As the journey towards the 2023 presidential race hots up, KUNLE ODEREMI examines the trajectory of the contest since 1999 vis-a-vis the issue of zoning and good governance in the last 22 years in the country.

It is almost a song among major political actors: the need for credible leadership in Nigeria. Virtually all of those that have led the campaign have, at one period or the other, thrown their hats into the ring for the presidency after serving as governors, members of the Senate, ministers and ambassadors to other countries or even held other high-profile appointive and elective offices. Ironically, nearly all of those that champion that advocacy for credible leadership turned out being accused of soiling their fingers after finding themselves in the corridors of power. Today, there is an avalanche of pending cases bordering on impropriety before them at the regular courts, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent corrupt Practices and other Related Commission (EFCC). Through various forms of technicalities, their lawyers have succeeded in either frustrating due diligent prosecution or employed plea bargain or other means to keep the matters in abeyance. One of such political actors, said to be nursing a fresh presidential bid and serving in the National Assembly, who is said to have looted his state blindly and mindlessly as governor had listed what he consider the germane qualities whoever must become president must possess as far back as 2014. His prescription included honesty, level-headedness, transparency, accountability, fairness and objectivity. His conclusion was that once those virtues were missing, the issue of credible leadership is already compromised. Based on his template and prescription, can it be said successive leaders since May 29, 1999, have governed with character, integrity, prestige and honour?

More than 22 years after, many of the vexed issues that plagued the country during the prolonged military interregnum persists. The economy is in shambles. Major infrastructure remains dilapidated. Public utilities in a fit-and-start condition. The problem of security of lives and property has become most frightening. Ethnic agitation for equity, justice and fairness subsists, while calls for restructuring of the country has assumed highest decibel, just as frustration has set in among the citizens on the future of the largest Black nation in the world.

The presidential race since 1999

The galaxy of stars that indicated interest in the presidency at the dawn of military exit from the corridors of power about 22 years ago was impressive. It was an admixture of established technocrats, distinguished administrators and relative tested political juggernauts. The roll call included Second Republic vice president, Dr Alex Ekwueme; a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Chief Olu Falae, former governor of the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), Malam Adamu Ciroma; Second Republic governor of Oyo State, Chief Bola Ige; former governor of Abia State, Dr Ogbonnaya Onu; Second Republic Senate Majority Leader, Dr Olusola Saraki; Chief Tonye Graham–Douglas, board room guru, Gamaliel Onosode and seasoned administrator and former ‘super’ federal permanent secretary, Chief Philip Asiodu. The list later included former Head of State, Gen Olusegun Obasanjo, who eventually became president.

The transition from the Obasanjo administration strengthened the dominance of the political space by serving state governors, especially in the two leading political parties: All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and has continued till date. With Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who was elected the governor of Adamawa State in 1999, becoming vice president to Obasanjo and Dr Goodluck Jonathan rising to the position of vice president from the post of governor, other former governors have never lowered their guard in the bid to occupy the exalted office of president of the country. They are all clustered in the former ruling PDP and the APC.

Immediate past president of the Senate, Dr Bukola Saraki is only waiting in the wings before publicly renewing his presidential bid. He was a two-term governor of Kwara State. A former minister and senator, Dr Musa Kwankwaso is once again poised to join the race. He served for maximum eight years of four years each as governor of Kano State. Governor Aminu Tambuwal, who is on the last lap of his second term in office, is said to be preparing ground to join the fray again. He was the Speaker of the House of Representatives. All of them and a number of others, among them, a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Chief Anyim Pius Anyim and a former chairman of the Nigerian economic Summit Group, Chief Sam Ohuabunwa are eyeing the ticket of PDP.

From all the events that led to the build-up to the recent PDP national convention, the 13 governors – Rivers, Enugu, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Bayelsa, Abia, Benue, Oyo, Bauchi, Sokoto, Taraba, and Adamawa – as well as the Deputy Governor of Zamfara State, proved that they were in full in control of the party. They determined who got what in the party’s new National Working Committee (NWC) at the October convention. The governors ensured their loyalists were nominated for the key posts and they achieved consensus for most of the posts where they are directly involved. In the three cases which had to be decided by voting: deputy national chairman (south), national youth leader, and national auditor, the candidates on the unity list drawn by the governors still won. Thus, Samuel Ortom of Benue provided the national chairman; Nyesom Wike of Rivers provided the national Secretary; Seyi Makinde of Oyo provided the national deputy chairman (South); Tambuwal provided the National Organising Secretary.

According to party sources, the governors displayed cohesion and focus in the manner they execute the election of the new NWC of PDP. It is believed that they are doing this for a purpose. The ultimate end is to decide the presidential candidate of PDP, which from their interaction and body language, two options might be on the cards. One is to make one of them PDP standard-bearer or to produce a candidate who might not be a serving governor but must be in their age category or one of their peers. The source claimed that they might prefer a candidate who they can relate with when he emerges as president and who will not feel too big or narrow-minded in his disposition towards them.

On the flip are APC major stakeholders like a former governor of Lagos State, Chief Bola Tinubu. His associates, loyalists and allies have raised the bar in the contest for the ticket of APC. Senator Ahmed Sani, who was governor of Zamfara State for two terms, is keen to fly APC flag in 2023. Within the realm of speculations are names like Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, two former governors of Ogun State, Otunba Gbenga Daniel and his successor, Ibikunle Amosun, who is current serving in the Senate, as well as the governor of Ekiti State, Dr Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State, whose current tenure ends next year. Names of a former Minister of Agriculture and incumbent President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dr Adewunmi Adesina and the Minister of Interior, Mr Rauf Aregbesola are also being mentioned in certain quarters.

Zoning riddle

The scenario is the ruling APC is fog and slippery and largely based on speculations and conjectures. One of the hypothesis is on the ground of the preponderance of contenders for the position of national chairman from the North. Former governors, serving members of the Senate and other categories of APC stalwarts have stepped up campaign to lead the party. Nonetheless, a few party buffs from the North claim they are not prepared to bury their presidential ambition. They also find themselves pitched against other APC power brokers leading the advocacy for power shifting to the Southern axis of the country in 2023. A couple of them are said to be angling to become running mate to southern presidential candidate that might emerge in APC. But while the party is keeping Nigerians in suspense over its likely power sharing formula, especially zoning, there is disquiet over PDP decision to throw the contest open to all the zones after north has produced chairman in the person of Third Republic president of the Senate, Dr Iyorchia Ayu. A former deputy national chairman of the party, Chief Olabode George, faults the resolve of the party on the decision. George said: “We have six geo-political zones, and there are six top positions in the land: president, vice-president, president of the Senate, Speaker, Secretary to Government of the Federation and national chairman of the party. With the arrangement, every zone will go home with one of this; so, that sense of belonging will be enhanced. Now after every eight years, the three top positions will come to the South; the three at the bottom will go to the North. There can be no reason that the national chairman and the president will come from the same zone or side. If the presidency goes up, vice presidency goes down. The Senate presidency goes up, the speakership comes down. The secretary to the government of the Federation position goes up North, while the national chairmanship slot comes South.”

In a paper with the title: Political leadership and Succession in democracies, a former chairman of the electoral commission during the military era, Professor Eme Awa argued on the merits and demerits of zoning of the office of the president. He drew a parallel between a productive president and insensitive president, a case of an incompetent and narrow-minded individual becoming president of the country. He said: “Of course, we can argue that Zone one president will rule wisely and with a sense of equity so that zone two president will reciprocate the gesture. But suppose zone one president is neither reasonable nor wise and is not concerned with the question of equity, then where do we go from there? All we are likely to achieve with this scheme is to rotate inefficiency, corruption, mismanagement and indiscipline from one zone to another.”

Another senior citizen and former bureaucrat, Asiodu is sad about the kind of leadership being thrust upon Nigeria over the years. He decries the ceaseless policy somersaults and reckless abandonments, with the dire consequences on the larger society. He notes that part of the solutions lies in putting responsible and responsive leadership on the driver’s seat. Drawing examples from other lands, the former federal permanent secretary declared: “What the ordinary man desires is shelter, food, educational facilities to ensure his children’s advancement in life and of course adequate and improving availability of power, health and transportation infrastructure. He is really not interested in the power struggles among politicians. Good patriotic visionary leadership and good governance which result in rapid economic and social progress and improving standard of living and quality of life for the great majority of the people are what will lead to national cohesion and stability.

(Nigerian Tribune)

Update news