The United Nations (UN) recommends a national census enumeration for every country at least once every 10 years. That Nigeria has for years failed to meet that target is why we can easily understand the recent decision by the Council of State for a national census to hold in Nigeria next year. Following that approval, the Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), Nasir Kwarra announced that a pilot census would be conducted in June this year shortly after the completion of the nomination of candidates for the 2023 general election by the political parties.

It is difficult to fault the idea of a national census. Once the baseline demographic footprint of a nation is done properly, subsequent changes can be determined almost accurately through satellite imaging and statistical projections. Population updates can then be carried out through mandatory birth and death registrations, patterns of migration such as internal displacements or the attraction of economic opportunities in parts of the country, etc. And in recommending that countries should conduct a census every 10 years, the UN believes that will allow for the capture of changes in structure and movement of population. Unfortunately, census has always been a problem in Nigeria.

Our census trajectory is so mired in controversies that the country went as far as annulling two of them (1973 and 1991). From the 1953 census done by the British to that of 2006, all ended up in controversy. That then explains why we have relied on estimates and projections that are not very helpful for national planning. Figures from the last census conducted 16 years ago revealed that Nigeria’s total population was 140.43 million people. Since then, we have relied on projections by different local and international bodies. The current Worldometer projection is that Nigeria is about 206 million people.

Many would wonder why a simple ‘headcount’ is such a difficult thing to do in Nigeria. It is due to the distortion of our federal structure since population determines how much each of the 36 states and 774 local government areas gets from the Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF) disbursed monthly by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

There are other political considerations such that over the past 16 years, Nigeria had on several occasions rehashed and made feeble attempts at conducting a credible census. A former Chairman of the NPC, Festus Odimegwu, once declared that Nigeria’s census “figures are just guesstimates; nobody knows whether the population is 120 million, 150 million, 200 million – not Nigeria, not the NPC, the UN, the World Bank. Unless you conduct a proper census, which has never been done without political interference, it is not possible to know.”

Odimegwu is right. Yet, at no other time is a real census desirable than now to help for proper national planning. Many have expressed concern that an annual population growth rate far higher than GDP growth rate is a time-bomb. Nigeria’s population is projected to hit 264 million by 2030 – crossing the 300 million thresholds around 2036. With the emerging trends, it is expedient that a proper census be conducted. But before such an exercise, there is need for a reorientation for Nigerians to see population counts as an instrument for economic planning rather than for the allocation of unearned resources.

While we believe that Nigeria is desirous of a national census, we submit that such an exercise must be all-encompassing while accommodating all the ingredients of reliability and acceptability. Coming immediately after the general election, the authorities should anticipate forces that could mar the process before, during and after the exercise. And there must be plans to counter those threats.

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