“The best-laid plans of mice and men, often go awry.” — Robert Burns (To a Mouse)

Ahead of the All Progressive Congress (APC) presidential primaries, presidential aspirant and national leader of the party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while meeting with leaders and delegates of the APC in Ogun state, made some illuminating assertions that surely must have emanated from an overflowing deep well of disillusionment.

The man has been pushed! For a political potentate of his stature, who, like men of his ilk, know where a lot of bodies are buried (literarily), and in abiding faith to the "sub culture" of their class, go to their graves with such secrets – to make such "clarifications", and undoubtedly send some unambiguous messages, like he did in Ogun – the man has truly been pushed!

Unlike Gaius Julius Caesar, Dictator of Rome, who raised men like Brutus to high stations and fell to their stilettos, disregarding tell-tale signs of dark plots – Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has taken heed of his "traitorous looming shadows" and will not have anyone plunging terminal "political stilettos', into him in a state of docility.

Indeed, after three tries at the number one seat in the land, history will record that President Muhammadu Buhari sobbed publicly and apparently despondent, vowed, he was done with trying. Bola Tinubu, stated the obvious, but went much further.

He elucidated on the primary role(one many commentaries have already hazarded) he played in Buhari actualizing his quest to bestride the nation's highest office. To quote him; " he led the war" that culminated in Buhari becoming president.

He also touched on how he "picked" Prof. Yemi Osinbajo to become vice president of Nigeria (again, commentaries have wholly reasonably surmised that was the case, not withstanding the efforts of present day revisionist’s).

Governor Dapo Abiodun of Ogun state, will not be the first to be enabled to the office of Governor by Bola Tinubu, and I am sure, will not be the last. While some of those Tinubu have assisted to that exalted office (past and present), acknowledge his help and are reciprocative, some, ala, Brutus, have their daggers drawn out and are willing to do him harm.

When in 2016, Nigerians witnessed the first rebellious outburst of first lady, Aisha Buhari, who lamented the marginalization of those who "worked" (commentaries, figured she was chiefly referring to Tinubu) to get her spouse to Aso Rock – she was given short shrift and told to look to the "other room" – it would have taken some serious divining to see that her outrage was the precursor in the series of "butterfly effects" that would lead to Tinubu's Ogun thundering and may ultimately lead to the APC losing the presidency in 2023.

The butterfly effect, is the idea that small, seemingly trivial events eventually result in something with much larger consequences.

Like him or not, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a political heavy lifter. Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Wazirin Adamawa, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, is a political heavy lifter. Their species within the single culture Nigerian political space are few and far between. Great men and woman in their own rights – but no single aspirant for president, North or South, in the APC comes close to that description!

President Buhari is a heavy lifter but will not be on the ballot and there are present and historical precedents to show that Buhari only "carries" himself assuredly in elections he directly participates in. Any averagely keen political observer, would have taken note that the talakawa (Buhari's voting constituency) are not just ardent voters but endowed with a certain political sophistication uniquely their own.

Absent an “Aminu Kano”, northern plebs, like their southern counterparts, have had to make do with "shallower" alternatives – but only so much so. Buhari's choices and anointed have been resoundingly electorally rejected in the past in his home state and across the north. In the present, members of his family, aides and associates have almost uniformly been denied tickets to fly APC flags. Buhari, can only support, but no aspirant can reliably ride his wave to the villa lest he crash and burn!

The APC, like the PDP, prior to the 2015 elections, suffers and will lumber into the 2023 elections under the weighty baggage of incumbent misgovernance. The APC no longer has the PDP to point to as the "bogeyman", and indeed their deficit of trust is worse than that the PDP bore in 2015. Only a heavy lifter, seen as uniquely his own man, and not a "stooge", will stand a chance in what will be a "hell of a fight". The APC has only one!

And so, come the 6th-8th of June 2022, if the APC, through the instrumentality of it's higher command foists any of it's lightweights as it's presidential candidate, then Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who, "time and chance", have forever seemingly never aligned for – can be blessedly assured that at no other time in his presidential quest has the omens seemed more auspicious.

In U.S military terms, Broken Arrow, refers to an accident that involves nuclear weapons or nuclear weapons components, but does not create the risk of nuclear war. Nucflash, on the other hand, refers to, a possible nuclear detonation or other serious incident that may lead to war.

It is on the leadership of the APC, whether the outbursts of Bola Tinubu in Ogun state, will one day be classified as a "Broken Arrow" event for the party, which will mean that they allow a free and credible contestation at the primaries – or the harbinger to a “Nucflash”.

•Victor Ikhatalor twits @MyTribeNigeria; Email: kingjvic7@gmail.com

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