Eurasia Group, the world’s leading global political risk research and consulting firm, has tipped All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Gen. Muhamadu Buhari (rtd.), as Nigeria’s next President.

The group’s Africa practice head and Analyst Philippe de Pontet in a write-up yesterday said that there is a 60% probability that Buhari could beat President Goodluck Jonathan in the March 28 election.

Pontet wrote: “The election will still be difficult to call, but our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign.

“Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission. New permanent voting cards and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide …

“While we expected the electoral map to favour Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily-populated southwest around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election.”

Eurasia Group put Jonathan’s approval rating at below the 40% threshold under which incumbents have a hard time getting re-elected.

According to the organisation, “Despite some important military gains against (the Islamic terror group) Boko Haram in the North-East, and a partial exoneration of its oil revenue management in a recent PWC audit, (Jonathan’s) Peoples Democratic Party is starting to look desperate. … (But) it is not clear … that Buhari has a strong economic policy orientation. This uncertainty is a chief risk for investors.”

•Photo shows Buhari.

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