Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has never hidden his ambition to lead Nigeria and has made four unsuccessful attempts at it. He is yet to declare for the 2023 presidency but recent developments show that he is likely to take another shot the country’s number one position, FELIX NWANERI reports

The 2023 presidential election is less than two years ahead, but the polity is gradually witnessing alignment and re-alignment of political forces as some political foes are coming together, while hitherto allies are parting ways.

The Independent National Electoral Commission has already announced February 18, 2023 as the date for the poll, and expected, some gladiators, who are angling to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari have started testing the political waters.

However, it is has been denials by some of the personalities being touted to be interested in the race even when their campaign posters have continued to flood major cities across the states of the federation as well as endorsements by support groups.

While these strategies are not new to the nation’s electioneering, the recent visit by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to the governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, has been described by political analysts as too important to be ignored.

The former vice-president (1999- 2009) was the candidate of the PDP in theFebruary 23, 2019 presidential election, but was defeated by President Muhammadu Buhari, who contested the poll on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Atiku has not indicated interest in taking another shot at the presidency, but his name has prominently featured among those interested in the ticket of the main opposition party.

Campaign posters announcing his 2023 ambition have not only surfaced but have been trending on the social media for some time now. While some of the posters are silent on the platform he will use to actualise his ambition, others have the PDP logo on them, and they had inscriptions such as “Atiku 2023,” “Vote Atiku Abubakar for 2023 presidency,”

Movement 2023: Atiku is coming” and “Atiku, my choice 2023.” among others. The former vice-president has also not openly associated himself with the various support groups promoting the 2023 campaign, but his media aide, Mazi Paul Ibe, at a time said: “The support groups are everyday Nigerians who believe in an idea and, most times, they express themselves without recourse to anyone.”

Atiku’s eyes on 2023

The Waziri Adamawa has never pretended about occupying the country’s number one position. After retiring from the Customs Service in 1989, he ventured into business and politics and ran for the office of governor in the then Gongola State (now Adamawa and Taraba States) in 1991, but was not successful.

He contested for the presidency in 1993, placing third after Moshood Abiola and Babagana Kingibe in the presidential primary election of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

In 1998 he was elected governor of Adamawa State. While still Governor-elect, he was selected by the PDP presidential candidate, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo as his running mate.

The duo went on to win the election in February 1999. After his first term as vicepresident, some governors elected on the platform of the then ruling party came up with a plot to deny Obasanjo a second term.

The plan was to hand Atiku the party’s presidential ticket in that year’s general election but he opted for a joint a ticket with his principal and both won the election.

However, the botched plot pitched them and the cold war that ensued after their inauguration, degenerated to bitter political battle by 2006, when Atiku declared his ambition to succeed Obasanjo.

Obasanjo’s insistence that Atiku would not succeed him forced the latter to leave the PDP for the defunct Action Congress (AC), which handed him its presidential ticket.

Despite securing the party’s ticket, another round of power play led to his exclusion from the final list of 24 candidates for the 2007 presidential election released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

INEC cited Atiku’s indictment for corruption as the reason for the omission.

But Atiku approached the court to challenge his exclusion. The matter got to the Supreme Court, which in a unanimous decision ruled that the electoral body had no power to disqualify any candidate for an election.

The judgement paved the way for him to contest the poll, but he came a distant third. The election was won by the PDP candidate, late President Umaru Yar’Adua. Atiku rejected the result and called for its cancellation, describing the poll as Nigeria’s “worst election.”

After the 2007 elections, Atiku returned to the PDP in 2009. While his return was initially resisted by his state chapter of the PDP, he was granted a waiver by the party’s national leadership.

That paved the way for him to contest the 2011 PDP presidential primaries. He was selected by the Northern Elders Political Leaders Forum (NPEF) led by former Minister of Finance, Mallam Adamu Ciroma, as the region’s consensus candidate but was floored at PDP’s presidential primary election alongside Mrs. Sarah Jubril by then Acting President Goodluck Jonathan, who later went ahead to win the election.

The 2011 defeat did not deter Atiku as he surfaced again in 2014 for the 2015 presidency. He had before then made good his threat of dumping the PDP should the party’s leadership fail to return it to the vision of its founding fathers with his defection to the then opposition APC.

He said of his defection: “As a former Vice President, I am by virtue of the PDP constitution, a member of the party’s Board of Trustees and its National Executive Committee.

However, I am not invited to the meetings of those organs nor consulted on their decisions, apparently because I dared to exercise my right to contest in the party’s primary election for a chance to be its flag-bearer in the 2011 elections.”

While many believed then that Atiku would be the candidate to beat in the APC presidential primary election given his financial strength and political structure, he lost the ticket to Buhari, who enjoyed the support of party leaders and governors.

The former vice president came a shocking third with 954 votes, trailing former Kano State governor, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso (974 votes) and Buhari (4,430 votes). Atiku accepted the result and pledged to support the party’s choice in the election, and never reneged though some party members later accused him of not showing much commitment during the campaigns.

With the election won by his party’s candidate (Buhari), the former vice president returned to his business, but a rumoured ambition sometime in 2017 prompted political analysts and observers to believe that the he has not foreclosed his presidential ambition.

It was alleged then that Atiku hosted political meetings at Burj Al-Arab, Dubai Dubai, United Arab Emirates, apparently to revive his political machinery ahead of the 2019 presidential election, but the former vice president described the rumour as the handiwork of political mischief makers, who were out to draw a wedge between him and President Buhari.

Denial being another name for politics, it was not long before the picture became clear that the former vice president will take another shot at the presidency. There was a roadblock to this quest – President Buhari’s second term bid.

This barrier apparently forced him to resign from the APC on November 24, 2017. He hinged his decision on APC’s failure to deliver on its promises to Nigerians, who, according to him, have long been desperate for improved economic interventions.

While the former vice president promised then to take time to ponder about his next political move, it was obvious that he would be returning to his former party. This belief manifested on December 3, 3027, when he formally returned to the PDP. He said of his action: “

Today, I want to let you know that I am returning home to the PDP as the issues that led me to leave it have now been resolved and it is clear that the APC has let the Nigerian people, and especially our young people down,” With his return to the PDP, the stage was set for the former vicepresident to join the 2019 presidential race.

As expected, Atiku defeated 11 other aspirants at the PDP’s national convention held in Port Harcourt, Rivers State on December 7, 2018. He polled 1,532 votes to beat his closest rival, Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, who scored 693 votes, while the Senate President, Bukola Saraki came third with 317 votes.

Following Atiku’s emergence as the presidential candidate of the PDP, the battle line for the 2019 presidency was drawn between him and President Buhari but the former vice-president lost the February 27, 2019 presidential election to the incumbent by over million votes.

Atiku challenged the outcome of the election but the Supreme Court dashed his hope of upturning the table against Buhari.

Consultation ahead of 2023

Though it has been a mind game by the leadership of two leading political parties (APC and PDP) over where their respective presidential tickets for the 2023 general election will go to between the country’s political divides – North and South, there is no doubt that Atiku has his eyes set on his party’s ticket.

The former vice-president had in a chat with journalists after his meeting with Wike in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital, on Thursday, said Nigerians are looking forward to the return of the PDP to power in 2023.

He added that he came to discuss with Wike on how to ensure unity and stability in the PDP for the party to take over in 2023. Atiku and Wike have not enjoyed the best of political relationship before now.

The duo were in opposing camps during the run up to the 2019 presidential election. Wike had backed the governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, for the party’s ticket against Atiku, who eventually emerged as the standard bearer.

But Atiku, who said he was in Rivers State to reconcile with Wike governor on party affairs, used the occasion to launch attack on the APC-led Federal Government. Commenting on the state of the nation, the former vice-president said he hasn’t seen Nigeria in such a “bad” state like this in his years of existence.

His words: “I came here to reconcile with the governor on party affairs and how we can ensure there is unity and stability of our party, so that we will take over government in 2023. I believe Nigerians can’t wait for 2023 to come so that PDP will return.

“I have never seen it this bad, I’m seventy plus. I have never seen it this bad in terms of security challenges, in terms of unemployment. I have never seen it so bad; this is worst.”

Atiku added the PDP will unveil what it has for Nigerians when the time comes, noting that under the party, the country has the best foreign reserves. “Why can’t you give us time? We will come up with our policies. We will present to Nigerians when the time comes.

You know we can do that. We have done that before in PDP. We recorded the highest growth in this country, the best foreign reserves. We reduce unemployment. You know that we can do it.”

He added that Wike is the “topmost” governor in the PDP in terms of projects, youth employment, and security.

APC fires back at Atiku

Reacting to Atiku’s vituperations, the APC said Nigeria will not return to its past years under PDP. The ruling party through its National Secretary, John Akpanudoedehe, said the PDP was in power for 16 years, yet there is nothing to show for the time spent.

His words: “Alhaji Atiku Abubakar ought to know that Nigerians can never return to Egypt again. They cannot vote the PDP in 2023 having tested the party and known that it is a failure. In other words, nothing good can come out of PDP/

“They were there for 16 years without anything to show for it; achievements of our party less than eight years in power have eclipsed the PDP 16 wasted years. APC is not in the class with the PDP in many ways.”

While debate over zoning seems to have taken the centre stage ahead of the next general election as power is expected to shift to the South after Buhari’s eight years, the question is: Will Atiku jettison his presidential ambition in 2023?

The former vice president alone can proffer answer(s) to this puzzle, but not after weighing the implications of whatever choice he makes.

Atiku would be 77 by 2023, when Buhari would be bowing out of office, so the question is, does the former vice president has the strength for run for Africa’s most populous country’s plum job. Another factor that may guide Atiku in taking a decision on the 2023 presidency is the power sharing arrangement between the north and southern parts of the country.

On paper, power is expected to shift to the southern part of the country, given the zoning arrangement between Nigeria’s two geographical divides – North and South, which took effect from 1999.

However, there are indications that zoning or power shift is likely to be discarded this time if emerging developments in the polity are anything to go by. The belief before now was that the PDP is likely to zone its presidential ticket to the North given the body language of the party’s leadership.

This conviction is despite the insistence by most southern leaders that anything short of the presidency in 2023 would not be acceptable.

To some members of the PDP, since the last president produced by the party (Jonathan) is from the South, it would be wise for the party to zone its ticket for the 2023 presidential election to the North in line with the party’s zoning arrangement.

But politics being a game of the possible in which nothing is foreclosed, most analysts believe that Atiku remains the best option for the main opposition party given his network across the country.

(Adapted from New Telegraph)

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