Less than 14 months before the expiration of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, the political atmosphere has become charged and boisterous. But in the familiar Nigerian election culture, the situation is not unexpected though. With the national conventions of the All Progressives Congress(APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP), the two major political parties over, the battle now is how to produce their presidential candidates.

For followers of events, so many issues are in contention but the major one is which zone between the North and South should produce the next president of Nigeria.

Political permutations and calculations have become the order of the day, particularly in the ruling APC and PDP. However, the arguments by both parties are not the same. In the PDP, majority of the power brokers in the North claim that the South has short changed the region. Their argument is that since the return of democracy in 1999, the North under the PDP has only been in power for two and a half years while the South has spent 13 and a half years. In their estimation, even if Buhari’s eight years by May 29, 2023, are added, it would still be 10 and a half years for the North as against 13 and a half years for the South. Therefore, based on the calculations, they would want a Northerner to succeed Buhari for the sake of equity, justice and fairness.

Critical observers assume that it is based on the above calculations that the former vice president, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, former senate president, Dr. Bukola Saraki, Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal and Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, all of the PDP insist that the party’s presidential ticket should be thrown open to all sections of Nigeria in 2023. Even though their position runs contrary to their party’s constitution, they are resolute and hell-bent on their quest to clinch the party’s presidential ticket.

However, other group of persons, particularly from the South and some parts of the Middle Belt regions insist on zoning as the PDP’s constitution stipulates. They are also calling for equity, justice and fairness to prevail and remind their Northern colleagues that Nigeria did not start in 1999 but in 1960. Their position is that in over 60 years of Nigeria’s existence as an independent nation, the North has ruled for 48 years, leaving a paltry 14 years for the South.

However in the South, there is agitation by the people of South East for all political parties to micro-zone their presidential tickets to the geo-political bloc for equity, justice and fairness. The contention of people of the zone is that it is the only bloc out of the three major tribes in Nigeria that has not produced the president since 1999. They also argue that out of over 60 years of Nigeria’s existence, the Igbo have only occupied the presidential position for six months while their partners in Nigeria, the Hausa/Fulani and the Yoruba, have ruled for many years at different times. Against this argument, aspirants like the former senate president, Anyim Pius Anyim, former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) deputy governor, Kingsley Moghalu, former Governor of Abia State and Senate Chief Whip, Orji Uzor Kalu; former Governor of Imo State, Rochas Okorocha have declared their intention to contest for the president of Nigeria in 2023.

But the South-South and South West, where former President Goodluck former President Olusegun Obasanjo come from do not seem to buy the South East argument. It is little wonder that many aspirants from the two Southern zones have thrown their hats into the ring of the presidential election. They include former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, Governor of Akwa Ibom, Udom Emmanuel, Minister of Transport, Rotimi Amaechi, former Governor of Ekiti State, Ayodele Fayose.

In the PDP, confused and overwhelmed by the cacophony of divergent views on the issue of zoning, the party had set up a 37-man committee, under the chairmanship of the Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom, to resolve the matter. Ortom’s committee, last week, submitted its report to the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party for final decision.

Although there were media reports that Ortom’s zoning committee had thrown open the contest to all the geopolitical zones, the Benue Governor has debunked it, saying that the Committee only made recommendations to NEC, which has the final say.

Another member of the committee and member of the party’s Board of Trustees, Chief Bode George also admitted that the greatest problem currently facing the PDP is zoning but noted that the Committee’s report would guide NEC to make the final decision. Both Geroge and Ortom expressed their personal opinions on the matter, stressing that the PDP has a constitution, which says that presidency should be rotated between North and South. For George, the party must make a definite statement to Nigerians that the presidency is zoned to the South just as the APC has done because according to him, Nigeria is ‘turn by turn limited’ for peace to reign.

Despite the seeming impasse over zoning, some observers believe that there might be light at the end of the tunnel. For instance, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has challenged the leadership of the PDP to zone the party’s presidential ticket to the South East if it is serious about the issue of equity and fairness.

Atiku went further to say that he will step down his presidential ambition once other aspirants in the South concede the privilege of producing the presidential candidate of the party to the South East.

The Waziri Adamawa who said this in his verified facebook page frowned on the development where aspirants from South West and South-South are also gunning for the presidential ticket when it ought to be conceded to the South East which he said, has not had the opportunity since the current dispensation.

He noted that former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan are from SouthWest and South-South respectively and argued that for aspirants like Rivers state governor, Nyesom Wike and former Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose to be angling for the ticket is inappropriate and runs foul of the spirit of equity and fairness.

He said, “If PDP zones its presidential candidate to South East, I will withdraw for fairness and equity. However, if PDP zones its presidential ticket to the South, I will not withdraw because there is no fairness and equity.

“Goodluck Jonathan was president for 6 years. For fairness and equity, Wike should not contest but he is contesting. Olusegun Obasanjo was president for 8 years. For fairness and equity, Fayose should not contest but he is contesting.

“My region (North East) has not produced a president in this country but I am ready to step down if PDP zones it to South East.

If Wike and Fayose want fairness and equity, they should be fighting for PDP’s presidential ticket to be zoned to South East not South.”

Socio-political organisations in the South, Afenifere, Ohaneze Ndigbo and Pan Niger Delta Elders Forum (PANDEF), as well as the Middle Belt Forum (MBF), have reiterated their earlier position that they would not support any presidential candidate from the North in 2023, and they insist that after President Buhari’s eight years in power as a Northerner, power should naturally shift to the South.

Ohaneze Ndigbo, which has been vocal since the 37-man committee failed to provide definite answers to the zoning puzzle has even gone ahead to describe as a political suicide any attempt by the party to throw its presidential ticket open to all zones in the country.

Ondo State Governor and Chairman of Southern Governors’ Forum, Rotimi Akeredolu, has also warned that any political party that fields a Northern candidate in the 2023 presidential election would lose. He noted that the 17 governors in the Southern part of the country under the auspices of the Southern Governors’ Forum were determined to ensure that the next president comes from the South.

Meanwhile, the aspirants from the North with the exception of Atiku have been crisscrossing the country, meeting, consulting and lobbying for a consensus candidate. Former Senate President, Saraki, is spearheading the consensus argument for the candidate of the PDP.

It is not clear why Atiku has decided to stay away from Saraki and his group, but those who understand the political game believe that the governors, and by extension, former governors in the party, want one of their own to emerge as the next president.

So, in PDP, there are those who want a consensus candidate; those who want zoning arrangement as enshrined in the party’s constitution to be respected and those who believe that the best and most competent person should take the ticket.

Analysts argue that the PDP must handle the precarious issue of zoning with high level of political maturity if the party actually wants to wrest power from the ruling APC. People with this mindset are indirectly saying that only a candidate from the North would stand a chance of defeating the ruling party. To them, any party but APC in 2023 is what Nigerians want, following the abysmal performance of the ruling party in the last seven years. As Nigerians await the decision of the PDP NEC, the expectation is that the fate of the party would be determined by how the NEC resolves the issue of zoning at the end of the day.

Just like the PDP, the ruling APC is also enmeshed in the crisis of who flies the party’s presidential flag in 2023 general elections. Although the ruling party seems to have resolved the issue of zoning as it appears to have favoured the South to pick its presidential ticket, opposition is swelling against the candidacy of the party’s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. That, analysts believe, is the biggest problem currently facing the party considering his influence in the APC.

Tinubu is believed to have been the major force behind the party’s success in 2015 and many believe that if he had not worked with Buhari in 2015, PDP would not have been defeated by the APC in the election then. There has been campaign of calumny against Tinubu, with some saying he is too old and frail to respond to the vagaries of the office of the president of Nigeria, and that his real age is not the one he declared, among others stories about him. But he has remained undaunted and resolute, with his eyes squarely focused on the ball.

There are insinuations in some quarters that during the formation of the APC, there was a gentleman agreement between Tinubu’s then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and Buhari’s then Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) to rotate the presidency between the two major parties in the merger that produced the ruling party. It is believed that Tinubu wants that gentleman’s agreement to be respected, but those around the corridor of power think otherwise. To them, there was no such agreement, so they are pushing for a consensus candidate.

Those close to APC power brokers, believe that the consensus option is a subtle strategy to ensure that Asiwaju is schemed out of the race because they fear that if the party should conduct primaries, there is every likelihood that Asiwaju could get the ticket since he has a large following among delegates in his party, particularly in his home state, Lagos. There is also a conspiracy theory that those pushing strongly for consensus are made of many power brokers from Tinubu’s South West zone; in other words, part of his greatest opposition is surprisingly coming from his home.

So, as it stands now, the APC hierarchy is seriously rooting for a consensus candidate; a situation keen watchers of the development in that could force Tinubu to adopt a new strategy. The strategy in the estimation of many, could be to stay in the party and work against it in the general election if the plans to deny him the ticket materialises or pitch his political tent elsewhere.

Unlike the PDP that is yet to decide on zoning, the APC has taken a decision on it, or so it seems. Some analysts insist that some power brokers in the party from the North might not totally agree with the party’s zoning arrangement. Those who are contemplating going against the already settled zoning formula believe that if the PDP eventually throws its ticket open and a Northerner picks it, the APC would have a serious problem. So, to them, the only way to forestall such development is to also throw the APC’s ticket open, so that Northerners could also contest for the ticket. On the surface, it would seem as if the political battle will be for the Southerners only, but right behind the scene, Northerners are also perfecting their strategies to grab the ticket and square it up with the PDP in the event that a candidate from the region emerges there.

Those who have publicly declared their interest in the APC’s presidential ticket apart from Tinubu, include Orji Uzor Kalu; Rochas Okorocha; Minister of Transport, Rotimi Amaechi, Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, and Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi. (Daily Sun)

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