FOR the umpteenth year, only the politicians, their families, hangers-on and favoured contractors will be celebrating the 23rd anniversary of the transition from military to civilian rule. Across the country and beyond, the overwhelming majority of Nigerians are dismayed, angry and utterly frustrated by the failure of the trappings of democracy to deliver the good life. Misery and poverty abound; millions are jobless, basic social services are broken or in short supply. The entire country is on edge. Instead of clinking champagne glasses and making their usual repetitive, insincere homilies, the political leaders should soberly re-strategise and resolve to alter Nigeria’s trajectory of mass poverty.

Ushered in on the promise of liberty and prosperity in 1999, Nigerians nursed great hopes that the Fourth Republic would help to unleash the country’s enormous natural and human potential and deliver comfortable human development indices. Those hopes have been brutally dashed.

The evidence is everywhere. By 2019, the country had dropped to 161st out of 189 countries ranked on the United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Index. Measured on three “basic dimensions of human development” – a long and healthy life, access to knowledge and a decent standard of living – Nigeria falls short. These include life expectancy, literacy levels and per capita income calculated on Purchasing Power Parity basis. Its continental rivals, South Africa and Egypt, ranked 114th and 116th respectively.

Every new international ranking underlines the mess. In Hanke’s Annual Misery Index 2021, an international economic study using inflation, lending rate, unemployment figures, and GDP growth as parameters, it dropped from 15th, to the 11th ‘most miserable’ country in the world. While other emerging economies were alleviating poverty – Brazil moved 20 million persons out of poverty in eight years – Nigeria plunged deeper into it. Whereas its poverty rate was just 52 percent in 1999, by 2018, it displaced India as the world’s “extreme poverty” capital. In March, the World Bank raised its projection of 90.1 million poor in the country by 2022 to 95 million by year-end.

From 10.5 million, UNICEF has reported an increase in the number of children of school age but not attending school at 13.2 million, to retain its position as the global capital for out-of- school children. Some pundits said this figure had likely risen to about 16.5 million as a result of the unprecedented insecurity around the country. In the 2018 ranking of female literacy in the 15-24 years age bracket, it ranked 137th of the 157 countries surveyed based on statistics provided by UNESCO. Among other undesirable firsts, under the World Bank SDG tracking reports, it has the world’s largest population of people that lack access to electricity. Some 52 percent of the population lack access to basic drinking water sources, according to USAID. Insecurity, featuring terrorism, kidnappings, and gang violence, has reached failed-state proportions.

It should not have been so. For one, democracy is acknowledged by experts as an accelerator of growth and development. A study published in the Journal of Political Economy of the University of Chicago, concludes that democracy promotes growth and that its positive effect is “significant and sizable.” They asserted, “A country that transitions from non-democracy to democracy achieves about 20 percent higher GDP per capita in the next 25 years than a country that remains a non-democracy.”

But the results here have been mixed and skewed against progress. While GDP per capita rose from $583 in 2001 to $2,083 by 2020, growing at 7.9 percent annually, said Knoema, a global data firm, purchasing power has in reality decreased, with cash value wiped out by inflation that hit 16.82 percent in April.

An import-dependent country, the crash in the naira exchange rate from N91 to US$1 in 1999 to an official rate of N415.72 to $1, and over N600 to $1 at the more accessible parallel market today, has been disastrous. Apart from inflation, unemployment, barely 5.0 percent in 2000, has hit 33.3 percent, the world’s third highest. Over 23 million persons are jobless or under-employed, with the youth accounting for the much higher percentage. Tertiary institutions are frequently shuttered and hospitals emptied as a result of strikes. The education and health sectors and facilities are in a shambles. Infrastructure provision has been neglected.

Undeniably, some progress has been made. Over 150 state-owned enterprises have been privatised, according to the Bureau of Public Enterprises, freeing the treasury of huge waste. A debt buy-back deal in 2005-2006 also freed the country of a three decades-old debt burden that had risen to $30 billion.

The liberalisation of the telecoms sector in 2001 delivered 195.5 million active telephone lines by 2022 compared to less than 500,000 in 40 years prior to that time; it attracted private investment of over $70 billion to date and created thousands of jobs. A programme to boost rice production and conserve funds spent on its import has succeeded in raising output to 8.17 million tonnes by 2020, compared to 388,000 tonnes in 1971. Banking and financial services have expanded and become sophisticated. The pension sector has witnessed some positive reforms.

But the woes are overwhelming. To chart a new, more productive course, the leaders should address what went wrong. A major factor has been poor, incompetent and corrupt leadership. Those who have taken charge since 1999 have lacked vision, commitment and the political will to do the right things.

Low-hanging fruits like liberalising the economy, privatisation of the four loss-making refineries, ports, airports and the Ajaokuta Steel Complex, and the railways have been ignored. Unprecedented earnings from crude oil and gas have been frittered and embezzled. Lip service to the diversification of exports and revenues abound, concrete action to actualise them are absent, or ruined by inconsistency, maladministration, cronyism and corruption.

Poverty and underinvestment are guaranteed by the failure to revamp the power sector; installed generating power rose from 2,700 megawatts in 1999 to 12,522MW by 2020, but only a maximum of just over 4,000MW is available through the transmission and distribution networks. The elaborate power reform plan was wrecked by the fraud-driven asset sales of 2013 that gifted the 11 distribution and six generating companies to misfits. It has been a disaster.

Leaders of the federal and state governments must concentrate on selfless service delivery. Everywhere, successful governments are measured by the number of jobs created under their watch, investments attracted, the number and quality of schools, clinics and hospitals, crime control and HDI. Most important determinants are reduction in unemployment and in poverty.

Privatisation and liberalisation are essential. Urgently, the archaic and inhibitive Nigeria Railway Act 1955 should be repealed and the ports, airports concessioned, and Ajaokuta privatised. There should be a drastic move to achieve a private sector-led economy and massive infrastructure provision and upgrade.

The faulty foundation of the centralising federation that weakens the 36 states has to change. Immediately, the states should design and implement economic programmes and run as self-sufficient, self-reliant economic units. Lives and property must be protected.

To get the right leadership, Nigerians should register and vote, and take an active interest in those who lead them. It has been 23 years of ruin, waste and poverty, all Nigerians should resolve to change that narrative and build a virile, prosperous country.

Update news