The succession battle between governors and major stakeholders in their states has intensified as the ruling party, All Progressives Congress(APC) and the main opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) hold their governorship and House of Assembly primaries this week.

While that of the PDP will hold on May 25, the APC has rescheduled its governorship primary for May 27.

Power brokers in the two major parties will this week go for broke as they battle to outwit each other in the selection of their governorship candidates.

In some states, the sitting governors have anointed their likely successors while in others, the race is still open to all the aspirants. From one state to the other, the battle for succession is raging.

Kano: It’s grudge war

The possible successor in the battle for who succeeds the present Governor of Kano State, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje in 2023 will begin to unravel this week . Excitement, intrigues, betrayal, alignment and even defection among others are some of the highlights of this political frenzy.

Unlike in the past, when the race was essentially a tug of war between the two leading political parties, APC and PDP, the present contest has a new entrant, New Nigerian Peoples Party(NNPP) led by Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and strengthened by the recent defection of Senator Ibrahim Shekarau to its platform.

But just like in the past, the 2023 poll would be a continuation of the grudge- war between Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the two indefatigable giants of modern Kano.

It is an open secret that both men had sworn to politically undo each other with either of them pledging to retire the other from politics. Even at the best of times and in the bliss of friendship, the two gladiators have subtly battled each other over the control of the state, either by presenting themselves in the ring or by nurturing and nominating their trusted proxies to fight on.

Analysts believe that what is emerging as the final list for the position of the governor is nothing but the godsons and anointed proxies of the two strongest political forces in the state.

From the trenches of the APC is the Nasiru Gawana as the governorship aspirant and Murtala Sule Garo as his running mate. They were unveiled to the members of the party at a recent stakeholders meeting held at the Government House, Kano.

The two gladiators have a rich political history, especially under the present political dispensation. Gawanu and Garo, it is not forgotten, were prime actors in the famous controversy at Gawuna ward that stalled the elections. This impasse eventually led to the suspension of the process and formed the basis for INECs declaration of the governorship poll in the state as inconclusive.

Prior to his appointment as the State deputy governor, Gawuna had served as a Local Government Chairman under Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, Commissioner for Agriculture under Rabiu Kwankwaso and Commissioner for Agriculture under Abdullahi Umar Ganduje.

On his part, Garo was a product of the Kwankwaso years as governor of the state. An in- law to Atiku Abubakar and with a lot of grassroots followership, he was the state Commissioner of Local Government and one of the most trusted and able lieutenants of the Ganduje administration.

In the aftermath of the governor’s anointment, many of the aspirants within the APC had laid down their dreams or had moved on from there.

Some of them, like the former Speaker of the House and current Reps member for Rano and Bukure constituency, Kabiru Alhassan Rirum, elected to defect to the NNPP.

The likes of Barrister Inuwa Waya remained in the party to struggle on; A.A Zaura stepped down his dream and settled for Kano Central Senate seat while Senator Barau Jilbrin returned to the quest for the senate seat for Kano North.

In the NNPP, a list of consensus arrangement for various topmost positions appeared in the media a few days ago. From that document, Abba Kabiru Yusuf, a relative of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, emerged as the flag bearer of the party for the governorship post. Abba, who has stayed away from public light ever since his impressive performance in the 2019 elections, is to be deputized by Aminu Abdulsalam, a former Chief of Staff to Kwankwaso and seasoned politician.

Both of them, it must be recalled, made history when they emerged as the winner of the first round of the gubernatorial election in the state. They were eventually defeated at the second round of the exercise by the incumbent.

From the PDP in the state, the list of aspirants is impressive. They include known faces like multi- millionaire business man, Ibrahim Amin Little, son of former Nigeria Head of State, Mohammad Abacha, son of former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sadiq Wali, former Chief of Staff to Kwankwaso, Dr Abubakar Goni, and the former Chairman of the Kano State Public Complaints and Anti Corruption Agency, Buyi Magaji.

Others are the former Commissioner of Budget in the state, Yusuf Dambatta, Mustapha Bala Getso and a former Commissioner of Work, Mauzu Magaji as well as Jafar Sani Bello. Bello told Daily Sun by phone that he is very optimistic he would pick the ticket of the party, adding he and his team had worked very hard to emerge victorious.

Daily Sun reports that a number of litigations between the current State Executive led by Shehu Shagagi and the Aminu Wali faction of the party have shrouded the activities of the party, reducing its impact as an alternate political party in the state.

But there is hope that as soon as they are done with their litigations, the party would rise up to its challenges and be counted.

From the Peoples Redemption Party is the son of Tanko Yakasai, Salihu Tanko Yakassai. He was removed from office for siding the Nigeria masses against Buhari, and has remained very popular.

Enugu: The mind game

No fewer than 20 persons are jostling to replace Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State by May 29, next year, in the three major political parties of PDP, APC and APGA.

Sixteen of this number are from the PDP and they include, former Deputy President of the Senate, Ike Ekweremadu, Prof Bart Nnaji, Chijioke Edeoga, Peter Mbah, Senator Gil Nnaji, Capt. Evarest Nnaji, Rev. Ifeanyi Nwoye, Chinyeaka Ohaa, and Dr. Gabriel Ajah.

Others are Dr. Kingsley Udeh, Pastor Beloved-Dan Anike, Nwabueze Ugwu, Dr Josef Onoh, Erasmus Anike, Prof. Jehu Nnaji and Chukwudi Nneji.

In APGA are former Minister of Information, Frank Nweke (Jnr.), Jeff Nnamani and Donatus Uzoemena, while the APC has Chief Uche Nnaji as the only visible aspirant.

Three major factors would determine who succeeds Ugwuanyi at the end of the day; namely: influence of zoning principle; how the Isi-Uzo matter is handled and the eventual fate of the clamour for South East Presidency.

Barring any changes in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) timetable, all these issues must be settled in less than 10 days.

There have been campaigns that there is governorship zoning arrangement in the state and that it is the turn of Enugu East Senatorial District. Interest groups have invested substantially in pushing this agenda including hosting campaigns. Yet, within this group also exist those who lobby that there should be micro zoning to either Nkanu East or Isi-Uzo Local Government Area citing backwardness in the case of the former.

But another formidable group led by the senator representing Enugu West, Ekweremadu insists that the governorship slot having gone round the three zones should now be open for grabs. For them, what matters most at this period is competency; the capacity of the aspirant to deliver.

In the midst of all these, there has also been contention over the three-man delegates list of the party. Both camps have instituted law suits regarding what the authentic delegates’ list should be. This has further opened flanks for squabbles within the party.

Governor Ugwuanyi has not spoken publicly on where he stands on the unfolding scenarios including naming his preferred aspirant. His has been a clear case of ‘hide and seek,’ though it is open secret that he totally supports zoning the slot to Enugu East. He attended different rallies to shore up support for zoning the governorship there.

As it stands, virtually all the aspirants are jostling to get the governor’s endorsement. But, the popular thinking in Enugu is that the immediate past Commissioner for Environment, Chijioke Edeoga, who hails from Isi-Uzo has the backing of the governor.

Edeoga, a former member of the House of Representatives has continued to power in a manner that not a few see him as the anointed one. The only snag for him is that people are seeing him as an extension of Nsukka cultural bloc where Ugwuanyi belongs.

The fear is that the core Nkanu people in Enugu East Senatorial District may work against him in the election proper if he eventually grabs the party’s ticket.

In that situation, they may support any of their own that emerges from either APGA or APC. There is also the feeling that Ekweremadu may toe the same path in the event that he is denied the PDP ticket.

The foregoing scenario has further compounded PDP’s headache in Enugu State.

Another important factor is that the outcomes of the PDP and APC Presidential conventions relating to the South East would determine the direction of the governorship race in the zone. So, voters in the zone will naturally vote for any party that gives presidential ticket to somebody from the region, and Enugu would not be different.

Meanwhile, 15 PDP governorship aspirants from Enugu East Senatorial District, Saturday, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to accept, without hesitation, any one among them whom the governor chooses to become the candidate of the party.

It was only Prof. Hillary Edeoga that failed to produce himself for the meeting where the undertaking was entered into before the Enugu East Traditional Rulers Council led by its Chairman, Igwe Julius Nnaji, the Odezuluigbo II of Nike.

In the MoU, the aspirants also agreed not to drag the fallout of Ugwuanyi’s choice and the primary election to any court of law, agreeing also, that those not favoured by the choice would be carried along in the new government to be formed in 2023.

They said they were committed to “A compromise on matters that will promote unity, law, and order during the campaign and election period; respect for the governor of Enugu State and acceptance of his choice of a candidate from this group in the best interests of the Enugu–East Senatorial Zone and Enugu State at large.

The MoU was prepared under the auspices, guidance, and direction of the Traditional Rulers Council of the Enugu–East Senatorial District and the PDP Zonal Chairman, Enugu-East Senatorial District, Chief Nnamdi Nwafor and adopted at the Nike Lake Resort Hotel in Enugu.

Taraba: Religion and zoning as major factors

In Taraba, several intrigues and permutations have continued to play out in the hustle for the governorship seat with alleged outright imposition of candidates and substitution of delegate list in some political parties.

Apart from that, religion and zoning remain some of the topical issues that would decide the fate of the aspirants.

The PDP has enjoyed uninterrupted rule of Taraba since the return to democracy in 1999, producing all the governors so far and most of the legislative positions both at the state and federal levels.

During the 2015 and 2019 general elections, the candidate of the APC gave a hard run to the party but the party still held sway ultimately. This was partly due to the high regards they had for the zoning arrangement that saw the first governor from the Northern Zone between 1999 and 2003, Central Zone between 2007 and 2015 and Southern Taraba from 2015 to date.

However, as the preparations for the 2023 general elections gather momentum, the party seems to be in disarray as the zoning arrangement seems to have been relegated to the background.

Following the zoning arrangement, the governorship position is supposed to return to the Northern Zone in 2023. However, while the governor is said to be in full support of the arrangement, some interests in the South have insisted that the seat must remain in the zone for the next eight years.

According to Alhaji Abdulrazaq Musa, the pioneer Chairman of PDP in the state who is also the leader of PDP elders forum from Northern Zone, the move by some interests to set aside the zoning arrangement could spell doom for the party.

However, only recently, an elder statesman was alleged to have stirred the anger of the party members in his bid to impose a candidate from the Southern Zone who is very unpopular in the state.

While about five aspirants from the Northern Zone have picked the forms and have been screened by the party, two other aspirants front the South have also been screened and cleared to contest.

Among the top aspirants in the northern zone are the Speaker of the state Assembly, Professor Joseph Albasu Kunini, former PDP Chairman in the state, Victor Bala Kona, former Accountant General of the state, Ayuba Aminu Kotolo, Dr Hilkia Buba Joda and Professor Jerome Nyame. In the South, Mr Damian Dodo (SAN) and Senator Joel Ikyenya also picked the forms and have been cleared to vie for the ticket of the party.

Meanwhile, the APC in the state is also relentless in her bid to take over the state in 2023.

The state Chairman of the party Alhaji Ibrahim Tukur El-Sudi told Journalists recently that the ruling PDP in the state has done all the campaign for the APC through the gross underperformance of the present administration in the state and expressed optimism that the party will win the state unfailingly in 2023.

The party has also enjoyed influx of high profile persons from the PDP recently including the former Senate Deputy Minority leader, Emmanuel Bwacha, former speakers of the state House of Assembly, Mr Abel Diah and Dr. Mark Useni among others.

However, a clash of interests among the old and new comers is threatening to tear the party apart. Only recently, the party Chairman announced and inaugurated a new set of officials for four local government areas in the Southern zone of the state in a move many believe was intended to alter the political calculations in favour of a certain new comer and aspirant in the party. So far, the move is met with still opposition and litigations.

While the party maintains that the zoning arrangement is a creation of the PDP and has nothing to do with the APC, most people believe that religion will okay a central role in deciding the fate of the party.

In the two governorship elections that the party has participated in so far in the state, most people believe that the party failed to make headways because they fielded candidates who are Muslims, giving credence to the notion that the APC is a religious or Muslim party.

For most analysts, “the APC stands a very good chance of clinching the governorship seat of the state if they are fair enough to allow a Christian fly their flag, rather than insisting on a Muslim”.

Taraba is a predominantly Christian state with a good Muslim population. In recent times, however, the Muslim Council raised the alarm over what they considered as marginalisation of Muslims in the state by the state government.

Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the NNPP, and other political parties are also on standby, deliberately delaying their primaries to create room for those who may feel aggrieved with the outcome of their respective party primaries and may decide to defect to other options.

While the issues of zoning, religion, litigations and imposition of candidates continue to play strategic roles in the clamour for who succeeds Governor Darius Ishaku in 2023, insecurity and poverty are a major concern for the people.

Recent security challenges in the state occasioned by bomb blasts, rise in thuggery and street violence especially at political gatherings are a major cause for alarm for the people.

Whether the political parties and political bigwigs will be willing to play the game by the rules, allow delegates to chose the right candidates and rally support for whoever emerges for each party, or whether the process of primaries will lead to the crash of some political parties and the rise of others remains to be seen in the days ahead. For now, one thing that is obvious is that the political calculations in Taraba as regards the governorship tussle remain a mirage.

Cross River: Consensus collapses

In Cross River, the consensus option initially envisaged has collapsed as the APC, PDP governorship aspirants head for primaries.

A few days away from the exercise, the two major parties in the state are working round the clock to manoeuvre the political space for the governorship victory in 2023.

Before now, the discordant tunes over zoning and consensus were the trending campaign issues but all that seem to have collapsed ahead of the governorship primaries.

The APC in the state took the bull by the horns on May 10, 2022 when it announced Sen. Bassey Otu as the consensus governorship aspirant. Sen Otù, seen by many party stalwarts as a game changer, was a former Senator representing southern senatorial district of Cross River state.

But describing the consensus as contrived and taken ‘amid good food and vintage liquor’, the Director-General of Chris Agara Campaign Organisation, Richard Ogbeche, in a statement dissociated them from the arrangement, saying “we are not part of the so-called ‘consensus’ APC candidature.”

The statement said as legitimate members of the APC, they have always respected and will continue to respect the lawful decisions of the party and all its organs at all levels, but added that such respect and loyalty should however be mutual since the leadership of the party and the governor are as important to the members as the members should be important to them.

Agara pointed out the grave disrespect to some governorship aspirants and assured its teeming supporters that he remains committed and competitive in the race and is prepared to pursue his aspiration to its logical conclusion.

The emergence of the Chancellor and owner of Arthur Jarvis University, Sir Arthur Jarvis Archibong, as the PDP Southern Senatorial Elders Forum consensus aspirant ahead of the party’s governorship primary has not only unsettled some aspirants, but thrown the party in the zone into confusion.

Jarvis who polled the majority votes during the Southern Senatorial district PDP leaders’ meeting, was named the unanimous choice of the Southern Senatorial district against other aspirants including Senator Gershom Bassey, Daniel Asuquo, Efiok Cobham, Amb. Nkoyo Toyo and Pastor Eyo Okpoene.

The meeting held on May 8, 2022 and presided over by the former Governor Donald Duke was aimed at encouraging the aspirants to, on their own accord, whittle down their numbers and thus enhance the chances for the success of a Southern candidate for the party.

Duke in a statement explained that the inability of all the aspirants to presen

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