As an oil producing nation and member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria is not immune to the dire implications of Russia’s recognition of the ‘people’s republics’ of Luhansk and Donetsk in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass and the current military attack on Ukraine by President Vladimir Putin. But beyond the surging oil price and what that portends for our national economy, there are also clear issues of international law and diplomacy at stake in this crisis. The casual invasion of Ukraine by Russia and deliberate carving up of ‘sovereign states’ takes territorial violation one step further.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is bound to draw grave humanitarian catastrophe and there is nothing to suggest that the Nigerian authorities understand the wider implications. In the past few weeks, many countries had issued advisory for their nationals to leave Ukraine with evacuation plans also in place. But weekend report from the Nigerian embassy in Poland is encouraging and we hope our nationals will embrace the opportunity.

The bloodletting and destruction in Ukraine bode ill for global peace. The United Nations and the principal actors in the crisis should reckon with Ukraine as a nation rather than an object of a geo-political game between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) members. Putin deserves all the condemnation that now comes his way for the violence being inflicted on the people of Ukraine, but his belligerence can also be deemed strategic and military. Control of Ukraine’s naval facilities has always been important for Russia’s power to counter NATO’s incursion into its sphere of influence.

Putin’s risky gamble in Ukraine presents a big dilemma for global peace. The message is clear: If not challenged, he could seek to reconquer the former Soviet republics to satisfy an autocratic hunger for Cold War era power tussle. He had attacked Georgia and invaded a substantial part of Crimea. And he has chased his domestic adversaries to London and other western capital cities.

However, the Ukraine invasion may prove more difficult for Russia. A long period of instability and small wars in the breakaway provinces of Ukraine is about to begin. Nearly all former Soviet republics opposed to Russia’s ambition will now tilt more overtly towards the West. Sanctions will bite a more isolated Russia despite Chinese short-term assurances of relief and palliatives. Of course, Europe will not go unscathed. Energy costs will jump as gas pipelines from Russia will either be cut off or be made more expensive for their European end users. Higher living costs will fire up public discontent and possibly protests. Politicians will panic or be taken out by the electorate. Overall, there will be many losers in this needless war.

Will Putin survive this conflict? Only time will tell. Increased sanctions-driven hardship will swell the Russian opposition and empower more popular heroes than just the jailed Alexi Navalny. Russia’s makeshift authoritarian ‘democracy’ could come under pressure and possibly unravel from a military industrial alliance funded by exiled oligarchs who live and have their money mostly in the West.

For us as a country, we stand to win and lose economically. While the price of crude oil has in recent days risen dramatically, production is limited by both OPEC quota and our own problems of sector mismanagement and security challenges. Ukraine which has also become a destination choice for many Nigerians desirous of better education at less-prohibitive costs are now caught in the crisis. While we hope that the oil situation will compel a policy shift in the country, especially in the downstream sector, Nigerians who may now be trapped in Ukraine should also not be abandoned to their fate.

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