola like a single uniform for every school, school merger, non-appointment of permanent secretary for ministries, huge debt profile, non-remittance of contributory pension, payment of modulated salary to some category of workers and wranglings within the APC, the block votes in Ede and other local governments that PDP won a landslide in 2018.

Unlike the last governorship election, Oyetola enjoys the power of incumbency and this is expected to boost his chances of winning. He would also be supported by the APC presidential candidate in next year’s general election, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. The former Lagos State governor would deploy his entire arsenal to help Oyetola, who is a very close associate, win the election.

All these made some of his supporters predict a landslide victory for him at the poll this Saturday because all the issues used by the PDP to campaign against the APC during the last election have been resolved.

Weaknesses:

Oyetola is still battling with some of the problems created by his predecessor, especially none payment of over 20 months of salary arrears of workers and pensioners; this has become a campaign issue, as the PDP candidate has been harping on it to solicit votes from civil servants.

Despite that the fact that he has banished the ghost of half salaries or non-payment of salaries since he took over the reins of power, the billions of naira still being owed by the government remain one of the major reasons that could sway civil servants to vote for the any the opposition parties.

Intra-party wrangling could also affect his votes because of the exit of former deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, Lasun Yusuf who is now contesting on the platform of the Labour Party.

Besides, many of the loyalists of Aregbesola have not shown any indication that they would vote for the APC candidate. Such loyalists, under the auspices of a political association, The Osun Progressives (TOP), chaired by Lowo Adebiyi, are mere onlookers in this year’s electioneering campaign. This is because Aregbesola is yet to declare his support for Oyetola who was his chief of staff for the eight years he spent as Osun State governor. In fact, one of the leaders of the Adebiyi-led TOP, Kolapo Alimi recently defected to the PDP and was promptly appointed as the Deputy Director-General of the Adeleke Campaign Council. Alimi was a commissioner under the Aregbesola administration.

This will further strengthen the PDP in Irepodun Local Government Area because Alimi, an Erin-Osun-born politician will flex his muscle to replicate the 2018 precedent in the area where the PDP polled over 8000 votes to beat the APC which struggled to garner 6000 votes.

The Adeleke challenge:

Adeleke will enjoy the goodwill of his late brother and former governor, Isiaka Adeleke, as well as that of his immediate elder brother, Deji Adeleke, who is the father of popular artiste, Davido.

There is no gaining saying the fact that Adeleke has street credibility, but it doesn’t translate into voting during the election because most of those that are chorusing his name “Imole” may not vote on Election Day. On the streets, he has managed to engage his supporters with a sense of bravado. This led to him making a statement that later backfired against him and his party.

Adeleke won about 10 local government areas during 2018, with Ede South and Ede North as his major stronghold. This time around, he is trying to extend his stronghold to 10 local government areas across the Osun West senatorial district, otherwise known as the Ife/Ijesha zone and some parts in Osun Central.

Strength:

A lot is being done by the PDP to ensure that the party carries the day on Saturday. They struggled to settle and resolve the crisis between the factions of Prince Dotun Babayemi who contested the party ticket with Adeleke. Babayemi is one of the big politicians within the PDP fold and he has pitched his tent with Adeleke by mobilizing support for the party. He has also commenced a door-to-door campaign for his party to ensure that Adeleke wins the governorship election.

Adeleke is banking on compensation votes from the electorate. This is premised on the claim that his mandate was stolen in 2018 when INEC ordered supplementary elections that gave Oyetola an edge to win the poll.

He will again ride on the goodwill of his late elder brother, the deep pocket of his elder brother, Dr Deji Adeleke who is a business mogul, as well as his nephew, Davido’s support. Davido has constantly influenced youths to vote for his uncle.

The PDP candidate is capitalizing on the salaries arrears owed workers and pensioners by the APC-led government which Oyetola is struggling to pay. He has also embarked on a campaign of calumny against Oyetola who is seeking re-election, saying the APC candidate will stop paying salary if he wins the election like his predecessor, Aregbesola, did in his second term.

Adeleke has the confidence that civil servants and pensioners will vote for him massively, as he has been promising to pay the entire backlog owed by the APC government. He also expects to get votes from Osun West senatorial district, especially those local government areas he won during the 2017 by-election and 2018 governorship poll. He enjoys the support of the district, based on their agenda for Osun West to produce the governor.

With all these, the APC should expect stiff competition; in spite of the fact that the ruling has the much-acclaimed federal might behind it.

Weakness:

Just like the APC, the PDP is also polarised and this may prove costly. Dr Ogunbiyi left the PDP with his supporters before the party’s recent governorship primary. Today, he is the flagbearer of the Accord Party. This development would undermine the chances of the opposition party, as some of its members would switch allegiance to the Accord Party; from the PDP.

Ogunbiyi is not the only member that bears animosity against Adeleke; some members of the PDP Board of Trustees like Shuib Oyedokun, Senator Olu-Alabi and many others are not happy with the candidacy of Adeleke. In 2018 when he was in the party, he refused to work for Adeleke to protest the alleged rigging of the primary by the party leadership.

The Accord Party left the PDP which will affect the vote the party will get as some of his supports within the PDP fold will vote for the Accord Party, going a long way to spoil the party’s vote.

Former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola was booed by Adeleke’s supporters during a peace talk a few months ago. This made PDP members in Okuku withdraw their support for the party’s candidate because of the insult hauled at Oyinlola.

The APC will focus on Ede to ensure that Adeleke does receive the kind of massive endorsement he got in the two local governments during the last governorship election in 2018. (The Nation)

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